Sergejs Lopat\u0146ikovs \u2014 Amerikas Savienoto Valstu Delav\u0113ras universit\u0101tes (ASV) matem\u0101tisk\u0101s model\u0113\u0161anas meto\u017eu laboratorijas vad\u012bt\u0101js, agr\u0101k vado\u0161ais p\u0113tnieks Krievijas Maskavas Valsts universit\u0101t\u0113 (MGU). Kop\u0161 2000. gadu s\u0101kuma dz\u012bvo ASV. \u0160o vi\u0146\u0161 raksta sav\u0101 \u00abTelegram\u00bb:<\/p>\n
\u00abVisp\u0101r ASV centieni sevi ierobe\u017eot var noz\u012bm\u0113t scen\u0101rija \u00abpuss\u0101kums\u00bb s\u0101kumu, par ko es rakst\u012bju pirms apm\u0113ram 20 gadiem. Ja \u012bsi:<\/p>\n
1.\u2060 \u2060Man ir ac\u012bmredzama nepiecie\u0161am\u012bba cilv\u0113ces skaitu samazin\u0101t l\u012bdz biolo\u0123iski pamatotam l\u012bmenim \u2014 pat\u012bk tas k\u0101dam vai n\u0113. Re\u0101la ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bga att\u012bst\u012bba ir iesp\u0113jama tikai tad, ja pat\u0113ri\u0146\u0161 sakr\u012bt ar za\u013c\u0101s masas \u0123ener\u0101cijas \u0101trumu, kas der k\u0101 ener\u0123ijas resurss. Apr\u0113\u0137ini r\u0101da, ka tas ir maksimums \u2014 maksimums miljards cilv\u0113ku. Ja run\u0101 par neierobe\u017eoti ilgu past\u0101v\u0113\u0161anu, nevis par horizontu, piem\u0113ram, 200 vai 500 gadiem.<\/p>\n
2.\u2060 \u2060Iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita samazin\u0101\u0161anas veidi ir divi \u2014 caur dzimst\u012bbas samazin\u0101\u0161anu \u2014 pie kritiski zema dzimst\u012bbas l\u012bme\u0146a viena sieviete \u2014 viens b\u0113rns \u2014 tas noz\u012bm\u0113 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita samazin\u0101\u0161anos uz pusi vien\u0101 paaudz\u0113, t.i., aptuveni 25 gados. Attiec\u012bgi, lai sasniegtu tr\u012bsk\u0101r\u0161u samazin\u0101\u0161anos pat \u0161aj\u0101 gad\u012bjum\u0101, kas atrodas t\u0101lu no m\u016bsdienu dinamikas, b\u016btu nepiecie\u0161ami 75 gadi \u2014 tr\u012bs paaudzes, bet re\u0101laj\u0101 dz\u012bv\u0113 tie ir p\u0101ris simtu gadu, kuru dabai ar pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo pat\u0113ri\u0146u var neb\u016bt. Un \u0101trais ce\u013c\u0161 \u2014 ar \u0101tru liel\u0101k\u0101s da\u013cas cilv\u0113ces izn\u012bcin\u0101\u0161anu, nodro\u0161inot taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 garant\u0113tu nepiecie\u0161am\u0101 miljarda izdz\u012bvo\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
3.\u2060 \u2060Pirmais ce\u013c\u0161 ir riskants, jo tas ne\u013cauj nodro\u0161in\u0101t cilv\u0113ces garant\u0113tu izdz\u012bvo\u0161anu, ja atmosf\u0113ras iztur\u012bbas slieksnis tiks sasniegts \u0101tr\u0101k, nek\u0101 cilv\u0113ce saruks l\u012bdz ekosist\u0113mai dro\u0161am l\u012bmenim.<\/p>\n
4.\u2060 \u2060Otrais ce\u013c\u0161 \u2014 t\u0101da k\u0101 in\u017eeniertehniska uzdevuma risin\u0101jums, par ko esmu rakst\u012bjis. Un \u0161o risin\u0101jumu es saucu par puss\u0101kumu. Triks ir taj\u0101, ka, ja probl\u0113mu risina visai cilv\u0113cei, probl\u0113ma k\u013c\u016bst praktiski neatrisin\u0101ma, jo \u0161aj\u0101 gad\u012bjum\u0101 nav fiziskas robe\u017eas starp tiem, kas izdz\u012bvo, un tiem, kas paz\u016bd. Un iesp\u0113jams risin\u0101jums ir biblisk\u0101 \u00ab\u0160\u016bpu\u013ca\u00bb koncepcij\u0101 \u2014 da\u013cas cilv\u0113ces fizisk\u0101 atdal\u012b\u0161ana, kas garant\u0113ti tiek saglab\u0101ta, no t\u0101s, kas garant\u0113ti tiek izn\u012bcin\u0101ta. Veidu iesaka \u0123eogr\u0101fija, kuras b\u016bt\u012bba ir taj\u0101, ka sauszeme sast\u0101v no div\u0101m da\u013c\u0101m: liel\u0101k\u0101s da\u013cas \u2014 kontinenta, kur dz\u012bvo absol\u016btais vair\u0101kums cilv\u0113ces \u2014 tas ir Eir\u0101zija\u2013\u0100frika, un “kontinenta-salas” Amerikas plus izol\u0113tas salu teritorijas, k\u0101 Austr\u0101lija u. tml. Turkl\u0101t cilv\u0113ce jau ir sadal\u012bta starp Kontinentu un Salu nepiecie\u0161am\u0101 proporcij\u0101. Visu Ameriku iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits \u0161odien ir 1,1\u20131,2 miljardi cilv\u0113ku, Zieme\u013camerikas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits \u2014 600 miljoni cilv\u0113ku \u2014 un tie\u0161i tie ir v\u0113lamie pasaules iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaita cipari, kas nepiecie\u0161amas ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bgai att\u012bst\u012bbai.<\/p>\n
Taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 Kontinenta iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits ir tie\u0161i liekais atlikums.<\/p>\n
Es rakst\u012bju, ka tas rada divk\u0101r\u0161a vilin\u0101juma iesp\u0113ju: izn\u012bcin\u0101t visu Kontinenta iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu, saglab\u0101jot Salas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaitu. Un to tehniski var izdar\u012bt. Ja, piem\u0113ram, izplat\u012bt kontinent\u0101 v\u012brusu ar praktiski 100 % letalit\u0101ti, bet P\u0100RTRAUCOT UZ LAIKU jebk\u0101du sazi\u0146u starp Kontinentu un Salu, uzdevums tiktu atrisin\u0101ts. Tehniska gr\u016bt\u012bba \u0161eit ir tikai viena: k\u0101 pasp\u0113t garant\u0113ti norobe\u017eot salu no jebk\u0101diem kontaktiem ar kontinentu. Faktiski tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka sakaru p\u0101rtraukumam j\u0101notiek PIRMS \u0161\u0101das epid\u0113mijas uzs\u0101k\u0161anas \u2014 tas ir pirmais nosac\u012bjums, bet otrais nosac\u012bjums \u2014 vakc\u012bnas esam\u012bba, tehnolo\u0123iski nepieejama kontinent\u0101laj\u0101m valst\u012bm. Pirmo uzdevumu risina kara uzs\u0101k\u0161ana kontinent\u0101, kas \u013cauj “le\u0123it\u012bmi” p\u0101rraut komunik\u0101ciju Kontinents\u2013Sala. Otrais uzdevums jo \u012bpa\u0161i risin\u0101ms, ja vakc\u012bna rad\u012bta uz Salas iepriek\u0161, bet slim\u012bba ir tik strauja, ka nemaz neatst\u0101j Slim\u012bbas haos\u0101 laiku Kontinentam izstr\u0101d\u0101t t\u0101du vakc\u012bnu. P\u0101r\u0113jie izdz\u012bvoju\u0161ie v\u0113l\u0101k var tikt adapt\u0113ti jaunaj\u0101 sabiedr\u012bb\u0101. L\u012bdz\u012bga situ\u0101cija bija XIV gadsimt\u0101, kad m\u0113ris izn\u012bcin\u0101ja, p\u0113c da\u017e\u0101diem apr\u0113\u0137iniem, l\u012bdz 60 % iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju.<\/p>\n
Protams, tas ir antiutopisks scen\u0101rijs. Bet tas ir iev\u0113rojami maz\u0101k riskants nek\u0101, piem\u0113ram, glob\u0101l\u0101 kodolkara scen\u0101rijs. Un v\u0113l \u2014 \u0161is scen\u0101rijs pie\u013cauj vari\u0101cijas, kuras var tikt izmantotas procesa optimiz\u0101cijai.<\/p>\n
P.S. Triks ir taj\u0101, ka no zin\u0101tnisk\u0101 viedok\u013ca aprakst\u012btais scen\u0101rijs ir izpild\u0101ms \u2014 piem\u0113ram, vieglas m\u0101ksl\u012bgas epid\u0113mijas var kalpot k\u0101 izm\u0113\u0123in\u0101jumi meto\u017eu regul\u0113\u0161anai epid\u0113mijai. Un man nav nek\u0101du \u0161aubu, ka, ja elites izlems, ka klimata probl\u0113ma ir tuvu kritiskajam slieksnim, un savlaic\u012bgi neizdodas ierobe\u017eot dzimst\u012bbu, t\u0101s sp\u0113s to \u012bstenot. “Abstraktais hum\u0101nisms” \u2014 t\u0101p\u0113c ar\u012b abstrakts, ka tam nav attiec\u012bbas ar realit\u0101ti,\u00bb nor\u0101d\u012bja amerik\u0101\u0146u zin\u0101tnieks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sergejs Lopat\u0146ikovs \u2014 Amerikas Savienoto Valstu Delav\u0113ras universit\u0101tes (ASV) matem\u0101tisk\u0101s model\u0113\u0161anas meto\u017eu laboratorijas vad\u012bt\u0101js, agr\u0101k vado\u0161ais p\u0113tnieks Krievijas…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101282,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-101281","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-latvia","18":"tag-latvian","19":"tag-latviesu","20":"tag-latviesu-valoda","21":"tag-latviesuvaloda","22":"tag-latvija","23":"tag-lv","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-popularakas-zinas","26":"tag-popularakaszinas","27":"tag-top-stories","28":"tag-topstories","29":"tag-world","30":"tag-world-news","31":"tag-worldnews","32":"tag-zinas","33":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115877916433701583","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101281\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101282"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}