Hyundai Motor Group is projected to overtake Ford for the first time ever in the U.S. market during the third quarter, claiming the No. 3 sales position. The shift comes as surging fuel prices have driven up demand for hybrid vehicles, while American automakers Ford and GM have seen sales contract due to limited hybrid lineups and production disruptions.

According to a forecast released by market research firm Cox Automotive on the 24th (local time), Hyundai Motor Group—combining Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis—is expected to post Q3 U.S. new vehicle sales of 511,421 units, up 6.5% year-over-year. Ford, by contrast, is projected to record just 504,172 units, down 7.1% over the same period.

If the forecast holds, this would mark the first time Hyundai Motor Group has surpassed Ford in the U.S. market on a quarterly basis. The group would rank third in U.S. sales, behind General Motors (GM) and Toyota.

Hybrids Prove the Deciding Factor

Hyundai Motor Group’s surge stems from its hybrid lineup. With international oil prices climbing and U.S. gasoline prices soaring, demand for fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles has grown rapidly. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average U.S. gasoline price has reached $4.48 per gallon (approximately 3.8 liters).

Ford and GM, meanwhile, offer limited hybrid options. GM provides a hybrid version only on the Corvette, while Ford operates hybrids on select models such as the Maverick and F-150 pickup. Erin Keating, senior analyst at Cox, said, “If you don’t have the vehicle to capture consumers where they are, other manufacturers will fill that void.”

Ford has also faced production disruptions. Last year, two separate supplier fires caused setbacks in production and sales of the F-Series pickup truck, a core model in the U.S. market.

Hyundai CEO José Muñoz said in a CNBC interview last month that overtaking Ford in U.S. sales is not the goal, but added that if it happens, it would be the result of sustained focus on product and execution. “We focus on delivering the safest products with the best quality to customers,” he said. “When you do that, you achieve goals that are hard to believe.”

The GM-Toyota Battle for No. 1

Toyota, a hybrid powerhouse, is rapidly closing in on GM, the U.S. sales leader. Cox expects GM’s Q3 sales to fall 5.2% year-over-year to 671,706 units, while Toyota is projected to record 642,707 units, up 2.2%.

The cumulative sales gap for the year has narrowed to under 121,100 units. If Toyota surpasses GM this year, it would mark the second time the Japanese automaker has claimed the annual U.S. sales crown, following 2021 when supply chain disruptions were at their worst.

The shift in sales rankings is notable because it comes as American automakers are doubling down on V8 engines for large pickups and SUVs, aligning with the Trump administration’s rollback of emissions and fuel economy regulations. Yet with high fuel prices persisting, consumers are seeking fuel-efficient vehicles regardless of regulatory easing.

Keating commented on this dynamic, saying, “American manufacturers have made some interesting product decisions.”

Market Outlook Revised Upward

The U.S. auto market itself is showing stronger-than-expected resilience. Cox raised its full-year U.S. new vehicle sales forecast by approximately 2% to 16.1 million units. Jeremy Robb, senior economist at Cox, said, “The auto market has shown considerable resilience this year.”

Meanwhile, Stellantis is expected to see Q3 U.S. sales decline 1.3%, though full-year sales are projected to rise 2.8%, aided by the company’s corporate turnaround plan.