▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor’s Note: ‘AI PRISM’ (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an “artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service” developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.
■ Dollar Strength Reignites: Although the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates at its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, nine of the 18 members projected a hike within the year in the dot plot (Fed members’ rate forecasts), sending the dollar index (DXY) soaring to 101.08, its highest level in one year and one month. Despite the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Korea (BOK) raising rates in succession, an unusual situation continues in which their respective currencies have instead plunged.
■ Semiconductor Concentration Deepens: This month, the daily average buying volume of Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix (000660) swelled to 45.6% of the KOSPI, more than tripling from a year earlier (14.7%). With the two stocks accounting for 54.6% of the entire KOSPI’s market capitalization, extreme volatility unfolded on the 19th, when the intraday gap between the high and low reached 553.87 points.
■ Investors Shift to Defense: After the KOSPI broke through the 9,000 mark, individual investors have shown a clear trend of heavily selling leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and reallocating funds into index and mixed products such as KODEX200. With credit transaction loan balances slightly decreasing and investor deposits also declining, the focus appears to be on risk management rather than chasing the market.
[News of Interest to Financial Product Investors]
– Key Summary: Even though the Middle East war has entered its closing phase some 100-odd days after it began, the dollar index (DXY) soared to 101.08, renewing its highest level in one year and one month. On the 16th of this month, the Bank of Japan ushered in an era of 1% rates for the first time in 31 years, and on the 11th, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 0.25 percentage point for the first time in three years, yet the values of the yen and euro instead fell. The Bank of Korea also repeatedly signaled rate hikes, but the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,527 won, continuing its high-altitude march in the 1,500-won range. The Korea Center for International Finance analyzed that the preference for U.S. assets, powered by the Fed’s hawkish turn and the AI investment cycle, is leading to a recurrence of so-called “US exceptionalism.”
2. Half of KOSPI Buying Is Samsung, hynix… Concentration Triples in a Year
– Key Summary: This month, the daily average buying volume of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reached 45.6% of the entire KOSPI, with the intensity of concentration growing 3.03-fold compared to last January (20.5%). After Samsung Electronics and SK hynix stock prices surged 43.8% and 81.4% respectively last month, driving the KOSPI to quickly break through the 7,000 and 8,000 marks, buying sentiment for the two stocks was maximized. Meanwhile, the daily average buying volume of stocks excluding Samsung Electronics and SK hynix stood at 27.192 trillion won this month, down 6.4% from the previous month. After the launch of single-stock leveraged products, the buying volume of the two stocks relative to the KOSPI by financial investment institutions rose further to 56.7%.
3. ‘9,000-Point’ Held but 86% of Stocks Close Lower… KOSDAQ Plunges 3%
– Key Summary: The KOSPI rose to as high as 9,385.59 early in the session on the 19th, renewing its all-time high, but institutions net-sold 1.2312 trillion won in the stock market, dragging the index down to close at 9,052.42, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. While only 115 KOSPI stocks rose, 787 stocks fell, with 86% of the total declining, making the “gap between the index and sentiment” clear. The KOSDAQ index was pushed down 3.43% to 966.59 as institutions net-sold 586.7 billion won, with declining stocks reaching 1,490 against 200 advancing stocks. Geopolitical variables such as instability in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations and suspected violations of export controls on ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment to China also acted as material that heightened intraday volatility.
4. Burdened by Highs… Retail Investors Sell Leverage, Buy Index Products
– Key Summary: After the KOSPI broke through the 9,000 mark, over the past week (June 12-19), large amounts of funds flowed out of leveraged and semiconductor products in the ETF market, including 1.2005 trillion won from KODEX Leverage and 663.9 billion won from TIGER Semiconductor TOP10. In contrast, funds concentrated in index and mixed ETFs, with 681.3 billion won flowing into KODEX200 and 245.9 billion won into TIGER U.S. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500. The RISE Samsung Electronics SK hynix Bond Mixed 50, a bond-mixed ETF that invests in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix while also holding bonds, also saw 191.8 billion won flow in, confirming demand for volatility cushioning. The credit transaction loan balance slightly decreased to 37.9796 trillion won, and investor deposits also declined to 128.4086 trillion won, leaving the so-called “debt-fueled investing” phenomenon limited.
▶Go to article: Strong Dollar Even as Middle East War Winds Down… ‘Tightening Prescriptions’ Fail for Yen, Euro, Won
▶Go to article: Meritz Targets MBK Again… “How Can You Not Guarantee After Earning 1 Trillion Won from Homeplus Investment?”
