2030 European GDP Per Capita Forecast: Ireland Overtakes Luxembourg - News and Statistics

Apr 20, 2026

An analysis of economic projections by Euronews Business indicates changing standings in GDP per capita across Europe. According to International Monetary Fund data, Ireland is forecast to lead in purchasing power parity terms by 2030, moving ahead of Luxembourg, which is expected to hold the top position in 2025. Experts note that Ireland’s gross domestic product figure is significantly influenced by multinational corporate activity, suggesting alternative measures like gross national income may provide a more accurate picture of domestic economic output.

Norway, Switzerland, and Denmark are projected to complete the top five, maintaining stable rankings. Among Europe’s five largest economies, Germany is positioned highest at 12th, followed by France at 15th and the United Kingdom at 16th. Italy and Spain are ranked 18th and 22nd, respectively. The lowest nine positions in the ranking are primarily occupied by European Union candidate countries, with Ukraine, Kosovo, and Moldova at the bottom. Turkey is an exception among these candidates, projected to rank 29th, above the EU members Bulgaria, Latvia, and Greece.

Most countries are expected to see minimal movement in their standings. Greece is forecast to experience the most significant decline, falling three places. Cyprus is projected to make the largest gain, rising three positions. The difference between nominal GDP per capita and purchasing power parity rankings reveals divergent economic stories. Several nations, including Malta, Romania, Poland, and Turkey, show considerably stronger purchasing power relative to their nominal figures. Conversely, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Iceland, and Latvia have purchasing power rankings that lag behind their nominal positions.

The disparity at the top of the purchasing power table is pronounced. Ireland and Luxembourg are projected to be far ahead of other nations. Following them, Norway and Switzerland are both expected to exceed a specific high threshold. Excluding Ireland and Luxembourg, Denmark leads the remaining EU countries with a projected figure nearly double that of Greece, which is the lowest among EU members. Among the major economies, Germany shows the highest purchasing power, with Spain the weakest, representing a gap of approximately 31 percent.

The economic divide is more evident outside the European Union. Nearly all candidate countries are projected to fall below a certain threshold, with several significantly lower, roughly half the level of Greece. In nominal euro terms, the range across the 41 countries studied is vast, from a low figure in Ukraine to a high one in Luxembourg. Within the EU, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria follow the leaders. Germany ranks 10th overall, the only one of Europe’s five largest economies in the top ten, with the United Kingdom close behind. Non-EU nations Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway are all positioned in the overall top five. The broader geographic pattern persists, with Northern and Western European economies at the top and Eastern Europe, particularly candidate countries, trailing behind.

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