Micron is poised to challenge yet another record quarter for revenue, powered by surging AI memory demand and rising prices. With the fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results due on the 30th (local time), expectations are building that revenue will surpass $50 billion (approximately 68.3 trillion won), while the company is rapidly closing the gap with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market behind its HBM4 offerings.

Micron previously issued fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $50 billion ± $1 billion. The company projected gross margin of approximately 86% and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $31 ± $1. According to market research firm TrendForce, Wall Street expects Micron’s fourth-quarter revenue to reach $50.42 billion with EPS of $31.14. That would represent more than a threefold increase in revenue and a more than tenfold increase in EPS compared to the same period last year.

Micron posted revenue of $41.46 billion in the third quarter, a 74% jump from $23.86 billion in the prior quarter. Net income more than doubled sequentially to $28.24 billion, while gross margin, excluding certain one-time items, came in at 84.9%.

HBM4 Production Ramp and Long-Term Contracts Are Key

One of the most closely watched areas in this earnings release is HBM4. Micron is already shipping HBM4 in volume to major customer platforms and supplying qualification samples to multiple customers. The company has stated that HBM4 revenue has already surpassed $1 billion, and that the production ramp of 12-high HBM4 is progressing faster than the previous-generation HBM3E.

Micron has long been viewed as a latecomer in the HBM market relative to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. As such, how quickly the company can expand HBM4 production capacity and how many additional customers it has secured will be key focal points in this earnings release. Industry sources suggest Micron could expand HBM production capacity to around 100,000 wafers per month by the end of this year. With Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also pushing to expand HBM4 and HBM4E production, the supply capacity race among the three players is expected to intensify further.

The expansion of long-term supply agreements is also critical. Micron is known to have signed 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs) to date. The strategy is to lock in stable memory volume through long-term contracts with customers, primarily around AI data centers, to position for future demand growth.

2028 Market Outlook Likely to Determine Stock Direction

Some analysts argue that the key for investors in this earnings release is not near-term results but management’s commentary on the 2028 market outlook. Micron has stated that HBM3E and HBM4 volume is already fully booked through the end of 2027, meaning a substantial portion of next year’s performance is largely predictable. In contrast, the supply-demand situation beyond 2028 remains uncertain.

During the third-quarter earnings call in June, management noted that HBM demand has begun to extend into 2028, and that new production capacity is scheduled to come online. If memory prices hold at current elevated levels, 2028 could mark another boom cycle.

Micron’s stock trajectory hinges heavily on investor perceptions of how long the AI-driven upcycle will last. The market already understands that Micron will generate enormous profits in fiscal 2027 and 2028. The question is whether the cycle peak lies more than five years out, or just two to three years away. If management sends positive signals about 2028 or emphasizes tight market supply-demand conditions, it could serve as a catalyst for the stock.

Micron has also put in place safeguards against a cyclical downturn. The strategic customer agreements, most with five-year maturities, are structured as take-or-pay contracts that lock in price ranges and impose minimum purchase obligations. Contracts signed through the third quarter cover approximately 20% of DRAM volume and roughly 33% of NAND volume.

Meanwhile, Micron is investing $100 billion (approximately 136.6 trillion won) to build new manufacturing facilities in upstate New York. The facilities are slated to begin chip production in 2029 or 2030. Recently, Meta Platforms’ successful launch of its AI personal assistant “Muse” has raised expectations for increased CPU demand, lending support to Micron’s share price.