Krievijas karasp\u0113ka p\u0101rdislok\u0101cijas riski NATO pierobe\u017e\u0101 p\u0113c uguns p\u0101rtrauk\u0161anas Ukrain\u0101<\/p>\n
ASV Kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bts (ISW) ir paudis nopietnas ba\u017eas par iesp\u0113jam\u0101m sek\u0101m, ja Ukrain\u0101 tiktu pan\u0101kta uguns p\u0101rtrauk\u0161ana vai ilgsto\u0161a karadarb\u012bbas aptur\u0113\u0161ana. Saska\u0146\u0101 ar ISW anal\u012bzi, \u0161\u0101ds scen\u0101rijs dotu Krievijas Feder\u0101cijai unik\u0101lu iesp\u0113ju \u0101tri p\u0101rdisloc\u0113t savus karasp\u0113kus uz robe\u017eu ar NATO dal\u012bbvalst\u012bm. Tas rad\u012btu jaunas, potenci\u0101li v\u0113l nopietn\u0101kas dro\u0161\u012bbas probl\u0113mas Eiropas Savien\u012bbai un Zieme\u013catlantijas aliansei, jo Krievija var\u0113tu nostiprin\u0101t savu milit\u0101ro kl\u0101tb\u016btni tie\u0161i pie alianses austrumu flanga.<\/p>\n
\u0160\u012b strat\u0113\u0123isk\u0101 kust\u012bba neb\u016bt nav negaid\u012bta, jo Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 vad\u012bba jau ilg\u0101ku laiku demonstr\u0113 nodomu sagatavoties potenci\u0101lam konfliktam ar NATO. Anal\u012bti\u0137i nor\u0101da, ka Krievija jau ir s\u0101kusi akt\u012bvi veidot informat\u012bvu un psiholo\u0123isku priek\u0161noteikumu savai kampa\u0146ai, kas v\u0113rsta uz iesp\u0113jamo karu ar NATO. \u0160is process, ko ISW d\u0113v\u0113 par “Nulles f\u0101zi”, ietver da\u017e\u0101das atkl\u0101tas un sl\u0113ptas darb\u012bbas. P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 ir v\u0113rojams iev\u0113rojams Krievijas uzbrukumu pieaugums NATO dal\u012bbvalst\u012bm, tostarp drona uzlidojumi NATO gaisa telp\u0101. \u0160\u012b uzbrukumu intensifik\u0101cija kop\u0161 2025. gada rudens liecina par koordin\u0113tu darb\u012bbu modeli, kas nor\u0101da uz Krievijas gatavo\u0161anos virz\u012bties uz augst\u0101ku kara l\u012bmeni nek\u0101 pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 situ\u0101cija Ukrain\u0101.<\/p>\n
Krievijas strat\u0113\u0123isk\u0101s kust\u012bbas un NATO reakcija<\/p>\n
ASV Kara p\u0113t\u012bjumu instit\u016bts ir analiz\u0113jis Krievijas \u0101rlietu ministra Sergeja Lavrova izteikumus, kas v\u0113lreiz apstiprina Krem\u013ca pla\u0161\u0101kos m\u0113r\u0137us \u2013 pan\u0101kt piln\u012bgu politisko kontroli p\u0101r Ukrainu pirms kara ofici\u0101las izbeig\u0161anas. \u0160\u0101di apgalvojumi saskan ar Vladimira Putina visp\u0101r\u0113jo uzvaras teoriju, kas paredz, ka Krievijai ir pietiekami resursi un kaujas sp\u0113jas, lai turpin\u0101tu pak\u0101penisku virz\u012bbu uz priek\u0161u un uzvar\u0113tu izs\u012bkuma kar\u0101 pret Ukrainu. \u0160\u012b teorija balst\u0101s uz pie\u0146\u0113mumu, ka Krievija sp\u0113s p\u0101rciest Rietumu atbalstu Ukrainai un Ukrainas sp\u0113ju pretoties agresijai.<\/p>\n
Neraugoties uz past\u0101v\u012bgo karadarb\u012bbu Ukrain\u0101, Krievija nepar\u0101da nek\u0101das paz\u012bmes, ka t\u0101 gatavotos p\u0113ckara situ\u0101cijai. Glu\u017ei pret\u0113ji, Krievija p\u0101rvieto savus karav\u012brus un sp\u0113kus jaunu uzbrukuma oper\u0101ciju veik\u0161anai. \u0160ie nov\u0113rojumi piln\u012bb\u0101 atbilst Krievijas prezidenta Vladimira Putina un Krievijas \u0122ener\u0101l\u0161t\u0101ba priek\u0161nieka Val\u0113rija Gerasimova nesenajiem izteikumiem, kas ir da\u013ca no pla\u0161\u0101kiem Krem\u013ca centieniem piespiest Ukrainu un Rietumus nekav\u0113joties piekrist Krievijas maksim\u0101listiskaj\u0101m pras\u012bb\u0101m, radot iespaidu, ka Krievijas uzvara ir neizb\u0113gama un t\u0101s agresija n\u0101kotn\u0113 tikai pastiprin\u0101sies.<\/p>\n
Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 vad\u012bba ar\u012b signaliz\u0113, ka t\u0101 ir iecer\u0113jusi uzvar\u0113t “izs\u012bkuma kar\u0101” pret Ukrainu. \u0160\u012b strat\u0113\u0123ija balst\u0101s uz p\u0101rliec\u012bbu, ka Krievija var\u0113s izmantot savu cilv\u0113kresursu un materi\u0101lo resursu p\u0101r\u0101kumu, lai sagrautu Ukrainas sp\u0113kus. \u0160\u0101di izteikumi, ko pau\u017e Putins un Gerasimovs, ir da\u013ca no pla\u0161\u0101kiem Krem\u013ca centieniem piespiest Ukrainu un Rietumus piekrist vi\u0146a pras\u012bb\u0101m, baidoties no neizb\u0113gamas Krievijas uzvaras un turpm\u0101kas agresijas pastiprin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s.<\/p>\n
Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 aktivit\u0101te un potenci\u0101lais NATO apdraud\u0113jums<\/p>\n
Saska\u0146\u0101 ar ISW nov\u0113rojumiem, Krievijas karasp\u0113ks ir veicis atsevi\u0161\u0137as uz\u0146\u0113m\u012bbas darb\u012bbas gar Ukrainas frontes l\u012bnij\u0101m, ta\u010du \u0161\u012bs kust\u012bbas ir \u013coti l\u0113nas un pak\u0101peniskas. Piem\u0113ram, zi\u0146ots par elementu p\u0101rvieto\u0161anu no Krievijas pierobe\u017eas rajoniem uz Sumu apgabala zieme\u013ciem, kas liecina par iesp\u0113jamu pulka sadal\u012b\u0161anu starp diviem virzieniem. Tom\u0113r, lai gan \u0161\u012bs ir atsevi\u0161\u0137as kust\u012bbas, t\u0101s kopum\u0101 neliecina par strauju uzbrukuma gatav\u012bbu vai pla\u0161u frontes p\u0101rr\u0101vumu.<\/p>\n
Tas ir pretstat\u0101 potenci\u0101lajai Krievijas sp\u0113ku masveida p\u0101rdislok\u0101cijai uz NATO robe\u017eu, ko var\u0113tu izrais\u012bt uguns p\u0101rtrauk\u0161ana Ukrain\u0101. \u0160\u0101da situacija rad\u012btu jaunu, nopietnu izaicin\u0101jumu NATO dro\u0161\u012bbai. Virz\u012bba uz austrumu flangu ir da\u013ca no pla\u0161\u0101kas Krievijas strat\u0113\u0123ijas, kas v\u0113rsta uz NATO destabiliz\u0101ciju un Eiropas demokr\u0101tiju grau\u0161anu. Augst\u0101k\u0101s dro\u0161\u012bbas iest\u0101des, piem\u0113ram, V\u0101cijas Feder\u0101lais izl\u016bkdienests, jau ir br\u012bdin\u0101ju\u0161as, ka Eiropai j\u0101gatavojas t\u0101l\u0101kai eskal\u0101cijai no Krievijas puses un ka Krievija var\u0113tu uzbrukt NATO agr\u0101k nek\u0101 paredz\u0113ts (nevis 2029. gad\u0101). Tiek uzsv\u0113rts, ka Krievija cen\u0161as izzin\u0101t Eiropas robe\u017eas, destabiliz\u0113t demokr\u0101tijas, \u0161\u0137elt sabiedr\u012bbas un iebied\u0113t pilso\u0146us.<\/p>\n
Krievijas p\u0113d\u0113jo m\u0113ne\u0161u laik\u0101 ir pastiprin\u0101jusi savas inform\u0101cijas un psiholo\u0123isk\u0101s oper\u0101cijas, kas v\u0113rstas pret NATO dal\u012bbvalst\u012bm. \u0160\u012bs darb\u012bbas ietver sabot\u0101\u017eu misijas, elektronisk\u0101s karadarb\u012bbas trauc\u0113jumus, GPS trauc\u0113jumus un pat dedzin\u0101\u0161anu. Tas viss nor\u0101da uz Krievijas gatavo\u0161anos jaunam kara l\u012bmenim, iesp\u0113jams, tie\u0161i pret NATO. \u0160\u012b “Nulles f\u0101ze” ir pirmais solis, gatavojoties potenci\u0101lam karam ar NATO.<\/p>\n
Krievijas demogr\u0101fisk\u0101s un ilgtermi\u0146a strat\u0113\u0123ijas<\/p>\n
Papildus milit\u0101raj\u0101m darb\u012bb\u0101m, ISW nor\u0101da ar\u012b uz Krievijas centieniem main\u012bt demogr\u0101fisko situ\u0101ciju okup\u0113taj\u0101s Ukrainas teritorij\u0101s. \u0160\u012bs darb\u012bbas tiek veiktas, lai pamatotu Krievijas pretenzijas uz \u0161\u012bm zem\u0113m. \u0160is ir viens no ilgtermi\u0146a strat\u0113\u0123ijas elementiem, kas liecina par Krievijas v\u0113lmi ne tikai ieg\u016bt kontroli p\u0101r Ukrainu, bet ar\u012b nodro\u0161in\u0101t savu poz\u012bciju re\u0123ion\u0101 ilgtermi\u0146\u0101.<\/p>\n
Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 kl\u0101tb\u016btne pie NATO robe\u017e\u0101m, \u012bpa\u0161i pie Somijas un Igaunijas, tiek pastiprin\u0101ta. Ir nov\u0113rota jaunu tel\u0161u, lidma\u0161\u012bnu ang\u0101ru un noliktavu celtniec\u012bba, kas signaliz\u0113 par ilgtermi\u0146a strat\u0113\u0123iju atbildes reakcij\u0101 uz Somijas pievieno\u0161anos NATO. \u0160\u012bs darb\u012bbas ir da\u013ca no Krievijas pl\u0101niem sagatavoties sp\u0113ku p\u0101rdislok\u0101cijai p\u0113c kara Ukrain\u0101 beig\u0101m. Somijas un Igaunijas amatpersonas pau\u017e ba\u017eas, ka tuv\u0101ko gadu laik\u0101 Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 kl\u0101tb\u016btne pie to robe\u017e\u0101m var\u0113tu sasniegt draud\u012bgus apm\u0113rus, palielinoties karav\u012bru skaitam t\u016bksto\u0161os.<\/p>\n
Anal\u012bti\u0137i uzskata, ka Krievija uztver Arktikas re\u0123ionu k\u0101 vienu no galvenajiem elementiem savas lielvalsts identit\u0101t\u0113, un piek\u013cuve tai ir b\u016btiska t\u0101s statusam. \u0160\u012b pieeja skaidro Krievijas past\u0101v\u012bgo interesi par milit\u0101ro kl\u0101tb\u016btni \u0161aj\u0101 re\u0123ion\u0101, kas robe\u017eojas ar NATO dal\u012bbvalst\u012bm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Krievijas karasp\u0113ka p\u0101rdislok\u0101cijas riski NATO pierobe\u017e\u0101 p\u0113c uguns p\u0101rtrauk\u0161anas Ukrain\u0101 ASV Kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bts (ISW) ir paudis nopietnas…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23834,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,7361,32,33,22,7359,4140,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,7360,20,26,27,24,25,3113,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-23833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-drosibas-riski","13":"tag-featured-news","14":"tag-featurednews","15":"tag-headlines","16":"tag-isw","17":"tag-krievijas-armija","18":"tag-latest-news","19":"tag-latestnews","20":"tag-latvia","21":"tag-latvian","22":"tag-latviesu","23":"tag-latviesu-valoda","24":"tag-latviesuvaloda","25":"tag-latvija","26":"tag-lv","27":"tag-nato-robeza","28":"tag-news","29":"tag-popularakas-zinas","30":"tag-popularakaszinas","31":"tag-top-stories","32":"tag-topstories","33":"tag-ukrainas-kars","34":"tag-world","35":"tag-world-news","36":"tag-worldnews","37":"tag-zinas","38":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}