Neskatoties uz vair\u0101kiem volatilit\u0101tes vi\u013c\u0146iem, visas galven\u0101s akt\u012bvu klases \u0161ogad uzr\u0101d\u012bja iespaid\u012bgus rezult\u0101tus, pat ja ASV akcijas zaud\u0113ja impulsu gada beig\u0101s. J\u0101pasaka, ka t\u0101s septi\u0146us m\u0113ne\u0161us p\u0113c k\u0101rtas baud\u012bja reti pieredz\u0113to ralliju, kas \u201cNasdaq\u201d indeksam beidz\u0101s novembr\u012b, bet \u201cS&P 500\u201d indeksam tikai decembr\u012b.<\/p>\n
T\u0101d\u0113j\u0101di \u201cNasdaq Composite\u201d 2025. gad\u0101 pieauga par 20%, bet \u201cS&P 500\u201d indekss \u2013 par 16%, kas jau ir tre\u0161ais gads p\u0113c k\u0101rtas ar pieaugumu divciparu skait\u013cos. Eiropas indeksi turpin\u0101ja p\u0101rsp\u0113t savus amerik\u0101\u0146u kol\u0113\u0123us, ko liel\u0101 m\u0113r\u0101 veicin\u0101ja pievilc\u012bg\u0101kas valu\u0101cijas \u2013 \u201cSTOXX 600\u201d indekss pieauga par 2,7% decembr\u012b un par 36,7% (dol\u0101ru izteiksm\u0113) 2025. gad\u0101, ar\u012b nosl\u0113dzot tre\u0161o gadu ar divciparu pieaugumu.<\/p>\n
Tikm\u0113r Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101 banka (ECB) saglab\u0101ja procentu likmes nemain\u012bgas, turpinot savu datu atkar\u012bgo nost\u0101ju, neskatoties uz m\u0113renajiem izaugsmes r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem. K\u0101 jau tika prognoz\u0113ts, ASV Feder\u0101l\u0101 rezervju sist\u0113ma (FRS) decembra san\u0101ksm\u0113 samazin\u0101ja m\u0113r\u0137a procentu likmi l\u012bdz 3,50\u20133,75% robe\u017eai, izraisot baumas par kvantitat\u012bv\u0101s m\u012bkstin\u0101\u0161anas pas\u0101kumu turpin\u0101\u0161anu. D\u0101rgmet\u0101li m\u0113ne\u0161a laik\u0101 strauji pieauga un turpin\u0101ja sasniegt v\u0113sturiski nebiju\u0161us augstumus, ko turpin\u0101ja veicin\u0101t dol\u0101ra v\u0101jin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s, centr\u0101lo banku pirkumi un \u0123eopolitisk\u0101 nenoteikt\u012bba.<\/p>\n
\u201cSpeci\u0101l\u0101 milit\u0101r\u0101 oper\u0101cija\u201d Trampa stil\u0101<\/p>\n
P\u0113c ASV milit\u0101r\u0101s oper\u0101cijas 2026. gada 3. janv\u0101r\u012b, kuras rezult\u0101t\u0101 tika sag\u016bst\u012bts Venecu\u0113las prezidents Nikolass Maduro, tirgiem bija j\u0101p\u0101rv\u0113rt\u0113 \u0123eopolitisko risku pr\u0113mijas, investoriem spekul\u0113jot, vai \u201cRudais gulbis\u201d var\u0113tu turpin\u0101t piekopt \u0161\u0101du praksi ar\u012b cit\u0101s valst\u012bs. Neraugoties uz notiku\u0161o, akciju tirgi saglab\u0101ja notur\u012bbu \u2013 galvenie ASV un Eiropas indeksi pieauga, ko visai likumsakar\u012bgi veicin\u0101ja k\u0101pums ener\u0123\u0113tikas un aizsardz\u012bbas nozaru akcij\u0101s. \u201cChevron\u201d, kas ir vien\u012bgais ASV naftas gigants ar akt\u012bvu kl\u0101tb\u016btni Venecu\u0113l\u0101 jau kop\u0161 1923. gada, 5. janv\u0101r\u012b, piedz\u012bvoja 5% akciju v\u0113rt\u012bbas pieaugumu, pamatojoties uz cer\u012bb\u0101m par papla\u0161in\u0101tu piek\u013cuvi re\u0123ionam un potenci\u0101liem naftas infrastrukt\u016bras atjauno\u0161anas l\u012bgumiem.<\/p>\n
Defolt\u0101 eso\u0161\u0101s Venecu\u0113las valsts un valsts naftas komp\u0101nijas \u201cPetr\u00f3leos de Venezuela, S.A.\u201d (PDVSA) oblig\u0101cijas piedz\u012bvoja strauju cenu k\u0101pumu, investoriem iecenojot potenci\u0101lo politisko stabiliz\u0101ciju un gaid\u0101mo par\u0101du restrukturiz\u0101ciju. Valsts oblig\u0101ciju (ar dz\u0113\u0161anas termi\u0146u 2026. gad\u0101) cena uzk\u0101pa no aptuveni 33 l\u012bdz 42 centiem par dol\u0101ru, savuk\u0101rt PDVSA oblig\u0101cijas ar termi\u0146u l\u012bdz 2035. gadam pieauga no aptuveni 26 l\u012bdz 33 centiem.Naftas cenas tom\u0113r bija tikai nedaudz sv\u0101rst\u012bgas. Brents un WTI tirgoj\u0101s \u0161aur\u0101 diapazon\u0101, atspogu\u013cojot Venecu\u0113las pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjomu \u2013 aptuveni 1 miljonu barelu dien\u0101, kas veido vien ap 1% no pasaules ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjoma, neskatoties uz to, ka valst\u012b ir vair\u0101k nek\u0101 300 miljardu barelu apstiprin\u0101tu rezervju (liel\u0101k\u0101s pasaul\u0113). Hronisk\u0101 invest\u012bciju defic\u012bta vair\u0101ku gadu garum\u0101 un sabruku\u0161as infrastrukt\u016bras d\u0113\u013c naftas ieguves pieaugums zem ASV kontroles aiz\u0146ems gadus, un jebk\u0101da b\u016btiska ietekme ieguves apjomos joproj\u0101m ir m\u012bkla, par kuru v\u0113rts dom\u0101t tikai ilgtermi\u0146\u0101.<\/p>\n
Potenci\u0101la ienes\u012bgumu kr\u012bze oblig\u0101cij\u0101s<\/p>\n
Neraugoties uz agres\u012bviem procentu likmju samazin\u0101jumiem, ilgtermi\u0146a valsts oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgumi strauji pieaugu\u0161i vis\u0101 pasaul\u0113. Tendence atspogu\u013co liel\u0101kas ba\u017eas par pieaugo\u0161\u0101m probl\u0113m\u0101m fisk\u0101laj\u0101, nevis monet\u0101raj\u0101 politik\u0101. Saska\u0146\u0101 ar ilgtermi\u0146a r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem, att\u012bst\u012bto valstu 30 gad\u012bgo oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgums ir tuvu 4%, kas ir augst\u0101kais r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js kop\u0161 2009. gada, V\u0101cijas un Francijas par\u0101du izmaks\u0101m sasniedzot vair\u0101ku gadu augst\u0101ko l\u012bmeni, kam\u0113r 30 gad\u012bgo ASV Valsts kases oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgums 2025. gada beig\u0101s p\u0101rsniedza 4,8%. V\u0113rts atz\u012bm\u0113t, ka Starptautiskais Val\u016btas fonds (SVF) prognoz\u0113, ka ASV par\u0101ds attiec\u012bb\u0101 pret IKP pieaugs no aptuveni 120% 2023. gad\u0101 l\u012bdz 143% 2030. gad\u0101, potenci\u0101li p\u0101rsniedzot It\u0101lijas un Grie\u0137ijas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jus; savuk\u0101rt glob\u0101lais valsts par\u0101ds 2029. gad\u0101 p\u0101rsniegs 100% no IKP. Ir ar\u012b radusies diezgan sav\u0101da situ\u0101cija \u2013 da\u017eu augstu reitinga uz\u0146\u0113mumu oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgumi tagad ir zem\u0101ki nek\u0101 valsts oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgumi.<\/p>\n
\u201cBloomberg\u201d nor\u0101da, ka \u201cMicrosoft\u201d, \u201cAirbus\u201d un \u201cL\u2019Or\u00e9al\u201d \u0161obr\u012bd emit\u0113 oblig\u0101cijas ar ienes\u012bgumu, kas ir zem\u0101ks par valsts par\u0101da v\u0113rtspap\u012bru ienes\u012bgumiem, turkl\u0101t aptuveni 5% Francijas invest\u012bciju reitinga korporat\u012bvo oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgums \u0161obr\u012bd ir zem\u0101ks nek\u0101 Francijas valsts oblig\u0101cij\u0101m.Ar\u012b Jap\u0101nas oblig\u0101ciju tirgus piedz\u012bvo strauju p\u0101rv\u0113rt\u0113\u0161anu. 30 gad\u012bgo JGB (Jap\u0101nas valsts oblig\u0101ciju) ienes\u012bgums pieaudzis virs 3,5%, kas ir aptuveni l\u012bdzv\u0113rt\u012bgs V\u0101cijas Bundu l\u012bmenim \u2013 decembr\u012b Jap\u0101nas Centr\u0101l\u0101 banka paaugstin\u0101ja savu likmi l\u012bdz 0,75% (30 gadu augst\u0101kais l\u012bmenis) un nor\u0101d\u012bja uz turpm\u0101ku stingr\u0101ku monet\u0101ro politiku, izraisot strauju oblig\u0101ciju p\u0101rdo\u0161anu. K\u0101 jau tika min\u0113ts m\u016bsu iepriek\u0161\u0113j\u0101 apskat\u0101, augst\u0101ks JGB ienes\u012bgums var\u0113tu palielin\u0101t viet\u0113jo Jap\u0101nas akt\u012bvu pievilc\u012bbu, un pat neliela kapit\u0101la p\u0101rdale var\u0113tu ietekm\u0113t glob\u0101l\u0101s akt\u012bvu pl\u016bsmas, radot nopietnas sekas ASV akciju un oblig\u0101ciju tirgiem.<\/p>\n
Vienu reizi desmitgad\u0113<\/p>\n
Janv\u0101ris parasti ir svar\u012bgs m\u0113nesis EUR\/USD p\u0101rim. Tuv\u0101kaj\u0101 n\u0101kotn\u0113 gaid\u0101m kust\u012bbu noteiktos diapazonos ziemas un pavasara laik\u0101 \u2013 galvenie l\u012bme\u0146i, kam j\u0101piev\u0113r\u0161 uzman\u012bba, ir 1,1850 un 1,1400. Ide\u0101l\u0101 gad\u012bjum\u0101 m\u0113s v\u0113l\u0113tos redz\u0113t kritumu tuv\u0101k 1,1400, lai p\u0101rdotu dol\u0101ru, bet neignor\u0113sim skaidru izr\u0101vienu 1,1850 l\u012bmen\u012b, kas var\u0113tu liecin\u0101t par sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101ku aug\u0161upv\u0113rsto kust\u012bbu.Decembris bija neparasti labs m\u0113nesis d\u0101rgmet\u0101liem ar kust\u012bb\u0101m, kas p\u0113d\u0113jo desmitga\u017eu laik\u0101 man\u012bti \u013coti reti.<\/p>\n
Cenas jau sasniegu\u0161as visus m\u016bsu prognoz\u0113tos l\u012bme\u0146us, nopietni tos p\u0101rsniedzot. M\u0113ne\u0161a laik\u0101 zelta cena pieauga par 9,5%, sudraba \u2013 par 48% un plat\u012bna \u2013 par 54%.Nafta joproj\u0101m ir ciets rieksts. Neskatoties uz prognoz\u0113m par volatilit\u0101tes pieaugumu no p\u0101rprodukcijas, spriedzi Venecu\u0113l\u0101 vai citiem potenci\u0101liem \u0123eopolitiskajiem notikumiem, cenas biju\u0161as p\u0101rsteidzo\u0161i stabilas. \u012astermi\u0146a kritums neb\u016btu nek\u0101ds p\u0101rsteigums un var\u0113tu pat b\u016bt lieliska iesp\u0113ja ieg\u0101d\u0101ties naftu, jo m\u016bsu ilgtermi\u0146a prognozes kopum\u0101 paliek pozit\u012bvas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Neskatoties uz vair\u0101kiem volatilit\u0101tes vi\u013c\u0146iem, visas galven\u0101s akt\u012bvu klases \u0161ogad uzr\u0101d\u012bja iespaid\u012bgus rezult\u0101tus, pat ja ASV akcijas zaud\u0113ja…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104267,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[869,77,870,76,867,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,21],"class_list":{"0":"post-104266","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-biznesa-zinas","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-bizness-latvija","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-dienas-zinas","13":"tag-latvia","14":"tag-latvian","15":"tag-latviesu","16":"tag-latviesu-valoda","17":"tag-latviesuvaloda","18":"tag-latvija","19":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","20":"tag-latvijas-zinas","21":"tag-lv","22":"tag-zinas"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115893350154476035","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104266\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}