Speakers hold a discussion at the Korea Economic Association seminar “2026 Korean Economic Outlook: A Turning Point of Opportunities and Risks,” held at the FKI Tower in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, on the 25th. Reporter Kim Yun-su
While Korea’s economy is growing sharply thanks to semiconductor exports, concerns have emerged that failure to overcome its reliance on memory chips could lead to an economic downturn down the road. Experts agreed that the country must secure new artificial intelligence (AI) game-changer technologies through innovation, and to do so should focus on future investment rather than distributing immediate gains.
Doh Young-woong, a senior research fellow at the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI), spoke as a presenter at a seminar titled “2026 Korean Economic Outlook: A Crossroads of Opportunity and Risk,” held by the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) at the FKI Tower in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, on Tuesday. “If anything, an economic structure dependent on semiconductors is a risk rather than an opportunity,” he said. “For it to be an opportunity, the semiconductor industry would have to trend upward over the long term, but it is inherently a cyclical industry, so it inevitably carries the risk of economic volatility.”
Doh paid particular attention to the fact that the current semiconductor export boom is a result of soaring DRAM memory prices. The quantity of DRAM that big tech companies need is similar to before, but as prices simply rose, it creates the illusion that big tech firms have significantly increased their investment in memory, he said. With export volumes similar, if prices stabilize, export performance could fall sharply.
In fact, according to KERI, DRAM export value rose 272.8% in January through April this year compared with the same period a year earlier, but volume increased by only 5.4%. “If big tech is buying just one memory chip as before, but spending has increased because prices rose, we need to examine whether they have actually expanded capital expenditure (CAPEX),” Doh said. “This can be seen as an AI bubble.” He also cited as risks to Korea’s economy an export structure in which the proportions of trade with the U.S. and China shift significantly depending on international circumstances, along with supply chain concerns that have deepened due to the recent Middle East conflict.
“Just as Elon Musk lowered launch costs with rocket recovery technology and revolutionized the space industry, competing countries are pursuing technological innovation in the semiconductor field by cultivating top talent,” Doh warned. “If technological innovation that replaces DRAM memory occurs in a competing country, Korea, which is heavily concentrated in memory, could be dealt a blow.” He added: “Korea must build up supply leadership across the entire semiconductor value chain, encompassing not only memory but also design and back-end processing.”
Regarding this, Lee Seung-seok, a senior research fellow at KERI, urged companies to increase future investment, including CAPEX, rather than focusing on distributing the current high-growth gains. “I agree with the premise that the warmth of growth should be shared evenly among economic players,” he said, “but because semiconductors are a capital-intensive industry, reinvestment in facilities is important.”
Yoon Sang-ha, director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance Department at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, said, “We need to do something while we are in the window during which we hold pricing power over big tech for semiconductors.” Yoo Jong-woo, head of the research center at Korea Investment & Securities, said, “It is the government’s role to make it more advantageous for companies to invest domestically rather than abroad, so that the current semiconductor boom leads to structural growth.”