Samsung Electronics is expected to at least double production of its sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) and seventh-generation HBM (HBM4E) next year compared to this year. The outlook is confirmed by plans to increase outsourced cleaning volume for glass carriers used in high-layer-count HBM production from 20,000 wafers per month this year to 50,000 wafers per month next year—a 2.5-fold expansion.
According to semiconductor industry sources on the 20th, Samsung Electronics has decided to significantly increase outsourced cleaning volume for glass carriers, which serve as support structures when thinning HBM DRAM wafers. Glass carriers are temporary glass supports attached beneath wafers to prevent warping or breakage during the grinding and through-hole drilling processes. As stacking layers increase from 8-high to 12-high and 16-high, DRAM chips must be made thinner, making glass carriers increasingly critical.
Glass carrier demand, which stood at roughly 10,000 wafers per month as recently as last year, doubled to 20,000 wafers this year and is set to reach 50,000 wafers next year. Even accounting for the fact that glass carriers can be cleaned and reused, and that usage varies by process integration method and yield, industry analysts estimate that a 2.5-fold increase in related volume translates to at least a doubling of HBM4 and HBM4E production compared to this year.
Samsung Electronics’ HBM yields entering a stable range is cited as the key driver behind the production ramp-up. Yields, which initially fell below 60% at the start of HBM4 mass production, have reportedly climbed to around 80% recently. Given HBM’s complex manufacturing process, a defect in even one of the multiple stacked DRAM dies can render the entire finished product defective, making yield management critical. Higher yields mean more sellable products can be produced with the same equipment and wafer inputs.
Once yields stabilize, the next challenge is supply capacity. As AI accelerator computing performance improves, demand for high-capacity, high-speed HBM is growing rapidly. Without the ability to supply sufficient volume when customers need it, securing technological competitiveness alone is not enough to translate into revenue growth.
Samsung Electronics is accelerating HBM4 supply expansion. The company projected that HBM4 revenue in the third quarter would more than triple quarter-over-quarter. In the second half of the year, HBM4 is expected to account for more than 60% of total HBM revenue. Just three months after announcing HBM4 mass production shipments in February, related revenue surpassed $1 billion (approximately ₩1.4 trillion). Some observers project the figure could exceed $10 billion (approximately ₩14 trillion) by year-end.
In terms of product shipment mix, HBM4 family products are expected to rise from around 40% this year to approximately 80% next year. As HBM4E mass production gains momentum, the product portfolio is being restructured around high-value offerings. HBM4 is reportedly priced at approximately ₩2 million (approximately $1,400) per chip—more than double the price of fifth-generation HBM3E. HBM4E is also expected to command a higher price point than HBM4.
Total HBM production scale is also poised for a step-change increase. Samsung Electronics’ HBM production is projected to grow nearly 40% from approximately 180,000 wafers per month this year to roughly 250,000 wafers per month next year, based on average monthly wafer input.
The expansion of high-value product mix is directly tied to Samsung Electronics’ earnings improvement. The company’s dependence on memory is so high that approximately 97% of its operating profit is estimated to come from the memory business. According to financial data provider FnGuide, the average operating profit estimate for Samsung Electronics this year stands at ₩375.7 trillion (approximately $271.3 billion) based on the most recent month—8.6 times last year’s ₩43.6 trillion (approximately $31.5 billion). Next year’s forecast is ₩561.2 trillion (approximately $405.2 billion), an increase of roughly ₩190 trillion (approximately $137.2 billion) over this year.
The HBM production ramp-up could also impact the general-purpose DRAM market. As more wafers are allocated to HBM production, supply constraints may emerge for general-purpose DRAM used in servers and PCs. This is why Samsung Electronics’ HBM volume expansion is expected to strengthen its pricing leverage in the server and PC DRAM markets.
HBM4E is another variable that will determine the pace of future production increases. In May, Samsung Electronics provided 12-high HBM4E samples to major customers including Nvidia, entering the product qualification phase. Yields at the reliability evaluation stage are reportedly above 70%. However, the actual mass production timeline may vary depending on customer certification progress and market demand. The key question is how quickly Samsung can apply the process optimization and yield improvement experience accumulated with HBM4 to HBM4E.
Market share competition is another factor driving the urgency to expand volume. According to Counterpoint Research, Samsung Electronics’ HBM market share by revenue jumped from 21% in the first quarter to 33% in the second quarter of this year. Over the same period, SK Hynix’s share declined from 58% to 50%. The gap between the two companies narrowed from 37 percentage points in the first quarter to 17 percentage points in the second quarter.
Samsung Electronics’ relatively rapid yield stabilization on HBM4 is attributed to its business structure encompassing memory, foundry, and advanced packaging under one roof. HBM4 incorporates 10nm-class sixth-generation (1c) DRAM and a 4nm-process base die. Because DRAM, base die, and packaging can be integrated within a single company, cross-process optimization was pursued simultaneously from the development stage. As Samsung’s HBM supply increases, foundry business stabilization, profitability improvement, and market share expansion are expected to follow.