Infl\u0101cijas izmai\u0146as Latvij\u0101 b\u016bs atkar\u012bgas no situ\u0101cijas Hormuza \u0161aurum\u0101, pauda banku ekonomisti, koment\u0113jot otrdien publiskotos datus par pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenu izmai\u0146\u0101m apr\u012bl\u012b.<\/p>\n
Latvijas Bankas ekonomists O\u013cegs Krasnopjorovs nor\u0101da, ka apr\u012bl\u012b gada infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 nedaudz mazin\u0101j\u0101s – l\u012bdz 2,9%. Degvielas cenas atk\u0101p\u0101s no augst\u0101k\u0101 punkta, un d\u012bze\u013cdegvielas cena atkal samazin\u0101j\u0101s zem diviem eiro par litru. P\u0101rtikas cenu pieaugums, kas p\u0113rn bija b\u016btisk\u0101kais infl\u0101cijas faktors, \u0161ogad apr\u012bl\u012b, sal\u012bdzinot ar attiec\u012bgo m\u0113nesi p\u0113rn, saruka gandr\u012bz l\u012bdz nullei.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 ar\u012b atz\u012bm\u0113, ka n\u0101kamajos m\u0113ne\u0161os gada infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 var pak\u0101peniski pieaugt, energoresursu cenu k\u0101pumam Tuvo Austrumu milit\u0101r\u0101 konflikta d\u0113\u013c atspogu\u013cojoties pla\u0161a spektra pre\u010du un pakalpojumu cen\u0101s.<\/p>\n
Ekonomists skaidro, ka degvielas cenu atk\u0101p\u0161anos no augst\u0101k\u0101 punkta noteica gan nedaudz zem\u0101kas glob\u0101l\u0101s cenas, gan ar\u012b uz laiku no apr\u012b\u013ca l\u012bdz j\u016bnijam noteikts maz\u0101ks akc\u012bzes nodoklis d\u012bze\u013cdegvielai. \u0160\u012b politikas pas\u0101kuma priek\u0161roc\u012bbas ir, ka tas bremz\u0113 degvielas augsto cenu transmisiju uz p\u0101r\u0113jo ekonomiku un ir fisk\u0101li neitr\u0101ls. Ta\u010du \u0161\u0101ds atbalsts ir tuv\u0101ks “helikoptera naudai”, nevis m\u0113r\u0137\u0113tam atbalsta instrumentam tr\u016bc\u012bgajiem, k\u0101 ar\u012b tas nepalielina Latvijas ekonomikas notur\u012bbu pret energoresursu sad\u0101rdzin\u0101jumu n\u0101kotn\u0113.<\/p>\n
“Ja d\u012bze\u013cdegvielas glob\u0101l\u0101s cenas tagad strauji necelsies, ceru, ka pazemin\u0101t\u0101s akc\u012bzes likmes periods d\u012bze\u013cdegvielai netiks pagarin\u0101ts,” pau\u017e Krasnopjorovs, skaidrojot, ka, jo vair\u0101k naudas valsts bud\u017eets neieg\u016bs akc\u012bzes veid\u0101, jo maz\u0101kas var b\u016bt bud\u017eeta iesp\u0113jas kompens\u0113t, piem\u0113ram, komun\u0101lo pakalpojumu sad\u0101rdzin\u0101jumu, kas, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 dabasg\u0101zes glob\u0101lo cenu k\u0101pumu, var\u0113tu b\u016bt aktu\u0101ls n\u0101kamaj\u0101 apkures sezon\u0101.<\/p>\n
Ekonomists uzsver, ka d\u0101rgie komun\u0101lie pakalpojumi Latvij\u0101 nav nolemt\u012bba, jo tos nosaka m\u0101jok\u013cu zem\u0101 energoefektivit\u0101te un \u0101ra gaisa kurin\u0101\u0161ana, lietder\u012bgi izmantojamo siltumu izvadot atmosf\u0113r\u0101, un abus \u0161os faktorus var nov\u0113rst.<\/p>\n
Krasnopjorovs skaidro, ja Hormuza \u0161aurums paliek faktiski blo\u0137\u0113ts, un nafta tiek tirgota virs 100 ASV dol\u0101riem par barelu, \u0161\u0101da notikumu att\u012bst\u012bba ir tuva b\u0101zes scen\u0101rijam, kas paredz, ka \u0161ogad gada vid\u0113j\u0101 naftas cena b\u016bs ap 90 ASV dol\u0101riem par barelu. Tik liels energoresursu cenu k\u0101pums var palielin\u0101t infl\u0101ciju Latvij\u0101 par 1,7 procentpunktiem \u0161ogad un par 0,9 procentpunktiem n\u0101kamgad.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 pau\u017e, ka ba\u017eas par p\u0101rtikas produktu glob\u0101lo cenu b\u016btisku pieaugumu Tuvo Austrumu milit\u0101r\u0101 konflikta d\u0113\u013c l\u012bdz \u0161im nav realiz\u0113ju\u0161\u0101s. P\u0101rtikas glob\u0101l\u0101s cenas ietekm\u0113 virkne faktoru, daudzi no kuriem str\u0101d\u0101 tie\u0161i cenas samazin\u0101\u0161anas virzien\u0101. Piem\u0113ram, graudaugiem ir lieli glob\u0101lie kr\u0101jumi, k\u0101 ar\u012b labas ra\u017eas perspekt\u012bvas Eiropas Savien\u012bbas (ES) valst\u012bs labv\u0113l\u012bgu laika apst\u0101k\u013cu d\u0113\u013c. Piena produktiem un cukuram v\u0113rojams glob\u0101ls p\u0101rpalikums. T\u0101pat tiek prognoz\u0113ta rekordliela kafijas ra\u017ea Braz\u012blij\u0101.<\/p>\n
Ekonomists min, ka milit\u0101rais konflikts Tuvajos Austrumos paliek noz\u012bm\u012bgs faktors, kas sad\u0101rdzina p\u0101rtikas produktu ra\u017eo\u0161anu – d\u0101rg\u0101ka degviela sad\u0101rdzina ra\u017eas s\u0113\u0161anas, nov\u0101k\u0161anas un transporta izmaksas, d\u0101rg\u0101ka dabasg\u0101ze sad\u0101rdzina sl\u0101pek\u013ca m\u0113slo\u0161anas l\u012bdzek\u013cu ra\u017eo\u0161anu un Hormuza \u0161auruma blok\u0101de apgr\u016btina m\u0113slo\u0161anas l\u012bdzek\u013ciem svar\u012bgas amonjaka un sl\u0101pek\u013ca pieg\u0101des.<\/p>\n
Krasnopjorovs nor\u0101da, ka p\u0113d\u0113jos m\u0113ne\u0161os p\u0101rtikas produktu gada infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 ir starp zem\u0101kaj\u0101m eirozon\u0101. “K\u0101ds to var saist\u012bt ar zemo cenu groza izveidi vai Konkurences padomes procesu\u0101l\u0101m darb\u012bb\u0101m. Skepti\u0137i tikm\u0113r teiks, ka p\u0101rtikas produktu glob\u0101lo cenu sarukums ar\u012b iepriek\u0161 Latvij\u0101 atspogu\u013coj\u0101s v\u0113l\u0101k nek\u0101 liel\u0101kaj\u0101 da\u013c\u0101 Eiropas,” pau\u017e ekonomists, skaidrojot, ka, piem\u0113ram, sviests un ol\u012bve\u013c\u013ca Latvij\u0101 tagad ir b\u016btiski – par attiec\u012bgi 22% un 19% – l\u0113t\u0101ki nek\u0101 pirms gada. Vi\u0146\u0161 pau\u017e, ka l\u012bdz\u012bgi tas ir ar\u012b eirozonas valstu liel\u0101kaj\u0101 da\u013c\u0101, turkl\u0101t daudz\u0101s eirozonas valst\u012bs sviesta un ol\u012bve\u013c\u013cas cenu kritums s\u0101k\u0101s da\u017eus m\u0113ne\u0161us agr\u0101k, un l\u012bdz \u0161im br\u012bdim tas bijis iespaid\u012bg\u0101ks nek\u0101 Latvij\u0101.<\/p>\n
“SEB bankas” galvenais ekonomists Dainis Ga\u0161puitis nor\u0101da, ka infl\u0101cijas turpm\u0101k\u0101 gaita b\u016bs atkar\u012bga no situ\u0101cijas att\u012bst\u012bbas Hormuza \u0161aurum\u0101. Latvijas infl\u0101cijas prognoze \u0161im gadam ir 3,9%, kas balst\u0101s uz eso\u0161o ener\u0123ijas cenu un algu k\u0101pumu, k\u0101 ar\u012b to, ka tuv\u0101kaj\u0101s ned\u0113\u013c\u0101s ats\u0101ksies Hormuza \u0161auruma darb\u012bba.<\/p>\n
Ga\u0161puitis uzsver, ka iesp\u0113jami da\u017e\u0101di scen\u0101riji. “Lab\u0101 zi\u0146a ir, ka pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 situ\u0101cija ir at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bga no 2021.-2022. gados nov\u0113rot\u0101s. Pirms \u010detriem gadiem infl\u0101cijas pieaugumu veidoja kombin\u0101cija starp pied\u0101v\u0101juma izrais\u012btu cenu k\u0101pumu un piepras\u012bjuma faktoriem, kas fisk\u0101l\u0101s politikas ietekm\u0113 veidoja pamatu cenu k\u0101pumam jau pirms ener\u0123ijas cenu pieauguma. Eirozon\u0101 infl\u0101cija bija gandr\u012bz 6% jau pirms Krievijas iebrukuma,” nor\u0101da ekonomists, piebilstot, ka p\u0113c ilgsto\u0161a perioda ar \u013coti l\u0113nu cenu pieaugumu daudziem eirozonas uz\u0146\u0113mumiem bija uzkr\u0101jusies nepiecie\u0161am\u012bba paaugstin\u0101t cenas.<\/p>\n
Pa\u0161reiz noska\u0146ojums ir at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bgs, un pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ji var\u0113tu b\u016bt maz\u0101k gatavi pie\u0146emt cenu k\u0101pumu, piebilst Ga\u0161puitis.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 skaidro, ka ener\u0123ijas cenu pieaugums ietekm\u0113 gandr\u012bz visas preces un pakalpojumus, t\u0101p\u0113c risks, ka infl\u0101cija var pastiprin\u0101ties, ir augsts. Ja ener\u0123ijas cenas saglab\u0101sies ap pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo l\u012bmeni un ja pieg\u0101des caur Hormuza \u0161aurumu dr\u012bzum\u0101 ats\u0101ksies, infl\u0101cijas k\u0101pums, visticam\u0101k, b\u016bs \u012bslaic\u012bgs un ar ierobe\u017eotu ietekmi uz p\u0101r\u0113j\u0101m grup\u0101m. Tom\u0113r saikne starp ener\u0123ijas un p\u0101rtikas cen\u0101m ir tie\u0161\u0101ka nek\u0101 starp ener\u0123ijas cen\u0101m un pamatinfl\u0101ciju, un cenu p\u0101rnese notiek \u0101tr\u0101k.<\/p>\n
“\u012astermi\u0146\u0101 p\u0101rtikas cenas ietekm\u0113s pieaugo\u0161\u0101s transporta izmaksas. Ta\u010du liel\u0101ks cenu k\u0101puma risks ir ruden\u012b vai n\u0101kamgad, kad akumul\u0113sies ener\u0123ijas un izejvielu cenu pieaugums,” pau\u017e ekonomists, piebilstot, ka taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 nav saredzami priek\u0161noteikumi tik straujam p\u0101rtikas cenu pieaugumam k\u0101 2022. gad\u0101. Svar\u012bgs faktors b\u016bs ar\u012b laika apst\u0101k\u013cu ietekme uz gaid\u0101mo ra\u017eu.<\/p>\n
Ga\u0161puitis nor\u0101da, ja ener\u0123ijas cenas turpm\u0101k samazin\u0101sies atbilsto\u0161i tirgus gaid\u0101m, risks b\u016btiskai netie\u0161ai ietekmei uz pamatinfl\u0101ciju ir neliels. Ar\u012b gad\u012bjum\u0101, ja ener\u0123ijas cenas ilg\u0101k saglab\u0101sies pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b, efekti, visticam\u0101k, b\u016bs ierobe\u017eoti. No infl\u0101cijas perspekt\u012bvas situ\u0101cijai ir b\u016btiski j\u0101pasliktin\u0101s, tas ir, j\u0101notiek ilgsto\u0161am ener\u0123ijas cenu k\u0101pumam un pla\u0161\u0101kiem trauc\u0113jumiem ieguv\u0113 un tirdzniec\u012bb\u0101, lai rad\u012btu b\u016btisku pamatinfl\u0101cijas pieaugumu.<\/p>\n
“Tom\u0113r ar karu saist\u012bt\u0101 nenoteikt\u012bba ir augsta, un \u0161\u0101du scen\u0101riju piln\u012bb\u0101 izsl\u0113gt nevar. Situ\u0101cija k\u013c\u016bst arvien sare\u017e\u0123\u012bt\u0101ka ar katru dienu. Ja Hormuza \u0161auruma darb\u012bba neats\u0101ksies j\u016bnij\u0101 vai j\u016blij\u0101, kr\u012bzes iesp\u0113jam\u012bba strauji augs,” pau\u017e ekonomists, piebilstot, ja ASV un Ir\u0101na pan\u0101ks vieno\u0161anos, “Brent” cenas, visticam\u0101k, \u0101tri virz\u012bsies 80-90 ASV dol\u0101ru l\u012bmen\u012b, bet sarunu izjuk\u0161ana vai atgrie\u0161an\u0101s pie karadarb\u012bbas var \u0101tri naftas cenas pacelt pie 120 ASV dol\u0101ru atz\u012bmes.<\/p>\n
Bankas “Citadele” galvenais ekonomists K\u0101rlis Purgailis nor\u0101da, ka gada infl\u0101cijas samazin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s signaliz\u0113 par cenu spiediena mazin\u0101\u0161anos kopum\u0101, lai gan 12 m\u0113ne\u0161u vid\u0113jais cenu l\u012bmenis joproj\u0101m saglab\u0101jas sal\u012bdzino\u0161i augsts. Infl\u0101cijas strukt\u016bra k\u013c\u016bst arvien nenoteikt\u0101ka, savuk\u0101rt cenu dinamiku arvien vair\u0101k nosaka atsevi\u0161\u0137as pre\u010du un pakalpojumu grupas, nevis visp\u0101r\u0113js cenu pieaugums.<\/p>\n
Purgailis pau\u017e, ka apr\u012bl\u012b sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar martu cenu izmai\u0146as galvenok\u0101rt ietekm\u0113ja sezon\u0101li faktori. Piem\u0113ram, straujais ap\u0123\u0113rbu un apavu cenu k\u0101pums, kas rada \u012bslaic\u012bgu cenu l\u0113cienu. Savuk\u0101rt p\u0101rtikas cenu kritumu veicin\u0101ju\u0161as mazumtirdzniec\u012bbas akcijas.<\/p>\n
Vienlaikus tika nov\u0113rots cenu k\u0101pums atsevi\u0161\u0137\u0101m p\u0101rtikas prec\u0113m, piem\u0113ram, kafijai un svaigiem d\u0101rze\u0146iem, ko veicin\u0101ja glob\u0101lo izejvielu cenu sv\u0101rst\u012bbas un lo\u0123istikas izmaksas.<\/p>\n
“Papildu uzman\u012bba apr\u012bl\u012b j\u0101piev\u0113r\u0161 degvielas cen\u0101m, kur\u0101m bijusi b\u016btiska ietekme gan m\u0113ne\u0161a, gan gada infl\u0101cijas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jos. Degvielas sad\u0101rdzin\u0101jums apr\u012bl\u012b b\u016btiski veicin\u0101jis cenu k\u0101pumu transporta grup\u0101, tom\u0113r j\u0101uzsver, ka kop\u0161 apr\u012b\u013ca degvielas cenas stabiliz\u0113ju\u0161\u0101s,” pau\u017e Purgailis, piebilstot, ka l\u012bdz ar to, visticam\u0101k, maij\u0101 degvielas infl\u0101cijas spiediens mazin\u0101sies, \u013caujot ar\u012b kop\u0113jai infl\u0101cijai pak\u0101peniski samazin\u0101ties.<\/p>\n
P\u0113c ekonomista min\u0113t\u0101, j\u0101\u0146em v\u0113r\u0101, ka energoresursu cenu \u0161oks ekonomik\u0101 iedarbojas ar nob\u012bdi laik\u0101. Lai ar\u012b tuv\u0101kajos m\u0113ne\u0161os iesp\u0113jama zin\u0101ma atelpa, augst\u0101k\u0101s ener\u0123ijas izmaksas pak\u0101peniski ietekm\u0113s ar\u012b citas pat\u0113ri\u0146a grupas – p\u0101rtiku, da\u017e\u0101das preces, ar m\u0101jokli saist\u012btos izdevumus un pakalpojumu sektoru. T\u0101d\u0113\u013c, visticam\u0101k, p\u0113c vair\u0101kiem relat\u012bvi mier\u012bgiem m\u0113ne\u0161iem ruden\u012b infl\u0101cijas spiediens var\u0113tu atkal pastiprin\u0101ties, atspogu\u013cojot energoresursu cenu \u0161oka sekas.<\/p>\n
Jau zi\u0146ots, ka Latvij\u0101 pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenas \u0161ogad apr\u012bl\u012b sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar martu palielin\u0101j\u0101s par 0,6%, bet gada laik\u0101 – \u0161ogad apr\u012bl\u012b sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar 2025. gada apr\u012bli – pieauga par 2,9%. Vienlaikus 12 m\u0113ne\u0161u vid\u0113jais pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenu l\u012bmenis, sal\u012bdzinot ar iepriek\u0161\u0113jiem 12 m\u0113ne\u0161iem, apr\u012bl\u012b pieauga par 3,5%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Infl\u0101cijas izmai\u0146as Latvij\u0101 b\u016bs atkar\u012bgas no situ\u0101cijas Hormuza \u0161aurum\u0101, pauda banku ekonomisti, koment\u0113jot otrdien publiskotos datus par pat\u0113ri\u0146a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":200685,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[23,869,77,870,28,29,867,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,20,26,27,24,25,21],"class_list":{"0":"post-200684","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-latvija","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-biznesa-zinas","10":"tag-bizness","11":"tag-bizness-latvija","12":"tag-breaking-news","13":"tag-breakingnews","14":"tag-dienas-zinas","15":"tag-featured-news","16":"tag-featurednews","17":"tag-headlines","18":"tag-latest-news","19":"tag-latestnews","20":"tag-latvia","21":"tag-latvian","22":"tag-latviesu","23":"tag-latviesu-valoda","24":"tag-latviesuvaloda","25":"tag-latvija","26":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","27":"tag-latvijas-zinas","28":"tag-lv","29":"tag-news","30":"tag-popularakas-zinas","31":"tag-popularakaszinas","32":"tag-top-stories","33":"tag-topstories","34":"tag-zinas"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/116561919574878826","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=200684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/200685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=200684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=200684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=200684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}