{"id":170584,"date":"2026-05-06T02:32:55","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:32:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/170584\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T02:32:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:32:55","slug":"geguzes-oru-prognoze-laukia-siltesnis-ir-dregnesnis-menuo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/170584\/","title":{"rendered":"Gegu\u017e\u0117s or\u0173 prognoz\u0117: laukia \u0161iltesnis ir dr\u0117gnesnis m\u0117nuo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Remiantis \u201eECMWF\u201c modelio duomenimis, vidutin\u0117 gegu\u017e\u0117s m\u0117nesio temperat\u016bra tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti apie 1 \u00b0C auk\u0161tesn\u0117 nei daugiamet\u0117 norma, kuri Lietuvoje siekia +12,5 \u00b0C. Taip pat prognozuojama, kad krituli\u0173 kiekis gali vir\u0161yti norm\u0105 15\u201330 procent\u0173.<\/p>\n<p>Pana\u0161ias tendencijas rodo ir \u201eCFSv2\u201c ilgalaiki\u0173 prognozi\u0173 modelis. Jis numato, kad temperat\u016bra bus ma\u017edaug 0,5\u20131 \u00b0C auk\u0161tesn\u0117 u\u017e vidurk\u012f, o krituli\u0173 kiekis gali b\u016bti iki 20\u201330 procent\u0173 didesnis nei \u012fprasta.<\/p>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/61b3e810-d740-496b-8a23-0c926a0aab65.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Pavasari\u0161ki orai\"\/>      <\/p>\n<p>Tendencijos: \u0161iluma su didesniu dr\u0117gm\u0117s kiekiu<\/p>\n<p>Apibendrinus skirting\u0173 modeli\u0173 duomenis, galima tik\u0117tis, kad gegu\u017e\u0117 bus bent \u0161iek tiek \u0161iltesn\u0117 ir dr\u0117gnesn\u0117 nei vidutini\u0161kai.<\/p>\n<p>Tai reik\u0161t\u0173 da\u017enesnius lietus ir ma\u017eesn\u0119 sausros tikimyb\u0119, nors pavieni\u0173 saus\u0173 ar v\u0117sesni\u0173 dien\u0173 tikrai nei\u0161vengsime.<\/p>\n<p>\u012edomu tai, kad paskutin\u012f kart\u0105 Lietuvoje dr\u0117gnesnis nei \u012fprastai m\u0117nuo buvo tik 2025 met\u0173 spalis. Nuo to laiko visi m\u0117nesiai buvo sausesni u\u017e daugiamet\u012f vidurk\u012f, tod\u0117l prognozuojamas dr\u0117gnesnis gegu\u017e\u0117s laikotarpis gal\u0117t\u0173 nutraukti \u0161i\u0105 sausros tendencij\u0105.<\/p>\n<p>Kaip gegu\u017e\u0117s atrod\u0117 ankstesniais metais?<\/p>\n<p>Pastar\u0173j\u0173 met\u0173 duomenys rodo gana didel\u012f svyravim\u0105:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>2021\u20132022 ir 2025 met\u0173 gegu\u017e\u0117s buvo \u0161altesn\u0117s nei \u012fprasta<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>2023 met\u0173 gegu\u017e\u0117 buvo artima daugiametei normai<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>2024 met\u0173 gegu\u017e\u0117 i\u0161siskyr\u0117 vasari\u0161ka \u0161iluma<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/f30dc5c7-01df-45bd-a881-b388eed13be5.jpg\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Pavasari\u0161ki orai\"\/>      <\/p>\n<p>K\u0105 tai rei\u0161kia prakti\u0161kai?<\/p>\n<p>Nors prognoz\u0117s rodo \u0161iltesn\u012f ir lietingesn\u012f m\u0117nes\u012f, svarbu suprasti, kad ilgalaikiai modeliai negali tiksliai numatyti kasdienio oro. Tod\u0117l gegu\u017e\u0117 gali pasi\u017eym\u0117ti kontrastais \u2013 nuo \u0161ilt\u0173 ir lieting\u0173 period\u0173 iki trump\u0173 v\u0117sesni\u0173 ar sausesni\u0173 etap\u0173.<\/p>\n<p>Trumpai tariant, jei prognoz\u0117s pasitvirtins, gegu\u017e\u0117 Lietuvoje tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti palankesn\u0117 augalijai d\u0117l didesnio dr\u0117gm\u0117s kiekio, ta\u010diau planuojant veiklas lauke verta pasiruo\u0161ti da\u017enesniam lietui.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Remiantis \u201eECMWF\u201c modelio duomenimis, vidutin\u0117 gegu\u017e\u0117s m\u0117nesio temperat\u016bra tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti apie 1 \u00b0C auk\u0161tesn\u0117 nei daugiamet\u0117 norma, kuri&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":170585,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[25,30,31,34,35,26827,24,12584,32,33,37,39,36,38,40,23,22,260,736,28,29,26,27],"class_list":{"0":"post-170584","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lietuva","8":"tag-antrastes","9":"tag-breaking-news","10":"tag-breakingnews","11":"tag-featured-news","12":"tag-featurednews","13":"tag-geguze","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-krituliai","16":"tag-latest-news","17":"tag-latestnews","18":"tag-lietuva","19":"tag-lietuviu","20":"tag-lithuania","21":"tag-lithuanian","22":"tag-lt","23":"tag-naujienos","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-orai","26":"tag-oru-prognoze","27":"tag-populiariausios-naujienos","28":"tag-populiariausiosnaujienos","29":"tag-top-stories","30":"tag-topstories"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lt\/116525295757686842","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170584\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/170585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}