Kam\u0113r ASV piedz\u012bvo sava lielvaras statusa norietu, att\u0101linoties no sabiedrotajiem Eirop\u0101 un\u00a0citos pasaules re\u0123ionos, Krievijas provok\u0101cijas Eirop\u0101 k\u013c\u016bst\u00a0bie\u017e\u0101kas. Tom\u0113r paties\u012bb\u0101 Krievijas\u00a0“bikst\u012b\u0161anas” politika iemieso arvien pieaugo\u0161\u0101s\u00a0diktatora Vladimira Putina bailes\u00a0un paniku. Past\u0101v zin\u0101mas paral\u0113les starp Padomju Savien\u012bbas ekonomikas sabrukumu un Ukrainas\u00a0veikto\u00a0gaisa triecienu\u00a0Krievijas naftas p\u0101rstr\u0101des r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m ietekmi uz Krievijas \u0161\u012b br\u012b\u017ea ekonomisko situ\u0101ciju, Latvijas Radio raid\u012bjum\u0101 “Br\u012bv\u012bbas bulv\u0101ris” pauda laikraksta “Financial Times” galvenais ASV koment\u0113t\u0101js Edvards L\u016bss.<\/p>\n
Edvards L\u016bss ir britu \u017eurn\u0101lists un laikraksta “Financial Times” galvenais ASV koment\u0113t\u0101js. 2025. gad\u0101 vi\u0146\u0161 izdeva gr\u0101matu par ASV Aukst\u0101 kara strat\u0113\u0123i Zbig\u0146evu B\u017eezinski. L\u016bsam bie\u017ei prasa, k\u0101 B\u017eezinskis dom\u0101tu par vienu vai otru starptautisk\u0101s politikas aspektu \u0161odien. B\u017eezinskis skaidri apzin\u0101j\u0101s, ka v\u0113sture nekad nebeidzas un vara neieredz vakuumu.<\/p>\n
Gints Gr\u016bbe: J\u016bs ies\u0101k\u0101t savu pane\u013cdiskusiju R\u012bgas konferenc\u0113 (9. oktobr\u012b) ar jaut\u0101jumu par to, ko p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 dar\u012bjusi Krievija un k\u0101 m\u0113s to var\u0113tu aptur\u0113t. Teic\u0101t, ka m\u0113s stipr\u0101k nek\u0101 parasti pieredzam hibr\u012bdkaru. Bie\u017ei dzirdam “tas nav \u012bsti kar\u0161, bet nav ar\u012b miers”. Var\u0113tu dom\u0101t, ka probl\u0113ma ir terminolo\u0123ij\u0101. K\u0101 jums \u0161\u0137iet? K\u0101p\u0113c mums ir tik gr\u016bti defin\u0113t notieko\u0161o?<\/p>\n
Edvards L\u016bss: J\u0101, dom\u0101ju, ka visi \u0161ie termini\u00a0\u2013 pel\u0113k\u0101 zona, hibr\u012bdkar\u0161, nekonvencion\u0101lais kar\u0161, “nedz miers, nedz kar\u0161”\u00a0\u2013 visiem \u0161iem j\u0113dzieniem izaicin\u0101jumu met krievu daudzveid\u012bg\u0101 darbo\u0161an\u0101s. Ir t\u0101das darb\u012bbas, ko iesp\u0113jams ticami noliegt, piem\u0113ram, dezinform\u0101cij\u0101. M\u0113s jau pa\u0161i ra\u017eojam tik daudz dezinform\u0101cijas, ka krievu artavu \u0161aj\u0101 dezinform\u0101cijas lauk\u0101 ir diezgan gr\u016bti prec\u012bzi no\u0161\u0137irt un pateikt: “\u0160is p\u0101rst\u0101v naid\u012bgos sp\u0113kus.” Jo m\u0113s pa\u0161i ra\u017eojam tik daudz m\u0113slu, ja atvainosiet \u0161\u0101du izteicienu. [..] Un tad, protams, past\u0101v ar\u012b \u012bsta kara defin\u012bcija.<\/p>\n
Tas ir tas, ko pieredz ukrai\u0146i. M\u0113s nepieredzam to, ko pieredz ukrai\u0146i. Un t\u0101 b\u016btu visai ekstravaganti teikt, ka m\u0113s karojam pret Krieviju. Un t\u0101pat ar\u012b neb\u016btu pareizi teikt, ka m\u0113s esam lielvaru kar\u0101 pret Krieviju. [..] M\u0113s atbalst\u0101m valsti, kura c\u012bn\u0101s par savu neatkar\u012bbu, un Krievija izmanto nekonvencion\u0101lus, da\u017ek\u0101rt ticami noliedzamus l\u012bdzek\u013cus, lai m\u016bs sa\u0161\u016bpotu, dara visu iesp\u0113jamo, lai \u0161\u0137eltu, rad\u012btu apjukumu un nesaska\u0146as rietumvalstu starp\u0101 un to iek\u0161ien\u0113. Man nav viena konkr\u0113ta termina ang\u013cu valod\u0101, ar kuru aprakst\u012bt Putina darb\u012bbu. Es v\u0113l\u0113tos, kaut var\u0113tu pateikt ko prec\u012bz\u0101ku par “pel\u0113ko zonu”, hibr\u012bdkaru un visu p\u0101r\u0113jo, ta\u010du tas nu ir m\u016bsu pa\u0161reiz\u0113jais v\u0101rdu kr\u0101jums.<\/p>\n
T\u0101pat m\u0113s nevaram teikt, ka \u0161is ir “jaunais aukstais kar\u0161”.<\/p>\n
Es teiku, ka mums rit Aukstais kar\u0161 2.0 pret \u0136\u012bnu. Dom\u0101ju, ka tas ir visai prec\u012bzi. Protams, \u0136\u012bna izmanto da\u017eas hibr\u012bdmetodes. T\u0101pat k\u0101 m\u0113s. \u0160is ir divvirzienu ce\u013c\u0161.<\/p>\n
Un Krievija, krievi, ir \u0161\u012b glob\u0101l\u0101 Aukst\u0101 kara priek\u0161pl\u0101n\u0101. Pa da\u013cai tas ir karsts, \u013coti, \u013coti karsts. Es nezinu, nedom\u0101ju, ka ir briesm\u012bgi noder\u012bgi debat\u0113t par semantiku\u00a0\u2013 k\u0101 varam aprakst\u012bt savas attiec\u012bbas ar Krieviju. T\u0101s noteikti ir naid\u012bgas un var v\u0113l krietni pasliktin\u0101ties. Un Ukraina ir uz frontes l\u012bnijas.<\/p>\n
K\u0101p\u0113c Tramps p\u0113k\u0161\u0146i ir aptv\u0113ris Ukrainas svar\u012bgumu? Vai tas noticis p\u0113c A\u013caskas, vai\u2026? K\u0101p\u0113c tas noticis tik v\u0113lu?<\/p>\n
J\u016bs pie\u0146emat, ka vi\u0146\u0161 turpin\u0101s apzin\u0101ties Ukrainas svar\u012bgumu. P\u0113d\u0113jo desmit\u00a0m\u0113ne\u0161u laik\u0101 vi\u0146\u0161 vair\u0101kk\u0101rt uz \u012bsu br\u012bdi ir main\u012bjis savas domas par labu Ukrainai.<\/p>\n
Parasti, t\u0101 bijusi reakcija uz to, ka Putins patiesi pazemojis Trampu. Publiski pazemojis, pastiprinot dronu, ra\u0137e\u0161u un citus uzbrukumus. Tai skait\u0101 pret Ukrainas civiliedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem. Tas noticis 72, 96\u00a0stundu laik\u0101 p\u0113c tam, kad Tramps ir aicin\u0101jis uz uguns p\u0101rtrauk\u0161anu no Krievijas puses. Psiholo\u0123ija ir svar\u012bgs faktors visiem l\u012bderiem, un it \u012bpa\u0161i Trampam. Vi\u0146am nepat\u012bk, ka vi\u0146u pazemo. Lai ar\u012b vi\u0146\u0161 apbr\u012bno\u00a0\u2013 atkl\u0101ti apbr\u012bno un apskau\u017e Putinu\u00a0\u2013, Putins vi\u0146u pazemo. Un es dom\u0101ju, ka te tie\u0161\u0101m vienk\u0101r\u0161\u0101kais skaidrojums ir vistr\u0101p\u012bg\u0101kais. Ta\u010du, vai \u0161\u012b p\u0101rsl\u0113g\u0161an\u0101s uz Ukrainas pusi, paraudz\u012b\u0161an\u0101s uz situ\u0101ciju vair\u0101k no Ukrainas perspekt\u012bvas b\u016bs ilgsto\u0161a, tas ir pavisam cits jaut\u0101jums. Esmu skeptisks.<\/p>\n
J\u016bs, protams, esat p\u0113t\u012bjis Kisind\u017eera strat\u0113\u0123iju attiec\u012bb\u0101 uz Padomju Savien\u012bbu vai Krieviju un ar\u012b B\u017eezinski. Vai varam sal\u012bdzin\u0101t t\u0101 laika ASV strat\u0113\u0123iju pret Padomju Savien\u012bbu ar Trampa strat\u0113\u0123iju (pret Krieviju)? Vai past\u0101v k\u0101da l\u012bdz\u012bba?<\/p>\n
Past\u0101v virspus\u0113ja l\u012bdz\u012bba starp Kisind\u017eera pasaules skat\u012bjumu.<\/p>\n
Jo tie ar\u012b bija at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bgi: Kisind\u017eers, Padomju Savien\u012bba un B\u017eezinskis.<\/p>\n
J\u0101, tie bija \u013coti at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bgi. Tom\u0113r past\u0101v virspus\u0113ja l\u012bdz\u012bba starp Kisind\u017eera re\u0101listisko pieeju Aukstajam karam, kas b\u016bt\u012bb\u0101 pie\u0146\u0113ma, ka Padomju Savien\u012bbas iek\u0161\u0113j\u0101s norises ir Padomju Savien\u012bbas dar\u012b\u0161ana un ka Maskavai past\u0101v t\u0101s le\u0123it\u012bm\u0101 intere\u0161u sf\u0113ra. Tas, ko Tramps dom\u0101 par Krieviju, t\u0101pat ar\u012b \u0136\u012bnu, vi\u0146\u0161 pie\u0146em to, ka \u0161\u012bm valst\u012bm ir katrai savs lauci\u0146\u0161, katrai sava intere\u0161u sf\u0113ra. Tie\u0161i t\u0101pat k\u0101 vi\u0146\u0161 pasludina Amerikas rietumu intere\u0161u sf\u0113ru, proti, “\u0161is ir m\u016bsu lauci\u0146\u0161”.<\/p>\n
Tom\u0113r Kisind\u017eers ir krietni lokan\u0101ks, izgl\u012btot\u0101ks un daudzpus\u012bg\u0101ks, nek\u0101 Tramps. Turkl\u0101t Kisind\u017eera [..] defin\u012bcija mieram, vi\u0146\u0161 to aiz\u0146\u0113mies no v\u0101cu filozofa Imanuela Kanta, ir sekojo\u0161a: miers vienk\u0101r\u0161i ir kara neesam\u012bba.<\/p>\n
Un, dom\u0101ju, ka \u0161\u012b pieeja mums, kas cen\u0161as defin\u0113t pa\u0161reiz notieko\u0161o, ir \u013coti noder\u012bga. T\u0101p\u0113c, ka t\u0101 nav specifiska un t\u0101 ir re\u0101listiska. “Miers ir kara neesam\u012bba”. Tas, protams, nor\u0101da uz karu k\u0101 pa pusei dabisku cilv\u0113ka st\u0101vokli.<\/p>\n
Es atradu, ka j\u016bs skaidrojat pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo situ\u0101ciju k\u0101 \u0123eopolitikas atrieb\u012bbu. Vai j\u016bs var\u0113tu paskaidrot, kas ir \u0161ie atrieb\u012bbas aspekti?<\/p>\n
T\u0101tad [..] m\u0113s, it \u012bpa\u0161i, angliski run\u0101jo\u0161ajos Rietumos, iekrit\u0101m uz neapdom\u012bgo ideju, ka, Aukstajam karam beidzoties, v\u0113sture kaut k\u0101d\u0101 veid\u0101 tika atcelta. Un, ka m\u016bsu starp\u0101 nav nek\u0101du lielu ideolo\u0123isku nesaska\u0146u, t\u0101d\u0113j\u0101di nav j\u0101r\u0113\u0137in\u0101s ne ar k\u0101diem lieliem konfliktiem. Ka \u0123eopolitikas \u0113ra ir beigusies. Un 90. gados mums bija aptuveni desmit gadu, ko Amerik\u0101 tagad d\u0113v\u0113 par “atp\u016btu no v\u0113stures”, kur\u0101 past\u0101v\u0113ja t\u0101ds ieskats.<\/p>\n
Tad n\u0101ca 11.\u00a0septembris, un t\u0101 bija \u0123eopolitikas atgrie\u0161an\u0101s, v\u0113stures atgrie\u0161an\u0101s. Atgrie\u0161an\u0101s pie t\u0101 dom\u0101\u0161anas veida. Nedom\u0101ju, ka Latvijai 90. gados bija atva\u013cin\u0101jums, es aprakstu tikai Va\u0161ingtonas \u0101rlietu politiku.<\/p>\n
T\u0101tad “\u0123eopolitikas atrieb\u012bba” ir vienk\u0101r\u0161i atgrie\u0161an\u0101s pie dabisk\u0101 cilv\u0113ku “status quo”, proti, pie konflikta starp n\u0101cij\u0101m. Un \u0161is konflikts var b\u016bt bru\u0146ots vai nebru\u0146ots, ta\u010du t\u0101 ir konkurence, s\u0101ncens\u012bba starp lielvar\u0101m, uzleco\u0161\u0101m lielvar\u0101m, norieto\u0161\u0101m lielvar\u0101m, lielvar\u0101m viduspoz\u012bcij\u0101, t\u0101ds k\u0101 dabisks st\u0101voklis.<\/p>\n
Es saku “atrieb\u012bba”, jo \u0161\u012b ir \u012bpa\u0161i nestabila un \u0101tri uzliesmojo\u0161a glob\u0101l\u0101 aina. At\u0161\u0137ir\u012bb\u0101 no Aukst\u0101 kara, kas bija bipol\u0101ra pasaule, proti, Maskavas pasaule un Va\u0161ingtonas pasaule. \u0160obr\u012bd m\u0113s esam multipol\u0101r\u0101 pasaul\u0113, kas ir daudz neparedzam\u0101ka, un pasaules k\u0101rt\u012bbas noteikumi, ko izveidoja ASV, amerik\u0101\u0146u rad\u012bt\u0101 k\u0101rt\u012bba pasaul\u0113 p\u0113c Otr\u0101 pasaules kara, tagad ir kas t\u0101ds, ko pati Amerika prezidenta Trampa vad\u012bb\u0101 noliedz. \u0160\u012b ir \u0101rk\u0101rt\u012bgi dinamiski nestabila situ\u0101cija, t\u0101p\u0113c es izmantoju terminu “\u0123eopolitikas atrieb\u012bba”.<\/p>\n
Lekcij\u0101 par Jesaju Berlinu j\u016bs sac\u012bj\u0101t, ka B\u017eezinskis netic\u0113ja, ka Berl\u012bnes m\u016bra kri\u0161ana atrisin\u0101s pasaules probl\u0113mas, tie\u0161i pret\u0113ji. Tas sasaucas ar Fukujamas t\u0113zi, ka l\u012bdz ar Aukst\u0101 kara beig\u0101m beigusies ar\u012b v\u0113sture k\u0101 t\u0101da. Kas bija t\u0101 probl\u0113ma, ko B\u017eezinskis defin\u0113ja no savas perspekt\u012bvas, dom\u0101jot par to, kas notiek Rietumu pasaul\u0113 vai ASV?<\/p>\n
Es dom\u0101ju, vi\u0146\u0161 saskat\u012bja probl\u0113mu vienpol\u0101raj\u0101 pasaul\u0113, ko m\u0113s pieredz\u0113j\u0101m 90. gados. Pasaule, kur\u0101 Savienotaj\u0101m Valst\u012bm nebija neviena \u012bsta s\u0101ncen\u0161a. Un kur\u0101 Savienot\u0101s Valstis veidoja t\u0101 saucamo Va\u0161ingtonas konsensu ekonomiskaj\u0101 zi\u0146\u0101: “Te b\u016bs ekonomikas noteikumi, te b\u016bs sh\u0113ma, cilv\u0113kiem tai j\u0101seko. Past\u0101v viens r\u012bc\u012bbas modelis. M\u0113s esam k\u0101p\u0146u aug\u0161gal\u0101, varam jums pal\u012bdz\u0113t k\u0101pt pa \u0161\u012bm k\u0101pn\u0113m, ta\u010du k\u0101pnes ir tikai vienas.”<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146a skat\u012bjum\u0101 te izpaud\u0101s “hybris”, iedom\u012bba, kas izrais\u012bs pretreakciju un aizvainojumu pret ASV. 90. gadu s\u0101kum\u0101 vi\u0146\u0161 sarakst\u012bja gr\u0101matu “\u0100rpus kontroles”, kas \u013coti at\u0161\u0137\u012br\u0101s no Fukujamas darba “V\u0113stures beigas”.<\/p>\n
\u0160ai gr\u0101mat\u0101 B\u017ee\u017einskis argument\u0113ja, ka veidosies t\u0101du valstu koal\u012bcija, kas jut\u012bsies \u0161\u012bs vienpol\u0101r\u0101s Amerikas atstumtas. Vi\u0146\u0161 to nosauca par “aizvainoto asi”: \u0136\u012bna, Krievija, Ir\u0101na, Zieme\u013ckoreja. Vi\u0146\u0161 nosauca \u0161\u012bs un citas valstis. Ka t\u0101s k\u013c\u016bs par aizvien sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101ku revizionistisku izaicin\u0101jumu pasaules k\u0101rt\u012bbai, kas Amerikas skat\u012bjum\u0101 bija neapstr\u012bdama.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 teica: “N\u0113, t\u0101 tiks apstr\u012bd\u0113ta. Gatavojieties prettriecienam!” Gatavojieties tam, ko es saucu par “\u0123eopolitikas atrieb\u012bbu”. Tas ir tas pats. Un vi\u0146\u0101 toreiz \u012bpa\u0161i neieklaus\u012bj\u0101s. Tas nebija konsenss. Tolaik notika daudz pa\u0161ov\u0101ciju, aplausu pa\u0161iem sev. Va\u0161ingtona 90. gados nebija \u012bsti gatava uzklaus\u012bt \u0161\u0101du v\u0113st\u012bjumu. Tagad protams, m\u0113s dz\u012bvojam ar \u0161o realit\u0101ti.<\/p>\n
Ar\u012b j\u016bs rakst\u012bj\u0101t: “pien\u0101cis laiks dom\u0101t, ka Amerika ir norieta posm\u0101”. T\u0101 bija j\u016bsu gr\u0101mata, kas izn\u0101ca, \u0161\u0137iet, pirms 13\u00a0gadiem. Vai var apgalvot, ka tagad redzam \u0161o ASV lejupsl\u012bdi, par kuru br\u012bdin\u0101j\u0101t? Vai ar\u012b tam, ko v\u0113rojam tagad, ir pavisam at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bgs iemesls?<\/p>\n
Dom\u0101ju, tas ir cie\u0161i saist\u012bts. Es patie\u0161\u0101m uzskatu, ka Donalda Trampa iev\u0113l\u0113\u0161ana vismaz da\u013c\u0113ji ir saist\u012bta ar ien\u0101kumu medi\u0101nas stagn\u0101ciju Amerik\u0101. \u0160is jaunais pesimisms, kas ir \u013coti neamerik\u0101nisks, doma, ka tavi b\u0113rni neb\u016bs p\u0101rtiku\u0161\u0101ki par tevi. Nekas t\u0101ds Amerik\u0101 iepriek\u0161 nav bijis, vismaz, kop\u0161 Liel\u0101s Depresijas ne.<\/p>\n
Tas ir main\u012bjis politisko noska\u0146ojumu un pal\u012bdz\u0113ja Trampam tikt pie varas pirmaj\u0101 reiz\u0113, 2016.\u00a0gad\u0101. Mana gr\u0101mata “Pien\u0101cis laiks dom\u0101t” izn\u0101ca 2012.\u00a0gad\u0101. T\u0101 apl\u016bko to, ka amerik\u0101\u0146u vidus, vidussl\u0101nis, tuk\u0161ojas. Un tas iet rokrok\u0101 ar politiku. Zaud\u0113jot ekonomisko vidussl\u0101ni, tiek zaud\u0113ts ar\u012b politiskais vidus. Vajag sp\u0113c\u012bgu bur\u017eu\u0101ziju, lai past\u0101v\u0113tu sp\u0113c\u012bga demokr\u0101tija.<\/p>\n
\nUn \u0161\u012bs liel\u0101s izmai\u0146as amerik\u0101\u0146u vidussl\u0101n\u012b rad\u012bju\u0161as stipru polariz\u0101ciju politiskaj\u0101 pasaul\u0113. Tramps ir \u0161\u012bs situ\u0101cijas produkts. Tramps nav amerik\u0101\u0146u populisma c\u0113lonis, vi\u0146\u0161 ir vistie\u0161\u0101kais t\u0101 simptoms.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Es nerakst\u012bju par Trampu taj\u0101 gr\u0101mat\u0101 2012.\u00a0gad\u0101, ta\u010du, ja cilv\u0113ki izlas\u012btu \u0161o gr\u0101matu, dro\u0161i vien neb\u016btu p\u0101rsteigti, ka tuvojas kaut k\u0101ds populisms. [..]<\/p>\n
T\u0101 ir aina, kas paveras uz vietas. Tas ir Amerikas demokr\u0101tijas relat\u012bvais noriets\u00a0\u2013 demokr\u0101tijas k\u0101 z\u012bmola, k\u0101 mode\u013ca, kam l\u012bdzin\u0101ties, no k\u0101 iedvesmoties. Past\u0101v relat\u012bvs noriets saist\u012bb\u0101 ar \u0136\u012bnas izvirz\u012b\u0161anos un citu BRICS bloka valstu izvirz\u012b\u0161an\u0101s, kas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka Amerikas unipol\u0101r\u0101 situ\u0101cija jau sen ir gar\u0101m. Un t\u0101p\u0113c Amerikai cie\u0161\u0101k j\u0101sastr\u0101d\u0101jas ar partneriem, ar sabiedrotajiem un ar citiem, lai uztur\u0113tu savu varu un ietekmi.<\/p>\n
Un tra\u0123iska \u0161\u012b br\u012b\u017ea iez\u012bme ir tas, ka Amerika dodas pret\u0113j\u0101 virzien\u0101, t\u0101 atgr\u016b\u017e sabiedrotos. T\u0101 iesaist\u0101s glob\u0101los tirdzniec\u012bbas karos un bilater\u0101l\u0101s ekonomiskaj\u0101s c\u012b\u0146\u0101s ar saviem sabiedrotajiem. Piem\u0113ram, ar Jap\u0101nu Klus\u0101 oke\u0101na austrumu re\u0123ion\u0101. Ar Dienvidkoreju, ar Indiju. T\u0101 atgr\u016b\u017e savus partnerus un draugus tad, kad tie visvair\u0101k vajadz\u012bgi. Un t\u0101 ir\u00a0laikam jau sava veida \u0123eopolitiska tra\u0123\u0113dija, kas \u0161obr\u012bd notiek.<\/p>\n
Vai, j\u016bsupr\u0101t, ir iesp\u0113jams atdz\u012bvin\u0101t liber\u0101lo demokr\u0101tiju?<\/p>\n
J\u0101. Zin\u0101t, manu jaun\u0101ko gr\u0101matu sauc “Rietumu liber\u0101lisma atk\u0101p\u0161an\u0101s”. Izdev\u0113js grib\u0113ja nosaukum\u0101 likt “Rietumu liber\u0101lisma sabrukums”. Es teicu, ka tas nav sabrukums, sp\u0113le nekad nebeidzas. M\u016bsu sist\u0113mas piedz\u012bvo cikliskas p\u0101rmai\u0146as. Un \u0161is ir dr\u016bms un b\u012bstams br\u012bdis liber\u0101l\u0101s demokr\u0101tijas aizst\u0101vjiem.<\/p>\n
Past\u0101v zin\u0101mas analo\u0123ijas ar 20.\u00a0gadsimta 30. gadiem, kas ir nepat\u012bkami atbilsto\u0161as. Tom\u0113r sp\u0113le nav beigusies, pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 vald\u012bbas sist\u0113ma joproj\u0101m ir visslikt\u0101k\u0101 iesp\u0113jam\u0101 sist\u0113ma, ja neskait\u0101m visas p\u0101r\u0113j\u0101s. T\u0101 ir vismaz\u0101k slikt\u0101. Un da\u017ek\u0101rt mums j\u0101piedz\u012bvo pa\u0161iem savas k\u013c\u016bdas, lai to saprastu. T\u0101pat k\u0101 ar vesel\u012bbu. To, cik vesel\u012bba ir svar\u012bga, m\u0113s apzin\u0101mies tikai tad, kad t\u0101 s\u0101k zust. Cerams, m\u0113s ar laiku saprat\u012bsim, ka alternat\u012bvas liber\u0101lajai demokr\u0101tijai ir krietni nevesel\u012bg\u0101kas.<\/p>\n
Kad rakst\u012bj\u0101t gr\u0101matu par B\u017eezinski, vai bija br\u012b\u017ei, kad j\u016bs pats k\u013cuv\u0101t par B\u017eezinski?<\/p>\n
Kad es k\u013cuvu par B\u017eezinski?<\/p>\n
J\u0101, par B\u017eezinski. Rakstot gr\u0101matu, v\u0113rojot, vai tik\u0101t dom\u0101jis, k\u0101 B\u017eezinskis v\u0113rt\u0113tu kaut k\u0101dus \u0161odienas aspektus?<\/p>\n
J\u0101, gr\u016bts jaut\u0101jums.<\/p>\n
Ko vi\u0146\u0161 teiktu par to vai citu viedokli attiec\u012bgaj\u0101 situ\u0101cij\u0101?<\/p>\n
Daudzi man jaut\u0101ju\u0161i. Viena lieta ir rakst\u012bt biogr\u0101fiju. Tas ir cit\u0101di, nek\u0101 rakst\u012bt publicistisku prozu. Esmu rakst\u012bjis publicistiku.<\/p>\n
Savuk\u0101rt \u0161\u012b gr\u0101mata t\u0101da nebija, \u0161\u012b bija p\u0113c akad\u0113miskiem standartiem. Itin visam bija j\u0101b\u016bt dokument\u0113t\u0101m, balst\u012btam faktos. Gr\u0101matas beig\u0101s k\u0101das 50\u00a0lappuses aiz\u0146em piez\u012bmes. T\u0101p\u0113c gr\u0101mata apst\u0101jas 2017.\u00a0gada maij\u0101, kad vi\u0146\u0161 nomira. Kad man uzdod jaut\u0101jumu: “Ko vi\u0146\u0161 tagad dom\u0101tu? Ko Zbigs dar\u012btu?”, es k\u013c\u016bstu sev nerakstur\u012bgi pietic\u012bgs un kautr\u012bgs kaut ko min\u0113t.<\/p>\n
Ta\u010du varu pateikt, ko vi\u0146\u0161 nedar\u012btu. Vi\u0146\u0161 neieteiktu atsve\u0161in\u0101t sabiedrotos. Vi\u0146\u0161 saprastu, t\u0101pat k\u0101 Kisind\u017eers, vi\u0146i par to b\u016btu vienispr\u0101tis, vi\u0146\u0161 saprastu, ka Amerikas sp\u0113ks daudzk\u0101r\u0161otos caur draudz\u012bb\u0101m un alians\u0113m.<\/p>\n
\u0136\u012bnai ir viens sabiedrotais: Zieme\u013ckoreja. Form\u0101li tikai viens sabiedrotais.<\/p>\n
\nAmerikai ir desmitiem da\u017e\u0101du alian\u0161u un ofici\u0101lu nol\u012bgumu ikvien\u0101 kontinent\u0101. T\u0101d\u0113j\u0101di Amerikas sp\u0113ks daudzk\u0101r\u0161ojas. Un es baidos, ka Amerikai tas b\u016bs j\u0101zaud\u0113 vai da\u013c\u0113ji j\u0101zaud\u0113, lai saprastu t\u0101 v\u0113rt\u012bbu.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Dom\u0101ju, ka B\u017eezinskis to \u013coti skaidri pateiktu. Vi\u0146\u0161 bija \u0101rk\u0101rt\u012bgi efekt\u012bvs, tie\u0161s un nesaudz\u012bgs sav\u0101 komunik\u0101cij\u0101. Dom\u0101ju, ja vi\u0146\u0161 v\u0113l b\u016btu dz\u012bvs, vi\u0146\u0161 piln\u012bgi skaidri un nep\u0101rprotami izteiktos par to vand\u0101lismu, \u0123eopolitiski diplom\u0101tisko vand\u0101lismu, ko Va\u0161ingtona pa\u0161reiz \u012bsteno.<\/p>\n
Ar\u012b daudzi diplom\u0101ti izsak\u0101s, ka diplom\u0101tija vairs nestr\u0101d\u0101. Dom\u0101ju, diplom\u0101tiju m\u0113s m\u016bsdien\u0101s varam redz\u0113t kan\u0101l\u0101 “CNN Live” no Balt\u0101 nama biroja. Aukst\u0101 kara laika diplom\u0101tija ir v\u0113sturisks relikts.<\/p>\n
Ir daudz, daudz gr\u016bt\u0101k veidot diplom\u0101tiju soci\u0101lo t\u012bklu laikmet\u0101. Ir vajadz\u012bga iesp\u0113ja patverties, vajadz\u012bgs zin\u0101ms priv\u0101tums, j\u0101b\u016bt prom no starme\u0161u gaismas, lai veidotu atkl\u0101tu sarunu.<\/p>\n
Es dom\u0101ju, zin\u0101t, ja atceramies B\u017eezinska laiku, prezidenta K\u0101rtera Kempdeividas miera l\u012bgums starp Izra\u0113lu un \u0112\u0123ipti 1978.\u00a0gad\u0101. Sarunas rit\u0113ja 13\u00a0dienas! 13\u00a0dienas Kempdeivid\u0101! Bez inform\u0101cijas nopl\u016bd\u0113m, bez mobilajiem telefoniem, bez interneta, bez bezvadu t\u012bkla. Pla\u0161sazi\u0146as l\u012bdzek\u013ci nezin\u0101ja neko.<\/p>\n
B\u016btu bijis neiesp\u0113jami pan\u0101kt \u0161o vieno\u0161anos, ja valstu vad\u012bt\u0101ji un vi\u0146u komandas rakst\u012btu tviter\u012b, zvan\u012btu, inform\u0113tu \u017eurn\u0101listus. Tas b\u016btu bijis neiesp\u0113jami. T\u0101p\u0113c varam sac\u012bt, ka diplom\u0101tiju ir daudz gr\u016bt\u0101k veidot m\u016bsdienu tehnolo\u0123iskaj\u0101 vid\u0113. Daudz gr\u016bt\u0101k pan\u0101kt to no\u0161\u0137irt\u012bbu, gandr\u012bz vai klostera izol\u0113t\u012bbu, kas nepiecie\u0161ama, lai veidotu \u012bstas, patiesas, padzi\u013cin\u0101tas sarunas. Krietni gr\u016bt\u0101k. [..]<\/p>\n
T\u0101pat ar\u012b politik\u0101. V\u0113l\u0113\u0161anu cikls, \u012bstermi\u0146a skat\u012bjums. T\u0101 k\u0101 m\u016bsu politika ir tik nepast\u0101v\u012bga un t\u0101 k\u0101 opoz\u012bcija vairum\u0101 m\u016bsu demokr\u0101tiju vairs nav draudz\u012bga opoz\u012bcija, ar kuru “main\u012bties dr\u0113b\u0113m”, tad tu esi pie varas, tad es esmu pie varas. Tagad izv\u0113le ir krietni cit\u0101da.<\/p>\n
Ir daudz gr\u016bt\u0101k, sare\u017e\u0123\u012bt\u0101k dom\u0101t ilgtermi\u0146\u0101. D\u0113st\u012bt z\u012bles un izt\u0113loties, k\u0101 kuplos ozoli. Ar to nodarbojas patiesi laba diplom\u0101tija\u00a0\u2013 dom\u0101 ilgtermi\u0146\u0101. Savuk\u0101rt v\u0113l\u0113\u0161anu horizonts ir \u013coti zems. Un iesp\u0113ja, ka tu pieredz\u0113si labumu no \u0161\u012bs zem\u0113 ied\u0113st\u012bt\u0101s z\u012bles, ir \u013coti neliela. Es itin nemaz neapskau\u017eu diplom\u0101tus, kas cen\u0161as veidot diplom\u0101tiju 2025.\u00a0gad\u0101. Tom\u0113r vi\u0146u centieni ir \u012bpa\u0161i svar\u012bgi. Jo alternat\u012bva diplom\u0101tijai ir kar\u0161. Kar\u0161 ir diplom\u0101tija ar citiem l\u012bdzek\u013ciem. Un otr\u0101di. T\u0101p\u0113c es run\u0101ju par \u0123eopolitikas atrieb\u012bbu\u00a0\u2013 past\u0101vo\u0161ais klimats \u013coti sare\u017e\u0123\u012b vald\u012bbu darbu\u00a0\u2013 jebkuras vald\u012bbas darbu.<\/p>\n
Dom\u0101jot par t\u0101d\u0101m person\u012bb\u0101m k\u0101 Kisind\u017eers, k\u0101 B\u017eezinskis, mums vienm\u0113r \u0161\u0137iet, ka m\u016bsdien\u0101s nav t\u0101da kalibra strat\u0113\u0123u. Vai varb\u016bt m\u0113s vienk\u0101r\u0161i nesp\u0113jam vi\u0146us identific\u0113t \u0161odienas situ\u0101cij\u0101, jo esam iesaist\u012bti pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101s probl\u0113m\u0101s, bet to saprast iesp\u0113jams vien\u012bgi v\u0113l\u0101k? Ka iepriek\u0161 mums k\u0101ds t\u0101ds ir tom\u0113r bijis.<\/p>\n
\u0160o jaut\u0101jumu man bie\u017ei uzdod Savienotaj\u0101s Valst\u012bs: kur ir \u0161odienas kisind\u017eeri un b\u017eezinski, d\u017eord\u017ei kenoni, d\u012bni e\u010desoni? Kur vi\u0146i ir? Es dom\u0101ju, ka probl\u0113ma nesl\u0113pjas pied\u0101v\u0101jum\u0101. Amerikas universit\u0101tes joproj\u0101m rada fantastiskus cilv\u0113kus, akad\u0113mi\u0137us un p\u0113tniekus. T\u0101 nu caurul\u0113 \u016bdens nav izsus\u0113jis, dom\u0101ju, joproj\u0101m past\u0101v caurule, pa kuru n\u0101k izcili cilv\u0113ki gan no Amerikas, gan \u0101rpus t\u0101s.<\/p>\n
\nProbl\u0113ma ir piepras\u012bjum\u0101, nevis pied\u0101v\u0101jum\u0101. Probl\u0113ma ir piepras\u012bjum\u0101. Politikai neinteres\u0113 strat\u0113\u0123isku smadze\u0146u att\u012bst\u012b\u0161ana tik izcil\u0101 form\u0101, k\u0101 pieredz\u0113j\u0101m Aukst\u0101 kara laik\u0101.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Aukstais kar\u0161 bija daudz, daudz vienk\u0101r\u0161\u0101ks. Tas bija dr\u012bz\u0101k maniheistisks, tas bija par gaismu vai tumsu. Tas lika pr\u0101tiem fokus\u0113ties divpartiju sist\u0113m\u0101 Savienotaj\u0101s Valst\u012bs. M\u016bsdienu izaicin\u0101jumu mulsino\u0161ais raksturs nefokus\u0113 pr\u0101tus, tas tos izklied\u0113.<\/p>\n
Dom\u0101ju, ka mums netr\u016bkst labu pr\u0101tu, netr\u016bkst strat\u0113\u0123isko sp\u0113ju, bet tr\u016bkst sp\u0113jas to visu nov\u0113rt\u0113t, apzin\u0101ties, cik mums tas vajadz\u012bgs. Va\u0161ingtona ir \u013coti konformistiska. Taj\u0101 valda bara dom\u0101\u0161ana. B\u016bsiet dzird\u0113ju\u0161i terminu “the blob”\u00a0\u2013 p\u013ceka\u00a0\u2013 tas ir t\u0101ds visai niev\u0101jo\u0161s Va\u0161ingtonas \u0101rlietu politikas konsensa raksturojums. T\u0101tad ir \u0161\u012b p\u013ceka, kas nemudina dom\u0101t neatkar\u012bgi, t\u0101 mudina pak\u013cauties past\u0101vo\u0161ajai l\u012bnijai.<\/p>\n
Un tad v\u0113l, protams, ir Tramps. Tramps ir t\u0101da k\u0101 nejau\u0161u psiholo\u0123isku r\u012bc\u012bbu virkne, nevis strat\u0113\u0123iskas dom\u0101\u0161anas produkts. Tas ir sare\u017e\u0123\u012bti. Nezinu, vai B\u017eezinskis vai Kisind\u017eers b\u016btu guvu\u0161i pan\u0101kumus, ja vi\u0146i b\u016btu m\u016bsdienu tr\u012bsdesmitgadnieki vai \u010detrdesmitgadnieki. Nedom\u0101ju, ka vi\u0146i b\u016btu stipr\u0101s poz\u012bcij\u0101s.<\/p>\n
Es satiku Kisind\u017eeru pirms 20\u00a0gadiem, ierakst\u012bj\u0101m interviju, tolaik Latvijas Telev\u012bzijai. \u0160ai sarun\u0101 vi\u0146\u0161 teica: ja ASV to neb\u016btu grib\u0113jusi, Baltijas valstis nem\u016b\u017eam neb\u016btu atguvu\u0161as neatkar\u012bbu. Vai \u0161obr\u012bd Baltijas valstis var pa\u013cauties uz ASV?<\/p>\n
Kisind\u017eeram tur noteikti ir taisn\u012bba. Dom\u0101ju, ka vi\u0146\u0161 ar\u012b piebilda\u00a0\u2013 vai citur tika izteicies\u00a0\u2013, ka ar\u012b Gorba\u010dovs ir \u013coti b\u016btiska \u0161\u012b vien\u0101dojuma sast\u0101vda\u013ca. Bet j\u016bs esat dr\u016bpo\u0161as imp\u0113rijas austrumu mal\u0101. Tas nenoz\u012bm\u0113, ka \u0161\u012b imp\u0113rija ies boj\u0101, ta\u010du \u0161obr\u012bd \u0161\u012b imp\u0113rija ir \u013coti trausla. T\u0101p\u0113c j\u016bs esat savas jaun\u0101s, atjaunot\u0101s v\u0113stures v\u0101r\u012bg\u0101 posm\u0101.<\/p>\n
Imp\u0113rijas da\u017ek\u0101rt mirst t\u016bksto\u0161iem gadu garum\u0101.<\/p>\n
J\u0101. Da\u017ek\u0101rt t\u0101s nomirst, citk\u0101rt t\u0101m lejupsl\u012bdes periodi mijas ar atjauno\u0161an\u0101s posmiem. Ta\u010du amerik\u0101\u0146u imp\u0113rija at\u0161\u0137iras no vairuma imp\u0113riju. K\u0101 jau iepriek\u0161 teicu, t\u0101 ir imp\u0113rija, kas balst\u012bta uz alians\u0113m, br\u012bvpr\u0101t\u012bg\u0101m alians\u0113m, nevis uz satel\u012btiem, okup\u0113t\u0101m valst\u012bm, bet uz br\u012bvpr\u0101t\u012bg\u0101m savien\u012bb\u0101m. T\u0101p\u0113c tas, kas notiek Amerikas iek\u0161ien\u0113, Amerikas politik\u0101, \u0101rk\u0101rt\u012bgi b\u016btiski ietekm\u0113 n\u0101kotnes dro\u0161\u012bbu Baltijas valst\u012bs un daudz\u0101s cit\u0101s. Un galu gal\u0101\u00a0\u2013 m\u016bsu visu dro\u0161\u012bbu.<\/p>\n
Amerikai no jauna j\u0101atceras alian\u0161u v\u0113rt\u012bba, sabiedroto v\u0113rt\u012bba.<\/p>\n
\nProtams, m\u0113s varam izdar\u012bt kaut ko, lai no jauna uzsv\u0113rtu m\u016bsu v\u0113rt\u012bbu Amerikai, pieliekot liel\u0101kas p\u016bles, p\u0101r\u0146emot r\u0113\u0137inus un uz\u0146emoties atbild\u012bbu, pieliekot ar\u012b savu plecu m\u016bsu kop\u012bgajai aizsardz\u012bbai.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Es uzskatu, ka \u0161ai zi\u0146\u0101 Donalda Trampa viedoklis ir pamatots, un tas ir t\u0101ds pats k\u0101 D\u017eo Baidenam, Barakam Obamam un D\u017eord\u017eam Bu\u0161am. Vi\u0146i visi bija vienispr\u0101tis, ka Eiropai, ka transatlantisk\u0101s savien\u012bbas Eiropas pusei, j\u0101darbojas akt\u012bv\u0101k. Iesp\u0113jams, m\u016bs gaida paradokss: tie\u0161i t\u0101p\u0113c, ka Tramps m\u016bs sabied\u0113s, m\u0113s k\u013c\u016bsim akt\u012bv\u0101ki.<\/p>\n
V\u0113stur\u0113 paradoksu ir papilnam. Ta\u010du mums ir j\u0101turpina b\u016bt akt\u012bviem, turkl\u0101t j\u0101dara tas daudz ori\u0123in\u0101l\u0101k, nevis vienk\u0101r\u0161i j\u0101t\u0113r\u0113 vair\u0101k naudas. Mums j\u0101ieg\u016bst \u0161ie l\u012bdzek\u013ci, mums nepiecie\u0161ami kop\u012bgi iepirkumi, naudai ir j\u0101nes re\u0101ls labums, kas b\u016btu k\u0101 apdro\u0161in\u0101\u0161anas polise gad\u012bjum\u0101, ja Amerika patie\u0161\u0101m izst\u0101tos. Kas ir iesp\u0113jams. T\u0101 nu lab\u0101kais pa\u0146\u0113miens, k\u0101 nodro\u0161in\u0101t Baltijas valstu n\u0101kotnes dro\u0161\u012bbu, protams, ir saist\u012bts ar alians\u0113m, ar Ameriku vai bez t\u0101s. Tom\u0113r t\u0101 ir j\u016bsu vien\u012bg\u0101 n\u0101kotne.<\/p>\n
Protams, m\u0113s nemit\u012bgi diskut\u0113jam ar\u012b par to, kas notiktu gad\u012bjum\u0101, ja b\u016btu j\u0101iedarbina NATO l\u012bguma 5.\u00a0pants. \u0160is jaut\u0101jums izteikts sam\u0113r\u0101 bie\u017ei Latvijas, t\u0101pat ar\u012b p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 Eiropas pla\u0161sazi\u0146as l\u012bdzek\u013cos. K\u0101 jums \u0161\u0137iet, k\u0101 tas darbosies?<\/p>\n
Zin\u0101t, Igaunija bie\u017ei tiek min\u0113ta k\u0101 hipot\u0113tisks piem\u0113rs, jo laikam krievu minorit\u0101te, krievvalod\u012bgo minorit\u0101te tur ir liel\u0101ka un akt\u012bv\u0101ka nek\u0101 Latvij\u0101 un Lietuv\u0101. Bet, ja gad\u012bjum\u0101 Igaunij\u0101 notiktu k\u0101ds safabric\u0113ts incidents, kas novestu pie pastiprin\u0101ta hibr\u012bdkara vai \u012bsta krievu iebrukuma k\u0101d\u0101 Igaunijas da\u013c\u0101, t\u0101 b\u016btu 5.\u00a0panta situ\u0101cija.<\/p>\n
Jaut\u0101jums, vai Trampam tas r\u016bp\u0113tu. Un man nav ne jausmas, k\u0101da ir atbilde. Protams, atbildei b\u016btu bez dom\u0101\u0161anas j\u0101b\u016bt: “J\u0101, 5.\u00a0pants, savstarp\u0113j\u0101 aizsardz\u012bba.” Es tie\u0161\u0101m nezinu atbildi Donalda Trampa gad\u012bjum\u0101. Neviens to nezina. Un diez vai Donalds Tramps pats zina atbildi. Donalds Tramps r\u012bkojas instinkt\u012bvi. Vi\u0146\u0161 nelasa, vi\u0146am nepiem\u012bt dzi\u013ca zin\u0101tk\u0101re, v\u0113lme m\u0101c\u012bties, ar\u012b ne pag\u0101tn\u0113.<\/p>\n
K\u0101rters las\u012bja 500\u00a0lappuses dien\u0101, k\u0101 j\u016bs teic\u0101t.<\/p>\n
K\u0101rters\u2026 K\u0101rters las\u012bja p\u0101r\u0101k daudz. Vi\u0146i ir t\u0101di k\u0101 pretstati. J\u0101, Tramps. \u0160aubos, vai vi\u0146\u0161 puslappusi dien\u0101 izlasa. Vi\u0146\u0161 lasa, vi\u0146\u0161 lasa savus ierakstus “Truth Social” t\u012bkl\u0101. Cilv\u0113ki izdruk\u0101 e-pastus. Tom\u0113r tie ir vienrindi\u0146as teksti. Vi\u0146\u0161 ir neparedzams.<\/p>\n
Nezinu atbildi uz jaut\u0101jumu par 5.\u00a0pantu, un tas ir satrauco\u0161i. Atbilde b\u016btu j\u0101zina Maskav\u0101. T\u0101p\u0113c, ka ar\u012b Maskava non\u0101k pie t\u0101 pa\u0161a secin\u0101juma: m\u0113s nezin\u0101m. Un, protams, k\u0101rdin\u0101jums iegriezt ruletes ratu ir liel\u0101ks.<\/p>\n
K\u0101 jums \u0161\u0137iet, vai ir skaidrs, kas notiek Putina pr\u0101t\u0101? Vai past\u0101v nopietna varb\u016bt\u012bba, ka vi\u0146\u0161 izies uz karu ar NATO?<\/p>\n
Es nedom\u0101ju, ka Putins ir pa\u0161n\u0101vnieks. [..] ASV ir neparedzamas, p\u0101r\u0113j\u0101s NATO valstis st\u0101tos, ja vi\u0146\u0161 (Putins) uzbruktu Eiropai, k\u0101dai NATO dal\u012bbvalstij Eirop\u0101, man nav \u0161aubu, ka Francija, V\u0101cija un Lielbrit\u0101nija, Eiropas lielvalstis visas kop\u0101 piedal\u012btos aizsardz\u012bb\u0101 un pielietotu visus iesp\u0113jamos l\u012bdzek\u013cus, lai pierun\u0101tu Va\u0161ingtonu iesaist\u012bties. [..] Tas ir majorit\u0101tes scen\u0101rijs, tas ir visticam\u0101kais scen\u0101rijs. T\u0101 nu no Putina puses b\u016btu \u013coti neapdom\u012bgi t\u0101 klaji uzs\u0101kt karu ar NATO.<\/p>\n
Un es nedom\u0101ju, ka Putins ir neapdom\u012bgs. No otras puses, k\u0101 teica Sergejs Lavrovs, tikai da\u013c\u0113ji jokodams, Putina tr\u012bs tuv\u0101kie padomdev\u0113ji ir Ivans Bargais, P\u0113teris Pirmais un Katr\u012bna Liel\u0101.<\/p>\n
\nVi\u0146a pr\u0101t\u0101 ir v\u0113sturisk\u0101s kartes. Vi\u0146\u0161 grib, lai valstis, kas tagad ir NATO biedri, atkal inkorpor\u0113tos Krievijas imp\u0113rij\u0101. Tai skait\u0101 Latvija.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
T\u0101p\u0113c j\u0101patur pr\u0101t\u0101, ka Putina psiholo\u0123ija ir aps\u0113sta ar v\u0113sturi, t\u0101 ir par kart\u0113m, par krievu di\u017eenumu. T\u0101pat ar\u012b mums psiholo\u0123iski j\u0101patur pr\u0101t\u0101, ka, ja vi\u0146\u0161 \u0161obr\u012bd p\u0101rtrauktu karu Ukrain\u0101, visi tie veter\u0101ni atgrieztos m\u0101j\u0101s, b\u016btu daudz ievainoto un rekrut\u0113\u0161anas naudas sh\u0113ma apst\u0101tos.<\/p>\n
7000\u00a0krievu karav\u012bru tiek nogalin\u0101ti… <\/p>\n
Katru ned\u0113\u013cu, nevis dienu. J\u0101, katru ned\u0113\u013cu. Kopskait\u0101 miljons ievainoto un kritu\u0161o. Aptuveni 300\u00a0000 miru\u0161o un 700\u00a0000 ievainoto. Tas ir vair\u0101k ievainoto un kritu\u0161o, nek\u0101 kop\u0101 \u0146emot jebkur\u0101 kar\u0101, kur\u0101 c\u012bn\u012bjusies Padomju Savien\u012bba un Krievija no 1945. l\u012bdz 2022.\u00a0gadam.<\/p>\n
T\u0101dam upurim ir j\u0101sp\u0113j uzr\u0101d\u012bt rezult\u0101tus. Un par k\u0101diem 2\u00a0% vair\u0101k Ukrainas zemes, nek\u0101 tev bija pirms tr\u012bsarpus gadiem\u00a0\u2013 tas nav rezult\u0101ts. T\u0101p\u0113c dom\u0101ju, ka mums j\u0101saprot psiholo\u0123iski: Putins nep\u0101rtrauks to karu, jo tas var\u0113tu noz\u012bm\u0113t vi\u0146a beigas.<\/p>\n
T\u0101p\u0113c t\u0101 psiholo\u0123ija, ar jebkuru autokr\u0101tu, jebkur\u0161 autokr\u0101ts baid\u0101s doties pensij\u0101, jo vi\u0146u negaida dro\u0161i pensijas gadi. Ta\u010du Putina gad\u012bjum\u0101 tas j\u0101reizina ar pieci. Mums tas j\u0101patur pr\u0101t\u0101. Mums tam j\u0101pie\u0161\u0137ir centr\u0101l\u0101 loma, cen\u0161oties izprast Putina psiholo\u0123iju.<\/p>\n
Vai j\u016bs piekr\u012btat versijai, ka visas \u0161\u012bs sabot\u0101\u017eas oper\u0101cijas, kas notiek, \u0161ie dronu uzbrukumi Eiropai dom\u0101ti tam, lai eiropie\u0161u uzman\u012bbu nov\u0113rstu no pal\u012bdz\u012bbas snieg\u0161anas Ukrainai uz vi\u0146u pa\u0161u aizsardz\u012bbu?<\/p>\n
Es dom\u0101ju, tas viss at\u0137eks\u0113 diezgan daudzas poz\u012bcijas. T\u0101 iesp\u0113jams novirz\u012bt resursus no Ukrainas, j\u0101. Tas ir viens iesp\u0113jamais labums, kas Putinam pr\u0101t\u0101. Otrs ir tas, ka vi\u0146\u0161 redz vienot\u012bbas tr\u016bkumu rietumvalstu starp\u0101.<\/p>\n
\u0160obr\u012bd Rietumos past\u0101v liels pa\u0161apzi\u0146as kritums. Un vi\u0146\u0161 p\u0101rbauda, pabiksta. Vi\u0146\u0161 paskat\u0101s, k\u0101da tad b\u016bs vi\u0146u reakcija. T\u0101p\u0113c, ka tas ienes inform\u0101ciju, un l\u012bderiem vajag inform\u0101ciju, lai pie\u0146emtu l\u0113mumus. T\u0101pat tas ir tas, ko tirgzin\u012bb\u0101 sauc par cenas noskaidro\u0161anas procesu. Vai ne? Ir \u0161is aspekts.<\/p>\n
T\u0101pat Putina r\u012bc\u012bb\u0101 var b\u016bt ar\u012b patiess bai\u013cu un panikas elements. T\u0101p\u0113c, ka ukrai\u0146i tik labi ir ieman\u012bju\u0161ies nogalin\u0101t vi\u0146a naudas apar\u0101tu. Atvainojos, boj\u0101t vi\u0146a naudas apar\u0101tu, uzbr\u016bkot naftas r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m. Un atcerieties, l\u012bdz \u0161im ukrai\u0146u t\u0113m\u0113jumi pa Krievijas naftas objektiem ir biju\u0161i tikai pa p\u0101rstr\u0101des r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m, nevis cauru\u013cvadiem. Tas nav tie\u0161i sk\u0101ris eksporta jomu, tie nav pa\u0161i naftas lauki, tikai p\u0101rstr\u0101des r\u016bpn\u012bcas. Ja vi\u0146i s\u0101ks t\u0113m\u0113t pa naftas laukiem un izplat\u012b\u0161anu, vi\u0146a naudas apar\u0101ts var aiziet pa pieskari \u013coti \u0101tri. Un vi\u0146\u0161 k\u013c\u016btu aizvien atkar\u012bg\u0101ks no \u0136\u012bnas. T\u0101p\u0113c varb\u016bt taj\u0101 vis\u0101 ir ar\u012b zin\u0101ms izmisuma elements, vi\u0146\u0161 uztraucas par \u0161o virz\u012bbu.<\/p>\n
K\u0101 atceraties ar\u012b no Aukst\u0101 kara perspekt\u012bvas, Padomju Savien\u012bba sabruka ekonomikas d\u0113\u013c.<\/p>\n
Tie\u0161i t\u0101. Tie\u0161i t\u0101.<\/p>\n
J\u0101. \u0160ai zi\u0146\u0101 m\u0113s to nevaram sal\u012bdzin\u0101t ar \u0161odienas situ\u0101ciju. Vai varam? Ka ekonomika nogalin\u0101s Krieviju.<\/p>\n
Tas ir labs jaut\u0101jums. Past\u0101v da\u017eas virspus\u0113jas analo\u0123ijas ar 70. un 80. gadiem. 20.\u00a0gadsimta 70. un 80. gadiem. Un viena no t\u0101m, protams, ir Padomju Savien\u012bbas ekonomisk\u0101 stagn\u0101cija un fakts, ka aizvien liel\u0101ka da\u013ca t\u0101s bud\u017eeta tika t\u0113r\u0113ta aizsardz\u012bbai. T\u0101 ir viena analo\u0123ija. Protams, aizvien liel\u0101ka da\u013ca Krievijas bud\u017eeta tiek novirz\u012bta aizsardz\u012bbai.<\/p>\n
Un v\u0113l viens bija pieaugo\u0161\u0101 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju neapmierin\u0101t\u012bba ar karu Afganist\u0101n\u0101, kuru vi\u0146i nesaprata. K\u0101p\u0113c m\u0113s karojam kaut k\u0101d\u0101 kar\u0101\u00a0Afganist\u0101n\u0101? Es dom\u0101ju, ka iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju tolerance pret daudz augst\u0101ku cietu\u0161o skaitu Ukrain\u0101 ir da\u013c\u0113ji saist\u012bta ar rekrut\u0113\u0161anas pabalstiem un pabalstiem n\u0101ves gad\u012bjum\u0101, ko Putins maks\u0101 no saviem ien\u0101kumiem par naftu. Un ar\u012b dro\u0161i vien ir viegl\u0101k p\u0101rdot upur\u0113\u0161anos Ukrain\u0101, karo\u0161anu Ukrain\u0101, jo “T\u0101 ir m\u016bsu m\u0101tes zeme, t\u0101 ir Krievija, m\u0113s ta\u010du to visi saprotam, vai ne?”, nek\u0101 karo\u0161anu Afganist\u0101n\u0101. Kur atrodas Afganist\u0101na? K\u0101ds tai sakars ar mums?<\/p>\n
Dom\u0101ju, ka paral\u0113les ar 70. un 80. gadiem ir der\u012bgas, ta\u010du, manupr\u0101t, ekonomisk\u0101s paral\u0113les ir interesant\u0101kas nek\u0101 l\u012bdz\u012bba ar Afganist\u0101nu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Kam\u0113r ASV piedz\u012bvo sava lielvaras statusa norietu, att\u0101linoties no sabiedrotajiem Eirop\u0101 un\u00a0citos pasaules re\u0123ionos, Krievijas provok\u0101cijas Eirop\u0101 k\u013c\u016bst\u00a0bie\u017e\u0101kas.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31356,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-31355","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-latvia","18":"tag-latvian","19":"tag-latviesu","20":"tag-latviesu-valoda","21":"tag-latviesuvaloda","22":"tag-latvija","23":"tag-lv","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-popularakas-zinas","26":"tag-popularakaszinas","27":"tag-top-stories","28":"tag-topstories","29":"tag-world","30":"tag-world-news","31":"tag-worldnews","32":"tag-zinas","33":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115439665392186208","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31355"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31355\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}