Global investors are zeroing in on South Korea as a “semiconductor super week” unfolds, combining earnings releases from the country’s top chipmakers with a landmark U.S. listing. Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) preliminary second-quarter results and SK Hynix’s (000660.KS) American Depositary Receipt (ADR) debut on Nasdaq are converging in the same week, creating a pivotal moment that could determine the trajectory of a semiconductor sector battered by extreme volatility over fears of slowing artificial intelligence investment.

According to the financial investment industry on July 5, Samsung Electronics will disclose its preliminary second-quarter 2026 operating results on July 7. The securities firm consensus compiled by financial data provider FnGuide points to revenue of approximately 169.4 trillion won (approximately $110.7 billion) and operating profit of roughly 85.5 trillion won (approximately $55.9 billion). That represents an 18-fold surge from the 4.7 trillion won (approximately $3.1 billion) in operating profit recorded a year earlier, and nearly double last year’s full-year operating profit of 43.6 trillion won (approximately $28.5 billion) — marking the largest quarterly result in the company’s history. Compared with the first quarter’s operating profit of 57.2 trillion won (approximately $37.4 billion), the figure reflects a roughly 49.5% increase.

The stellar performance is driven by supercharged memory semiconductor prices. Securities analysts estimate that DRAM average selling prices (ASP) rose approximately 45% to 55% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, while NAND flash prices climbed about 58% to 65%. KB Securities projected Samsung’s second-quarter operating profit at 90.2 trillion won (approximately $58.9 billion), assuming a 55% surge in DRAM ASP and a 60% jump in NAND flash. Meritz Securities cited a figure of 99.3 trillion won (approximately $64.9 billion) before reflecting performance bonus provisions, raising the possibility of breaching the 100 trillion won mark.

However, massive performance bonus provisions loom as a key variable for second-quarter results. Samsung’s labor and management agreed last month to establish a special management performance bonus for the semiconductor (DS) division, funded by 10.5% of the division’s operating profit, with first-half provisions estimated at 19 trillion to 25 trillion won (approximately $12.4 billion to approximately $16.3 billion). As a result, Korea Investment & Securities lowered its operating profit estimate from 95.85 trillion won to 86.05 trillion won (approximately $56.2 billion), while Shinhan Investment Corp. cut its forecast from 89.86 trillion won to 82.1 trillion won (approximately $53.6 billion). “We have reflected performance bonus provisions in the high-10-trillion-won range, but the actual profit-generating capacity excluding the provision effect is estimated to have exceeded the 100 trillion won threshold,” said Kim Hyung-tae, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Corp.

SK Hynix is also expected to deliver record second-quarter results. The securities firm consensus points to revenue of approximately 83.4 trillion won (approximately $54.5 billion) and operating profit in the 63 trillion to 64 trillion won range (approximately $41.2 billion to approximately $41.8 billion). KB Securities forecast operating profit of 69 trillion won (approximately $45.1 billion), while NH Investment & Securities projected 66.2 trillion won (approximately $43.3 billion). Since SK Hynix has been processing performance bonus-related expenses each quarter through its excess profit distribution system since 2023, its provision volatility is smaller than Samsung’s.

The global memory industry’s earnings strength has already been confirmed. U.S.-based Micron Technology reported operating profit of $33.32 billion (approximately 51 trillion won) for its fiscal third quarter (March-May 2026), a 15.4-fold increase from a year earlier.

SK Hynix’s ADR listing on Nasdaq, scheduled for July 10 (local time), is another major event. The issuance size is approximately 45.5 trillion won (approximately $29.7 billion), representing about 2.5% of total outstanding shares. HSBC raised its target price for SK Hynix from 2.9 million won to 4 million won (approximately $2,614), forecasting that “the ADR will improve accessibility for global investors and command a 20% premium.” Jung Min-kyu, an analyst at Sang Sang In Securities, noted that “with the high-profit phase and expansion of long-term supply agreements (LTA) reducing earnings volatility, and the ADR listing eliminating the discount relative to global peers, this is a period where both earnings upgrades and revaluation factors are operating simultaneously.”

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s TSMC will also release its June revenue data on July 10, which is expected to serve as a barometer for AI accelerator and foundry demand. TSMC’s second-quarter earnings release is scheduled for July 16.

South Korea’s stock market has experienced extreme volatility this week. Last week, the Kospi closed at 8,088.34, down 3.84% from the prior week, and at one point during intraday trading fell to the 7,370 level. Investment sentiment chilled sharply after Meta mentioned entering the cloud business by utilizing surplus computing resources, raising concerns about Big Tech’s AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) slowdown, compounded by Apple’s announcement of product price increases due to rising memory costs, which could dampen consumption. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.27% and 5.45% on July 1 and 2, respectively, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares repeatedly swung by around 10% in a single day.

Foreign investors net sold approximately 19.84 trillion won (approximately $13.0 billion) on the Kospi alone last week, offloading 7.69 trillion won (approximately $5.0 billion) in Samsung Electronics and 8.28 trillion won (approximately $5.4 billion) in SK Hynix. In contrast, retail investors net purchased 13.45 trillion won (approximately $8.8 billion) across the two stocks, stepping in to defend what local media have dubbed “Samjeon-nix.” However, investor deposits fell below 120 trillion won (approximately $78.4 billion) for the first time in two and a half months, raising concerns about weakening retail buying power.

JPMorgan emphasized in a recent report that “the second-quarter earnings season will serve as a watershed moment determining the direction of memory cycle reassessment,” adding that investors should “closely monitor the form and scale of long-term supply contracts disclosed by each memory player during earnings releases, as well as supply constraint conditions at major memory companies.” Kim Jong-min, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said, “The market stands at an inflection point where doubts about an AI peak must be resolved with numbers,” diagnosing that “it is reasonable to lean toward a scenario where AI profitability meets expectations and CAPEX exceeds market forecasts, driving an AI semiconductor-led rally.”

iM Securities raised its full-year operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics from 340 trillion won to 360 trillion won (approximately $235.2 billion), assuming an additional 15% to 20% increase in memory prices in the third quarter. KB Securities forecast that while memory supply will remain extremely constrained through next year, demand driven by AI proliferation will grow rapidly, with the supply shortage taking at least two years to resolve. The fact that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are pursuing the construction of a semiconductor cluster worth approximately 800 trillion won (approximately $522.8 billion) in South Korea’s Honam region is also seen as an investment premised on long-term demand expansion.

The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, to be released on July 8, are another key variable. While the benchmark interest rate was held steady at 3.50% to 3.75% per annum at that meeting, half of the committee members anticipated at least one rate hike this year, drawing attention to discussions on the need for additional tightening and inflation risks. However, with WTI crude oil prices dipping below $70 per barrel, inflationary pressure from rising energy costs is easing somewhat.

Securities analysts are leaning toward the possibility that investment sentiment in the semiconductor sector will recover starting with Samsung’s earnings release. Na Jung-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, “If Samsung’s operating profit is confirmed as a significant upside surprise exceeding consensus, it could act as a signal of memory market strength and serve as a catalyst to shift selling sentiment toward holding and chasing buys.” Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, also forecast that “if second-quarter results are better than expected, a strong upward reversal is anticipated, and barring a shock, a sentiment turnaround is possible through the resolution of uncertainty and a reassessment of undervaluation appeal.”

Meanwhile, the average target prices set by securities firms for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stand at 495,800 won (approximately $324) and 3.44 million won (approximately $2,249), respectively, representing upside potential of approximately 60.2% and 41.9% from their July 3 closing prices. The combined second-quarter operating profit estimate for all listed South Korean companies stands at 206.85 trillion won (approximately $135.2 billion), virtually certain to set a new quarterly record and representing an approximately 32% increase from the first quarter’s 156.32 trillion won (approximately $102.1 billion).