Tirgus drudzis: Vai m\u0113s saskaramies ar burbuli vai ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bgu izaugsmi?<\/p>\n
P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 finan\u0161u tirgos v\u0113rojama rekordaugsta izaugsme, ta\u010du aiz \u0161\u012b spo\u017e\u0101 fas\u0101des sl\u0113pjas pieaugo\u0161as ba\u017eas par iesp\u0113jam\u0101m kr\u012bz\u0113m. \u0160oned\u0113\u013c vien tirgus zaud\u0113jis aptuveni pus triljonu dol\u0101ru, jo liel\u0101ko tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumu, tostarp Nvidia, Microsoft un Palantir Technologies, akciju cenas piedz\u012bvoja \u012bslaic\u012bgu, bet iev\u0113rojamu kritumu. Lai gan tas var\u0113tu b\u016bt tikai \u012bslaic\u012bga korekcija, eksperti br\u012bdina par potenci\u0101lu finan\u0161u tirgus krachu, kas var\u0113tu izmaks\u0101t daudzk\u0101rt vair\u0101k.<\/p>\n
AI vilnis: cer\u012bbas un riski<\/p>\n
Arvien liel\u0101ka atkar\u012bba no tehnolo\u0123ij\u0101m un m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta (MI) liek kriti\u0137iem uzskat\u012bt, ka likt likmes uz \u0161iem ie\u0146\u0113mumiem ir azartsp\u0113le, jo n\u0101kotne paliek neskaidra. Singap\u016bras centr\u0101l\u0101 banka pievienojusies glob\u0101lajam br\u012bdin\u0101jumu korim, ko paudu\u0161i ar\u012b Starptautiskais Val\u016btas Fonds (SVF), ASV Feder\u0101lo rezervju sist\u0113mas priek\u0161s\u0113d\u0113t\u0101js Jeroms Pauels un Anglijas Bankas vad\u012bt\u0101js Endrj\u016b Beilijs. Vi\u0146i visi pau\u017e ba\u017eas par p\u0101rv\u0113rt\u0113t\u0101m akcij\u0101m. Singap\u016bras Monet\u0101r\u0101 iest\u0101de nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka \u0161o tendenci veicina \u201coptimisms par MI sp\u0113ju rad\u012bt pietiekamus n\u0101kotnes ien\u0101kumus\u201d, kas var\u0113tu izrais\u012bt straujas korekcijas pla\u0161\u0101k\u0101 akciju tirg\u016b.<\/p>\n
Ekspertu prognozes un potenci\u0101lie zaud\u0113jumi<\/p>\n
Finan\u0161u giganti, piem\u0113ram, Goldman Sachs un Morgan Stanley, prognoz\u0113 akciju cenas kritumu par 10\u201320% n\u0101kamo vienu l\u012bdz divu gadu laik\u0101, k\u0101 to pazi\u0146oju\u0161i vi\u0146u izpilddirektori Honkong\u0101 notiku\u0161aj\u0101 Global Financial Leaders\u2019 Investment Summit. Ar\u012b Euronews Business aptauj\u0101tie eksperti piekr\u012bt, ka gaid\u0101ma noz\u012bm\u012bga tirgus korekcija. Visslikt\u0101kaj\u0101 scen\u0101rij\u0101 tirgus krachs var\u0113tu izdz\u0113st triljoniem dol\u0101ru v\u0113rt\u012bbu no finan\u0161u tirgiem. P\u0113c BCA Research galven\u0101 Eiropas strat\u0113\u0123a Matj\u0113 Savar\u012b teikt\u0101, ja lielie tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi, tostarp Nvidia un Alphabet, zaud\u0113tu pat tikai 20% no savas akciju v\u0113rt\u012bbas, tas rad\u012btu tirgus izt\u012br\u012b\u0161anos 4,4 triljonu dol\u0101ru apm\u0113r\u0101. \u201cJa tie zaud\u0113tu 50%, tad runa b\u016btu par 11 triljonu dol\u0101ru \u201cnogriezni\u201d,\u201d vi\u0146\u0161 piebilda.<\/p>\n
ASV akciju tirgus un MI entuziasms<\/p>\n
ASV akciju tirgus \u0161ogad ir p\u0101rsniedzis visas cer\u012bbas. S&P 500 indekss p\u0113d\u0113jo 12 m\u0113ne\u0161u laik\u0101 ir pieaudzis gandr\u012bz par 20%, neskatoties uz \u0123eopolitisko spriedzi un glob\u0101lo tirdzniec\u012bbas nenoteikt\u012bbu, ko izrais\u012bjusi Va\u0161ingtonas tarifu politika. Strauj\u0101kais pieaugums v\u0113rojams tie\u0161i tehnolo\u0123iju sektor\u0101, ko veicina optimisms par n\u0101kotnes MI ien\u0101kumiem. Kam\u0113r lielie tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi turpina invest\u0113t miljardus MI un infrastrukt\u016bras att\u012bst\u012bb\u0101, pieaug ba\u017eas par ASV ekonomikas l\u0113n\u0101ku att\u012bst\u012bbu, ko pasliktina ierobe\u017eot\u0101 inform\u0101cija vald\u012bbas sl\u0113g\u0161anas d\u0113\u013c. Kad par\u0101d\u012bsies jauni dati, tie var\u0113tu satricin\u0101t investorus.<\/p>\n
Nvidia \u2013 MI revol\u016bcijas centrs un milzu v\u0113rt\u0113jums<\/p>\n
MI entuziasms visspilgt\u0101k izpau\u017eas Nvidia \u0101rk\u0101rt\u0113jos akciju pieaugumos un straujaj\u0101 v\u0113rt\u0113jum\u0101. Komp\u0101nija ir centr\u0101l\u0101 fig\u016bra tehnolo\u0123iju revol\u016bcij\u0101, jo t\u0101s grafiskie procesori (GPU) ir neaizst\u0101jami MI apr\u0113\u0137iniem. Kop\u0161 2020. gada s\u0101kuma Nvidia akciju cenas ir pieaugu\u0161as par vair\u0101k nek\u0101 3000%, nesen k\u013c\u016bstot par pasaul\u0113 v\u0113rt\u012bg\u0101ko publisko uz\u0146\u0113mumu. Tikai no j\u016blija l\u012bdz oktobrim t\u0101s tirgus kapitaliz\u0101cija pieauga par 1 triljonu dol\u0101ru \u2013 tas ir aptuveni \u0160veices gada IKP apm\u0113r\u0101. T\u0101s akcijas tiek kot\u0113tas apm\u0113ram 45 reizes virs prognoz\u0113tajiem \u0161\u012b finan\u0161u gada ien\u0101kumiem.<\/p>\n
Vai tas ir burbulis? Anal\u012bti\u0137u viedok\u013ci<\/p>\n
Hargreaves Lansdown akciju p\u0113t\u012bjumu noda\u013cas vad\u012bt\u0101js Derens Naitons nor\u0101da: \u201cLiela da\u013ca \u0161\u012bs izaugsmes balst\u0101s uz re\u0101lu finansi\u0101lu progresu, un, neskatoties uz milz\u012bgo nomin\u0101lo v\u0113rt\u012bbas pieaugumu, relat\u012bvais v\u0113rt\u0113jums ne\u0161\u0137iet p\u0101rm\u0113r\u012bgs.\u201d Anal\u012bti\u0137i debates, vai pa\u0161reiz\u0113jais tirgus atg\u0101dina 2000. gada \u201cdot-com\u201d burbuli. Naitons piebilst, ka daudzi tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi, kas toreiz cieta neveiksmi, nekad nesasniedza rentabilit\u0101ti, at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bb\u0101 no m\u016bsdienu liel\u0101kajiem uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, kas g\u016bst sp\u0113c\u012bgus ie\u0146\u0113mumus un pe\u013c\u0146u ar stabilu piepras\u012bjumu p\u0113c saviem produktiem.<\/p>\n
Quilter Cheviot glob\u0101l\u0101s tehnolo\u0123iju p\u0113t\u012bjumu vad\u012bt\u0101js Bens Baringers piebilst: \u201cT\u0101 k\u0101 vald\u012bbas invest\u0113 iev\u0113rojamus l\u012bdzek\u013cus MI infrastrukt\u016br\u0101 un ir sagaid\u0101mi procentu likmju samazin\u0101jumi, sektoram ir stabilas pamatties\u012bbas. Tas ir d\u0101rgs tirgus, bet ne oblig\u0101ti kliedzo\u0161s burbulis. Momenta saglab\u0101\u0161ana ir gr\u016bta, un ne katrs uz\u0146\u0113mums uzplauks.\u201d<\/p>\n
BCA Research uzskata, ka veidojas burbulis, ta\u010du tas nepl\u012bs\u012bs nekav\u0113joties. Galvenais Eiropas strat\u0113\u0123is Matj\u0113 Savar\u012b skaidro, ka \u0161\u0101di burbu\u013ci v\u0113sturiski sasniedz virsotni, kad uz\u0146\u0113mumi s\u0101k pa\u013cauties uz \u0101r\u0113jo finans\u0113jumu lieliem projektiem. Invest\u012bcijas akt\u012bvos n\u0101kotnes izaugsmei jeb kapit\u0101lieguld\u012bjumi k\u0101 da\u013ca no darb\u012bbas naudas pl\u016bsmas hiperskal\u0113t\u0101jiem ir pieaugu\u0161i no 35% l\u012bdz 70%. Hiperskal\u0113t\u0101ji ir tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi, piem\u0113ram, Microsoft, Google un Meta, kas p\u0101rvalda milz\u012bgus m\u0101ko\u0146dato\u0161anas t\u012bklus. \u201cDarb\u012bbas pe\u013c\u0146as da\u013ca, visticam\u0101k, p\u0101rsniegs 100%, pirms sasniegsim virsotni,\u201d piebilda Savar\u012b. Tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka vi\u0146i dr\u012bzum\u0101 var\u0113tu invest\u0113t vair\u0101k, nek\u0101 pelna no darb\u012bbas.<\/p>\n
Nesenie piem\u0113ri, kad lielie tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi mekl\u0113 \u0101r\u0113ju finans\u0113jumu \u0161\u0101diem so\u013ciem, ietver Meta projektu Hyperion ar Blue Owl Capital un Alphabet tr\u012bs miljardu eiro oblig\u0101ciju emisiju MI un m\u0101ko\u0146dato\u0161anas papla\u0161in\u0101\u0161anai. Kam\u0113r MI invest\u012bciju pieaugums ir gr\u016bti noturams, Quilter’s Barringer Euronews sac\u012bja: \u201cJa kapit\u0101lieguld\u012bjumi s\u0101ks samazin\u0101ties v\u0113l\u0101k \u0161ogad, tirgi var s\u0101kt satraukties.\u201d Citi faktori, kam piev\u0113rst uzman\u012bbu, ietver ieguld\u012bt\u0101 kapit\u0101la atdevi un pieaugo\u0161\u0101s procentu likmes un infl\u0101cijas spiediens, kas var\u0113tu signaliz\u0113t par augst\u0101k\u0101m kapit\u0101la izmaks\u0101m un burbu\u013ca beigu tuvo\u0161anos. \u201cBet m\u0113s v\u0113l neesam tur,\u201d teica Savar\u012b.<\/p>\n
Papildu ba\u017eas un k\u0101 sevi pasarg\u0101t<\/p>\n
Pat ja tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumi izmanto MI vilni, piep\u016bst\u0101s cer\u012bbas uz n\u0101kotnes ien\u0101kumiem var izr\u0101d\u012bties gr\u016bti piepild\u0101mas. \u201cSkept\u0137u galven\u0101 probl\u0113ma var\u0113tu neb\u016bt ar MI potenci\u0101lu pa\u0161u par sevi, bet gan ar v\u0113rt\u0113jumiem, ko investori maks\u0101 par \u0161o potenci\u0101lu, un \u0101trumu, k\u0101d\u0101 vi\u0146i sagaida t\u0101 materializ\u0113\u0161anos,\u201d sac\u012bja AJ Bell invest\u012bciju direktors Rass Moulds.<\/p>\n
Nesens BCA zi\u0146ojums atspogu\u013co pieaugo\u0161os iemeslus ap\u0161aub\u012bt MI narrat\u012bvu, ta\u010du tehnolo\u0123ija \u201cjoproj\u0101m ir sp\u0113c\u012bgs sp\u0113ks\u201d, nor\u0101d\u012bja grupa. Ja investoru optimismam s\u0101ks mazin\u0101ties, \u201cstrauja korekcija tehnolo\u0123iju sektor\u0101 joproj\u0101m var\u0113tu rad\u012bt vi\u013c\u0146o\u0161anos pla\u0161\u0101kos tirgos, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 sektora domin\u0113jo\u0161o svaru glob\u0101lajos indeksos,\u201d piebilda Barringer. Vi\u0146\u0161 nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka citi re\u0123ioni un akt\u012bvu klases, piem\u0113ram, oblig\u0101cijas un preces, b\u016btu maz\u0101k tie\u0161i ietekm\u0113tas un var\u0113tu nodro\u0161in\u0101t svar\u012bgu l\u012bdzsvaru lejupsl\u012bdes laik\u0101.<\/p>\n
P\u0113c Hargreaves Lansdown galven\u0101s invest\u012bciju strat\u0113\u0123es Emmas Volas teikt\u0101: \u201cInvestoriem vajadz\u0113tu izmantot \u0161o iesp\u0113ju, lai nostiprin\u0101tu iespaid\u012bgus ieguvumus un diversific\u0113tu savus portfe\u013cus, iek\u013caujot da\u017e\u0101dus sektorus, \u0123eogr\u0101fisk\u0101s vietas un akt\u012bvu klases \u2013 pievienojot portfe\u013ciem notur\u012bbu. Zelta cenas pieaugums atkal kliedz br\u012bdin\u0101jumu \u2013 tas ir sign\u0101ls, ka \u0161\u012b izaugsme neilgs.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tirgus drudzis: Vai m\u0113s saskaramies ar burbuli vai ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bgu izaugsmi? P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 finan\u0161u tirgos v\u0113rojama rekordaugsta izaugsme, ta\u010du…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[5090,77,2716,76,5022,790,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,87],"class_list":{"0":"post-41398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-akciju-tirgus","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-burbulis","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-finansu-tirgus","13":"tag-investicijas","14":"tag-latvia","15":"tag-latvian","16":"tag-latviesu","17":"tag-latviesu-valoda","18":"tag-latviesuvaloda","19":"tag-latvija","20":"tag-lv","21":"tag-maksligais-intelekts"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115501710895229867","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}