South Korean brokerages are sharply divided over the upside potential for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), the two stocks that led the first-half market rally. The divergence stems from a fundamental debate: whether semiconductors should still be viewed as a cyclical industry sensitive to economic cycles, or whether they should be revalued as a structural growth industry underpinned by AI-era demand.<\/p>\n
The most conservative outlook comes from BNK Investment & Securities, which set Samsung Electronics’ target price at \u20a9300,000 (approximately $212) and SK Hynix at \u20a91.48 million (approximately $1,048). Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, explained: “Hyperscalers’ AI capital expenditure is pivoting toward cost efficiency. With a significant portion of investment reliant on borrowing, doubts about funding are growing amid rising interest rates and money market instability.”<\/p>\n
In contrast, Korea Investment & Securities raised its Samsung Electronics target from \u20a9590,000 to \u20a9650,000 (approximately $460). Chae Min-suk, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, said: “Multi-year contracts with a five-year baseline will reduce the likelihood of the supply gluts that recurred in past cycles. Memory supply shortages will intensify further into the second half of this year and next year.” The firm also sharply raised its SK Hynix target from \u20a93.8 million to \u20a94.7 million (approximately $3,329) \u2014 more than triple BNK Investment & Securities’ target of \u20a91.48 million.<\/p>\n
Kiwoom Securities on the 10th lowered its Samsung Electronics target from \u20a9390,000 to \u20a9350,000 (approximately $248), and SK Hynix from \u20a92.2 million to \u20a92.1 million (approximately $1,487) \u2014 just ten days after issuing its previous targets on the 31st of last month. Park Yu-ak, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, pointed to high memory prices causing smartphone makers to turn conservative on purchases, along with notebook and PC memory demand likely falling short of early-year expectations.<\/p>\n
Other brokerages are also lowering their outlooks. Samsung Securities cut its targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix from \u20a9500,000 to \u20a9400,000 (approximately $283) and from \u20a93.5 million to \u20a93 million (approximately $2,125), respectively. Shinhan Investment & Securities also significantly reduced its Samsung Electronics target from \u20a9590,000 to \u20a9450,000 (approximately $319), and SK Hynix from \u20a94.2 million to \u20a92.7 million (approximately $1,912).<\/p>\n
Target Price Gap of 15x \u2014 Investor Confusion Mounts<\/p>\n
As the divergence among brokerages widens, the gap between target prices has become unprecedented. Based on Samsung Electronics’ closing price of \u20a9274,500 (approximately $194) on the 14th, the upside to the lowest target of \u20a9300,000 is 9.3%, while reaching the highest target of \u20a9650,000 would require the stock to rise 136.8%. That represents a roughly 15-fold difference in expected returns.<\/p>\n
The same applies to SK Hynix. Based on the same day’s closing price of \u20a91.645 million (approximately $1,165), BNK Investment & Securities’ target of \u20a91.48 million is actually below the current share price, while Korea Investment & Securities’ target of \u20a94.7 million implies additional upside of 185.7%.<\/p>\n
The following table shows target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix by major brokerage:<\/p>\n
BrokerageSamsung Electronics TargetSK Hynix TargetKorea Investment & Securities\u20a9650,000\u20a94.7 millionSamsung Securities\u20a9400,000\u20a93 millionShinhan Investment & Securities\u20a9450,000\u20a92.7 millionKiwoom Securities\u20a9350,000\u20a92.1 millionBNK Investment & Securities\u20a9300,000\u20a91.48 million<\/p>\n
Note: Target prices announced by each brokerage as of August 2026. Korea Investment & Securities raised its targets; the other four brokerages lowered theirs.<\/p>\n
Investor confusion is growing amid the conflicting forecasts. One retail investor said: “When I see target prices for the same stock differing by two or three times, it makes me think even institutions can’t predict this market, and that’s frightening. It even makes me consider pulling out all my investment.”<\/p>\n
Bearish Case: ‘2027 DRAM Slowdown’ \u2014 Bullish Case: ‘Prolonged Supply Shortage’<\/p>\n
The common rationale among brokerages that lowered targets is concern over slowing DRAM operating profit growth. Kiwoom Securities projects Samsung Electronics’ DRAM operating profit next year at \u20a9278 trillion (approximately $196.9 billion), down 6% year-over-year. SK Hynix is forecast at \u20a9180 trillion (approximately $127.5 billion), down 10% year-over-year.<\/p>\n
Given this year’s already explosive profit growth, next year’s growth rate is bound to contract. Additionally, China’s CXMT expanding production capacity in DRAM \u2014 moving beyond PC products into server-grade supply \u2014 is cited as another headwind.<\/p>\n
However, the prevailing view is that HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) performance growth is expected regardless of the slowdown in commodity memory profitability. Park Yu-ak said: “Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix HBM shipments are projected to increase 109% and 46% year-over-year, respectively. Samsung Electronics in particular is expected to reclaim the No. 1 position in HBM.”<\/p>\n
The bullish case rests on sustained AI investment and prolonged memory supply shortages. Chae Min-suk assessed that multi-year contracts will reduce the likelihood of oversupply recurring. Large-scale shareholder return expectations are also cited as a revaluation catalyst. Samsung Electronics plans to announce its next shareholder return policy, including special dividends, in the third quarter, and KB Securities estimates total shareholder returns over the next three years could reach \u20a9600 trillion to \u20a9700 trillion (approximately $495.8 billion). SK Hynix also plans to announce additional shareholder return measures in the third quarter.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the number of retail shareholders in “national stock” Samsung Electronics approached 8 million in the first half of this year, hitting an all-time high. According to Samsung Electronics’ semi-annual report, retail shareholders totaled 7,971,242 as of the end of June \u2014 up approximately 2.92 million from 5,049,085 at the end of June last year. SK Hynix’s retail shareholder count stood at 3,461,526, up 2,779,855 in one year. Combined retail shareholders of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have now surpassed 11 million.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"South Korean brokerages are sharply divided over the upside potential for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS),…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":121073,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[42520,62707,644,699,987,11697,43545,42527,127,276,223,984,22728,275],"class_list":["post-121072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-samsung","tag-bnk-investment-securities","tag-chae-min-suk","tag-dram","tag-hbm","tag-kiwoom-securities","tag-korea-investment-securities","tag-lee-min-hee","tag-park-yu-ak","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-electronics","tag-samsung-group","tag-samsung-securities","tag-shinhan-investment-securities","tag-sk-hynix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121072"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121072\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/121073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}