said in August<\/a> that he expected to meet North Korea\u2019s Kim again in 2026. Just a day before his comment, the Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that Trump had privately discussed with aides the possibility of meeting Kim during his expected November trip to China for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen.\u00a0<\/p>\nIn response, Kim\u2019s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong said on Aug 19 that she was not aware of any communication between her brother and Trump, but acknowledged that her brother still had \u201cgood memories and feelings\u201d about Trump.<\/p>\n
But on Sept 1, South Korea\u2019s spy agency told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing that a Trump-Kim summit could happen \u201cat any time\u201d, citing signs of dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.<\/p>\n
On Sept 2, speaking at a meeting of overseas advisers on Korean Peninsula peace, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung reiterated his pledge to create \u201cconditions for constructive discussions to build trust and resume dialogue between North Korea and the United States\u201d.<\/p>\n
He added that \u201cpeace on the Korean Peninsula ensures the security of North-east Asia and also world peace\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Based on these recent developments, Cheong Seong-Chang, vice-president of the Seoul-based think tank the Sejong Institute, raised his estimate of the chances of a fourth Trump-Kim summit this year from 10 per cent to 60 per cent, during a press briefing on Sept 3 organised by the Seoul Foreign Correspondents\u2019 Club.<\/p>\n
Speaking on the topic of a possible US-North Korea summit\u2019s impact on South Korea and the US-South Korea alliance, Cheong said a fourth summit was less likely to be a \u201cdenuclearisation summit\u201d, which was the case for the previous Trump-Kim meetings, and more likely to focus on nuclear risk management and arms control.<\/p>\n
Trump and Kim met three times, once in 2018 and twice in 2019, during Trump\u2019s first term in 2017-2021. But the collapse of their second summit in Hanoi in 2019 ultimately derailed the diplomatic process, contributing to a prolonged freeze in inter-Korean relations.<\/p>\n
Given the shift in focus from denuclearisation this time round, Cheong warned that the substance of any summit negotiations would be critical for Seoul, particularly if Trump prioritises reducing threats to the US mainland over addressing the security concerns of its Asian allies.<\/p>\n
One example he cited was the need for South Korea to guard against a possible deal that limits North Korea\u2019s intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental US while leaving its shorter-range, nuclear-capable missiles largely intact.<\/p>\n
Such an agreement could reduce the nuclear threat to the US while leaving South Korea and Japan exposed to North Korea\u2019s nuclear and missile capabilities.<\/p>\n
An agreement that is judged a success in Washington and Pyongyang but leaves the region less secure would be more dangerous, Cheong said.<\/p>\n
Another red line for Seoul, Cheong said, would be any US agreement to suspend indefinitely the combined US-South Korea military exercises which are critical to the defence preparedness of the South against potential aggression from the North.<\/p>\n
Such military exercises are a major friction point for Pyongyang, which routinely denounces them as aggressive rehearsals for war and acts of \u201chostility and provocation\u201d.<\/p>\n
Most recently, it threatened a \u201chardline response\u201d to trilateral military drills involving South Korea, the US and Japan, scheduled to be held on Jeju island from Sept 7 to 11.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would not be a balanced bargain if North Korea continues to produce fissile material and nuclear warheads while Seoul and Washington suspend their exercises for an extended period,\u201d Cheong said.<\/p>\n
He noted that Pyongyang is unlikely to agree to a \u201cverifiable freeze\u201d on fissile material production, particularly in the early stages of negotiations.<\/p>\n
He said any benefits offered to North Korea, including broad sanctions relief, should be provided in stages and calibrated to the extent to which Pyongyang actually reduces its nuclear threat and accepts verification.<\/p>\n
Cheong also warned that Seoul cannot afford to be \u201ca bystander or a mere cheerleader\u201d at a Trump-Kim summit, but must instead \u201cbe an architect of the negotiating framework\u201d to protect its interests.<\/p>\n
Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Seoul\u2019s Sogang University\u2019s Graduate School of International Studies, shared the same assessment. He was speaking at the same briefing as Cheong.<\/p>\n
Given the \u201cimmense pressure\u201d that the US-South Korea alliance is currently under, he expressed concern that another round of Trump-Kim summitry could take place \u201con a very different trajectory\u201d, with Washington and Pyongyang potentially reaching an understanding at the expense of South Korea\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n
Bilateral relations between the US and South Korea have hit repeated speed bumps since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.<\/p>\n
The latest came when Trump abruptly announced on Truth Social on Aug 17 that the allies would substantially scale back their joint military drills<\/a>, just hours before they were due to begin.<\/p>\nThe professor described Trump\u2019s unilateral decision, made without prior consultation with Seoul, as a \u201cdiplomatic breach\u201d, saying the announcement blindsided Seoul and damaged trust between the allies.<\/p>\n
In response to The Straits Times\u2019 question about what South Korea can do to ensure its interests are not sidelined in a future Trump-Kim meeting amid strained ties with Washington, he said Seoul realistically holds limited leverage as the \u201cjunior partner\u201d in the alliance.<\/p>\n
South Korea should instead continue to demonstrate its strategic value to the Trump administration, highlighting its importance to the US in areas including shipbuilding, semiconductors and nuclear energy cooperation, he said.<\/p>\n
The professor also said he believed that, while Trump may be powerful, \u201csome semblance of checks and balances remains in the American political system\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe just have to continue to work hard to convince the Trump administration, the American policymakers, that we are an indispensable ally,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"SEOUL \u2013 As speculation mounts over a possible Trump-Kim summit before the end of 2026, experts have warned…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":142316,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[141,31,34],"class_list":["post-142315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-korea","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-korea","tag-north-korea"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/142316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/korea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}