“The sooner the meeting takes place, the more it will be for show”
“The later it is held, the more substantive it will be”
Victor Cha: “North Korea will wait for midterm election results”
Victor Cha: “Trump could invite Kim Jong Un to the G20”
There are forecasts that U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could hold talks as early as between November and December. However, there is a strong possibility that an early meeting would serve merely as a political event for show, and analysts believe that substantial discussions on concrete agendas would only be possible after 2027.
A discussion titled ‘Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit 2.0’ hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States. CSIS YouTube
Vincent Brooks, former Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, stated at a discussion titled “Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit 2.0” hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on the 3rd (local time), “The earliest timing would be between November and the G20 Summit,” adding, “It is more likely to occur after both events have concluded.”
Former Commander Brooks analyzed that North Korea has not completely closed the door to dialogue with the United States, noting that while North Korea continues to use insulting language towards South Korea, it does not employ expressions of the same intensity towards the United States.
He stated, “North Korea is keeping the door open in order not to undermine the possibility of dialogue when they are ready,” but added, “They are not ready at the moment. If they were prepared, they would have sent signals in a different way.”
Brooks anticipated that North Korea and the United States would be interested in establishing an initial contact point this fall. He specifically analyzed that the United States is likely to desire more rapid engagement than North Korea.
He said, “The sooner the meeting takes place, the more it will be for show,” predicting that an early meeting could resemble the North Korea-U.S. summit at Panmunjom in 2019. Conversely, “the later the meeting is held, the more likely it is to include substantive issues,” he added.
He further forecasted that if substantive follow-up discussions led by the two leaders are to occur, they would not take place until sometime after 2027.
Victor Cha: “North Korea Will Wait for Midterm Election Results…Trump Could Invite North Korea to G20”
Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to North Korea last June and took a commemorative photo with Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un. Photo by Yonhap News.
Victor Cha, Senior Fellow for Korea at CSIS, also analyzed that North Korea is likely to wait until this year’s U.S. midterm elections. Cha said, “If North Korea has any interest in meeting President Trump again, they will wait until the latter part of the year,” adding, “After the president is weakened by the November midterm elections, North Korea will think their negotiating power will increase.” He further predicted, “North Korea will definitely wait for the results of the midterm elections before engaging in talks.”
Cha also analyzed that North Korea has its own reasons for seeking contact with the U.S. He explained that North Korea can use its relations with the U.S. as an “active hedge” to enhance its bargaining power with China and Russia.
Cha continued, “North Korea has watched what the U.S. did in Iran and Venezuela, and what it could potentially do in Cuba,” and therefore it is necessary for North Korea to maintain opportunities for contact with President Trump to reduce the potential for U.S. aggression.
In addition, he cited South Korea’s pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines, shipbuilding cooperation, and expanded rights for uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing as factors prompting North Korea to seek dialogue with the U.S. From North Korea’s perspective, it is necessary to discuss the accumulation of new military and nuclear capabilities in South Korea with President Trump.
Cha also mentioned that President Trump could potentially invite Chairman Kim to the upcoming G20 Summit. He explained, “Both leaders prefer summit meetings for show,” and “If President Trump were to invite North Korea to the G20, it would enable the U.S. to attract global attention while hosting the summit.”
Differences Over Trump’s Decision to Suspend US-South Korea Joint Exercises
On the 17th, the South Korean and U.S. military authorities began the regular joint exercise ‘Ulchi Freedom Shield’ (UFS), aimed at defending the Korean Peninsula in case of emergency. Apache helicopters are on standby at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News Agency
The two experts gave different assessments regarding the background of President Trump’s recent directive to scale back US-South Korea joint military exercises. Cha analyzed that since North Korea has refrained from nuclear or long-range ballistic missile tests since the inauguration of Trump’s second term, President Trump interpreted this as “non-threatening and respectful behavior.” Thus, the reduced exercises are seen by President Trump as a kind of reciprocal measure for North Korea’s actions.
In contrast, former Commander Brooks, while acknowledging that scaling back exercises could serve as a signal to open the door for dialogue with North Korea, strongly criticized the manner in which the decision was made. He stated, “Since these are alliance exercises, making such a unilateral decision is, frankly, extremely disrespectful to the alliance.”
Former Commander Brooks pointed out that joint exercises fulfill three functions: maintaining military readiness, reassuring the alliance, and deterring North Korea, China, and Russia. “With the reduction of exercises, readiness, reassurance, and deterrence have all been undermined,” he emphasized.
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He further stressed that the upcoming U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral drill “Freedom Edge” scheduled for next week could help restore some of these functions and that “it is extremely important that this exercise is not canceled.”
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