OpenAI’s unveiling of its artificial general intelligence (AGI) model “Astra” has ignited explosive demand for memory semiconductors, sending earnings forecasts for South Korea’s Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) to record highs. Even as the won-dollar exchange rate has slid into the 1,300-won range, creating an unfavorable environment for exporters, brokerages are lining up with analyses arguing that AI demand will overwhelm the currency headwind.

On September 8, the KOSPI climbed to the 7,100 level in morning trading before profit-taking swept through the market in the afternoon, erasing gains and closing lower. The pullback followed a more than 4% surge the previous day, with retail investors offloading more than 3 trillion won (approximately $2.2 billion) in net selling. The won-dollar exchange rate dipped to the 1,330-won level intraday before rebounding to the low 1,340-won range.

‘Astra’ Upends Memory Supply-Demand Dynamics

Astra demands computational power and data volumes that are difficult to compare with existing generative AI models. As the volume of data that must be retrieved in real time during inference explodes, demand is surging not only for HBM but also for the standard DRAM that underpins it.

The problem is that supply cannot keep pace with accelerating demand. While building a new DRAM fab and reaching mass production typically takes two to three years, Astra’s user base is growing at a steepening weekly pace. According to industry sources, memory inventories at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have fallen to less than ten days’ worth as of the third quarter. Compared with the four to six weeks typically considered normal inventory levels, this is effectively a stock-out situation.

According to the latest survey by market research firm TrendForce, global DRAM industry revenue in the second quarter surged 59.5% quarter-over-quarter to $154.73 billion (approximately 208 trillion won). “Demand growth driven by large language model (LLM) training and the proliferation of AI inference led to increased shipments across various memory products,” TrendForce explained.

Currency Decline Offset by DRAM Boom

The won-dollar exchange rate, which exceeded 1,549 won at the end of June, has recently fallen to the mid-1,300-won range. That represents a decline of more than 200 won, or roughly 13%, in the third quarter alone. For semiconductor companies that receive export payments in dollars, this means that selling the same volume translates into fewer won-denominated profits.

Citi estimated the currency impact on Samsung Electronics alone at approximately 5 trillion won (approximately $3.7 billion). Yet brokerages are raising target prices for both companies rather than cutting them. The calculation is that the money AI will generate will exceed what the exchange rate erodes. Mirae Asset Securities recently raised target prices for both companies, and DB Securities also lifted its target for SK Hynix. The expectation is that increased HBM content and customer diversification will allow AI demand to eclipse the currency headwind.

Foreign investment banks remain equally bullish. Nomura maintains aggressive target prices of 670,000 won (approximately $500) for Samsung Electronics and 4.7 million won (approximately $3,500) for SK Hynix, while Goldman Sachs continues to stand by its KOSPI 12,000 forecast.

According to consensus estimates compiled by financial data provider FnGuide, Samsung Electronics’ third-quarter revenue is projected at 207.2392 trillion won (approximately $154.1 billion) with operating profit of 113.511 trillion won (approximately $84.4 billion). SK Hynix is expected to post revenue of 99.9451 trillion won (approximately $74.3 billion) and operating profit of 78.4467 trillion won (approximately $58.3 billion). The combined operating profit of over 190 trillion won in a single quarter would be a scale difficult to find precedent for, even compared with past semiconductor supercycles.

Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, said, “The competitive race between the U.S. and China to launch new AI models and expand data centers is expected to benefit Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.” He added, “In particular, U.S. AI models are expanding the performance ceiling to open up demand headroom, while China’s efficiency-focused AI models will dramatically lower token costs and accelerate AI democratization.”

Musinsa Pursues KOSPI Listing… Testing a ’10 Trillion Won Valuation’

Musinsa, South Korea’s top fashion platform, has filed for preliminary review for a KOSPI listing, formally kicking off its IPO process. The target is to list in the first half of next year, with market valuations ranging from around 8 trillion won (approximately $5.9 billion) to as high as 10 trillion won (approximately $7.4 billion). At that scale, it would rank among the largest deals in South Korea’s IPO market.

Growth has been rapid. In the first half of this year, the company posted record revenue exceeding 800 billion won (approximately $594.9 million), expanding beyond online fashion into offline retail, beauty, and overseas businesses. However, unlike revenue growth, actual profits have declined. First-half operating profit fell year-over-year.

Adding to the pressure, the Seoul Regional Tax Office’s Investigation Division 4 — nicknamed the “grim reaper of the business world” — is conducting an unscheduled tax audit. With record revenue but shrinking profits, compounded by a tax investigation, attention is focused on how these factors will affect the company’s eventual valuation.

Cryptocurrencies Remain in Wait-and-See Mode

The cryptocurrency market also remained weak. According to Bithumb, as of 3 p.m. that day, Bitcoin was trading at around 106 million won (approximately $79,000), down 0.86% from midnight. Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple all declined as altcoins broadly struggled. Ripple, in particular, fell to the 1,800-won (approximately $1.3) level. The market remains in a wait-and-see posture ahead of major events including U.S. inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Meanwhile, the strengthening won is a positive signal for consumers and the national economy. The possibility has grown that per-capita national income, which had been stuck in the $30,000 range for 12 years, could surpass $40,000 (approximately 54 million won) for the first time this year. However, companies like Hyundai Motor that earn revenue in dollars overseas will see their won-denominated earnings shrink even when selling the same volume. Hyundai Motor is now entering a phase where the “high exchange rate effect” — which had boosted revenue in the second quarter despite declining sales volume — is weakening.