{"id":288707,"date":"2026-09-08T13:56:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:56:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/288707\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:56:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:56:26","slug":"energijas-cenas-atjauno-cenu-pieaugumu-un-veido-jaunus-riskus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/288707\/","title":{"rendered":"Ener\u0123ijas cenas atjauno cenu pieaugumu un veido jaunus riskus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dainis Ga\u0161puitis, SEB bankas ekonomists<\/p>\n

\"Ener\u0123ijas<\/a><\/p>\n

August\u0101, sal\u012bdzinot ar j\u016bliju, pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenu l\u012bmenis palielin\u0101j\u0101s par 0,3%. B\u016btisk\u0101k\u0101 ietekme uz cenu l\u012bme\u0146a izmai\u0146\u0101m m\u0113ne\u0161a laik\u0101 bija ener\u0123ijas cenu k\u0101pumam, kas ietekm\u0113ja transporta un m\u0101jok\u013ca izmaksas, personiskajai apr\u016bpei, soci\u0101lajai aizsardz\u012bbai, da\u017e\u0101d\u0101m prec\u0113m un pakalpojumiem, atp\u016btai un kult\u016brai, k\u0101 ar\u012b cenu kritumam p\u0101rtikai un ap\u0123\u0113rbam un apaviem. Gada infl\u0101cija pieauga l\u012bdz 3,2%.<\/p>\n

P\u0113c infl\u0101cijas atk\u0101p\u0161an\u0101s vasaras laik\u0101, cenu pieauguma riski atgrie\u017eas. Galvenais faktors \u0161obr\u012bd ir augo\u0161\u0101s ener\u0123ijas cenas. P\u0101rtikas cenu dinamika v\u0113l neizskat\u0101s satrauco\u0161a, ta\u010du riski n\u0101kamajiem m\u0113ne\u0161iem, \u012bpa\u0161i n\u0101kamajam gadam ir saskat\u0101mi. Savuk\u0101rt, lai ar\u012b algu pieaugums \u0161ogad ir pal\u0113nin\u0101jies, tas joproj\u0101m uztur\u0113s cenu pieaugumu pakalpojumos.<\/p>\n

Situ\u0101cija ener\u0123ijas tirg\u016b k\u013c\u016bst arvien sasp\u012bl\u0113t\u0101ka. ASV triecieni Ir\u0101nas naftas tankku\u0123iem un uzbrukums Saudi Aramco infrastrukt\u016brai ir palielin\u0101ju\u0161i ba\u017eas par pieg\u0101d\u0113m. Tirgot\u0101ji arvien vair\u0101k uzskata, ka konflikts ieilgs. Pasaules naftas kr\u0101jumi turpina sarukt, kas turpm\u0101k samazina sp\u0113ju balans\u0113t naftas cenu. Tikm\u0113r spriedze attiec\u012bb\u0101 uz naftas produktiem ir pat liel\u0101ka. Piem\u0113ram d\u012bze\u013cdegvielas p\u0101rstr\u0101des cenas jau ir sasniegu\u0161as rekordus un situ\u0101cija ar t\u0101s pieg\u0101\u017eu nodro\u0161in\u0101\u0161anu k\u013c\u016bst apgr\u016btino\u0161\u0101ka. T\u0101 k\u0101 tuvojoties ziemai piepras\u012bjums p\u0113c destil\u0101tiem augs un sare\u017e\u0123\u012bjumi ar pieg\u0101di var pastiprin\u0101ties, riski t\u0101l\u0101kam naftas un naftas produktu cenu k\u0101pumam ir \u013coti augsti.<\/p>\n

Raksts turpin\u0101s p\u0113c rekl\u0101mas<\/p>\n

Spriedze veidojas ar\u012b attiec\u012bb\u0101 uz g\u0101zes tirgu. TTF cena \u0161obr\u012bd ir ap 75 eiro MWh, kas ir augst\u0101kais l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 2023. gada s\u0101kuma. Eiropas dabasg\u0101zes kr\u0101tuves ir aizpild\u012btas tikai par aptuveni 67%, kas ir b\u016btiski zem v\u0113sturisk\u0101 l\u012bme\u0146a \u0161aj\u0101 gada laik\u0101. Galvenais cenu k\u0101puma iemesls ir \u0123eopolitisk\u0101 spriedze Tuvajos Austrumos un ar to saist\u012btie SDG pieg\u0101\u017eu trauc\u0113jumi caur Hormuza \u0161aurumu. Tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka pirms ziemas Eiropai v\u0113l j\u0101iep\u0113rk iev\u0113rojams g\u0101zes apjoms, vienlaikus konkur\u0113jot ar \u0100zijas pirc\u0113jiem par pieejamaj\u0101m SDG krav\u0101m. L\u012bdz \u0161im tirgus cer\u0113ja uz Kataras SDG eksporta atjauno\u0161anos caur Persijas l\u012b\u010da re\u0123ionu. Diem\u017e\u0113l nav paz\u012bmju, ka p\u0101rvad\u0101jumi dr\u012bzum\u0101 atgriez\u012bsies ierastaj\u0101 re\u017e\u012bm\u0101. Tas rada b\u016btisku risku Eiropas g\u0101zes apg\u0101dei ziem\u0101. Ja Kataras un citu Tuvo Austrumu SDG kravu pl\u016bsmas dr\u012bz neatjaunosies, past\u0101v risks, ka \u0161\u012bs kravas vairs nepasp\u0113s non\u0101kt Eirop\u0101 pirms ziemas beig\u0101m. L\u012bdz ar to Eiropai n\u0101ksies pa\u013cauties uz jau pieejamajiem kr\u0101jumiem, Norv\u0113\u0123ijas cauru\u013cvadu pieg\u0101d\u0113m un SDG krav\u0101m no ASV un citiem pieg\u0101d\u0101t\u0101jiem. \u0160\u012b situ\u0101cija atspogu\u013cojas TTF dabasg\u0101zes ziemas kontraktu cen\u0101s. J\u0101uzsver, ka cenu k\u0101pums galvenok\u0101rt atspogu\u013co ziemas pieg\u0101\u017eu risku, nevis ilgtermi\u0146a struktur\u0101lu g\u0101zes defic\u012btu. P\u0113c 2027. gada marta dabasg\u0101ze tirgojas iev\u0113rojami zem\u0101k, kas liecina, ka tirgus sagaida situ\u0101cijas normaliz\u0113\u0161anos p\u0113c ziemas. Lai ar\u012b cenas b\u016bs augst\u0101kas, nav ar\u012b pamata run\u0101t par fizisku g\u0101zes defic\u012btu Eirop\u0101. Pieg\u0101\u017eu strukt\u016bra ir daudz diversific\u0113t\u0101ka nek\u0101 2021.\u20132022. gad\u0101 un Eiropai ir pieejami vair\u0101ki alternat\u012bvi pieg\u0101des avoti. Tom\u0113r augst\u0101kas g\u0101zes cenas var saglab\u0101t negat\u012bvu ietekmi uz elektroener\u0123ijas cen\u0101m. Noz\u012bm\u012bgs faktors m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bb\u0101m b\u016bs tas, cik agri s\u0101ksies ziema, cik ilgsto\u0161a un auksta t\u0101 izv\u0113rt\u012bsies.<\/p>\n

Pamaz\u0101m veidojas izmaksu spiediens uz p\u0101rtikas cen\u0101m. FAO P\u0101rtikas cenu indekss august\u0101 pieauga par 1,9% m\u0113ne\u0161a laik\u0101 l\u012bdz 133,3 punktiem, kas ir augst\u0101kais l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 2022. gada novembra. Cenas pieauga vis\u0101s galvenaj\u0101s p\u0101rtikas grup\u0101s, \u012bpa\u0161i cukuram un graudaugiem. Karstums un sausums, \u0123eopolitiskie konflikti, pieg\u0101\u017eu trauc\u0113jumi, ener\u0123ijas un izejvielu cenu k\u0101pums veido risku, ka p\u0101rtikas cenu k\u0101pums p\u0101rskat\u0101m\u0101 n\u0101kotn\u0113 pak\u0101peniski non\u0101ks ar\u012b l\u012bdz pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101jiem. T\u0101d\u0113\u013c p\u0101rtikas infl\u0101cijas risks vair\u0101k v\u0113rsts uz n\u0101kamo gadu. Ja ener\u0123ijas cenas p\u0113c ziemas normaliz\u0113sies, spiedienam uz p\u0101rtikas cen\u0101m vajadz\u0113tu mazin\u0101ties. Ta\u010du, ja augst\u0101s g\u0101zes un naftas cenas saglab\u0101sies ilg\u0101k, p\u0101rtika var no jauna k\u013c\u016bt par vienu no galvenajiem infl\u0101cijas virz\u012bt\u0101jiem. Neskatoties uz infl\u0101cijas atg\u016b\u0161anos, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 vasaras tendences, \u0161ogad infl\u0101cija b\u016bs zem\u0101ka par gada s\u0101kum\u0101 izteiktaj\u0101m prognoz\u0113m un p\u0113rn uzr\u0101d\u012bto, un b\u016bs 3,3%. N\u0101kamgad t\u0101 joproj\u0101m b\u016bs paaugstin\u0101ta, virs 3%.<\/p>\n

Interes\u0113 \u0161\u012b t\u0113ma? S\u0101c sekot \u0161iem atsl\u0113gas v\u0101rdiem un sa\u0146em pazi\u0146ojumus, kad ir pieejams jauns saturs!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dainis Ga\u0161puitis, SEB bankas ekonomists August\u0101, sal\u012bdzinot ar j\u016bliju, pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenu l\u012bmenis palielin\u0101j\u0101s par 0,3%. B\u016btisk\u0101k\u0101 ietekme uz…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":288708,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5],"tags":[23,28,29,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,21],"class_list":["post-288707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-aktualitates","tag-aktualitates","tag-breaking-news","tag-breakingnews","tag-featured-news","tag-featurednews","tag-headlines","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-latvia","tag-latvian","tag-latviesu","tag-latviesu-valoda","tag-latviesuvaloda","tag-latvija","tag-lv","tag-news","tag-popularakas-zinas","tag-popularakaszinas","tag-top-stories","tag-topstories","tag-zinas"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/117235770450660401","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/288708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}