Lai main\u012btu diktatora Vladimira Putina apr\u0113\u0137inus, Rietumiem j\u0101samazina Krievijas energoresursu apjoms pasaules tirg\u016b, ceturtdien Finan\u0161u izl\u016bko\u0161anas dienesta (FID) r\u012bkotaj\u0101 konferenc\u0113 R\u012bg\u0101 uzsv\u0113ra Kijivas Ekonomikas skolas Makroekonomisko p\u0113t\u012bjumu un strat\u0113\u0123ijas noda\u013cas vad\u012bt\u0101js Bend\u017eamins Hilgenstoks.<\/p>\n
Konferences “Sarg\u0101jot robe\u017eu: sankcijas, eksporta kontrole un uz\u0146\u0113mumu atbild\u012bba” diskusij\u0101 piedal\u012bj\u0101s ar\u012b Latvijas Bankas vec\u0101kais ekonomists Mat\u012bss Miro\u0161\u0146ikovs. Vi\u0146\u0161 nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka, neskatoties uz sankcij\u0101m, Krievijas ekonomika “turas virs \u016bdens”, tom\u0113r tas galvenok\u0101rt ir milit\u0101ro t\u0113ri\u0146u un valsts izdevumu palielin\u0101\u0161anas d\u0113\u013c.<\/p>\n
P\u0113c Miro\u0161\u0146ikova paust\u0101, Krievijas ekonomikas dati nav uzticami, jo valsts p\u0101rtraukusi public\u0113t detaliz\u0113tu statistiku, tai skait\u0101 demogr\u0101fijas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jus. Vi\u0146apr\u0101t, kad inform\u0101cija tiek sl\u0113pta, tas parasti noz\u012bm\u0113, ka ir probl\u0113mas, kuras cen\u0161as nosl\u0113pt.<\/p>\n
Miro\u0161\u0146ikovs uzsv\u0113ra, ka infl\u0101cija Krievij\u0101 joproj\u0101m ir augsta – aptuveni 8-10%, bet Krievijas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas b\u0101zes likme p\u0101rsniedz 16%. Vi\u0146\u0161 kl\u0101st\u012bja, ka monet\u0101r\u0101 politika vairs nesp\u0113j savald\u012bt infl\u0101ciju, jo vald\u012bba turpina ekspans\u012bvu fisk\u0101lo politiku un ar kara t\u0113ri\u0146iem tikai “pielej e\u013c\u013cu ugunij”. Latvijas Bankas vec\u0101kais ekonomists ar\u012b atz\u012bm\u0113ja, ka bezdarbs ir kritiski zems, un tas nor\u0101da uz darbasp\u0113ka tr\u016bkumu un ekonomikas p\u0101rkar\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
P\u0113c Miro\u0161\u0146ikova dom\u0101m, Krievijas ekonomika patlaban ir izveidojusi “milit\u0101ro burbuli”. Vi\u0146\u0161 vilka paral\u0113les ar V\u0101ciju Otr\u0101 pasaules kara laik\u0101, kad t\u0101s ekonomika bija p\u0101rmilitariz\u0113ta – lai uztur\u0113tu to pie dz\u012bv\u012bbas, karam bija j\u0101turpin\u0101s.<\/p>\n
Savuk\u0101rt Hilgenstoks uzsv\u0113ra, ka sankcijas ir b\u016btiski ietekm\u0113ju\u0161as Krievijas sp\u0113ju finans\u0113t karu, ta\u010du to pilna iedarb\u012bba v\u0113l nav pan\u0101kta. Vi\u0146a ieskat\u0101 sankcijas Krievijai ir s\u0101p\u012bgas, t\u0101p\u0113c t\u0101s ir j\u0101turpina piem\u0113rot, lai liegtu Maskavai finan\u0161u l\u012bdzek\u013cus karadarb\u012bbas uztur\u0113\u0161anai. Kijivas Ekonomikas skolas Makroekonomisko p\u0113t\u012bjumu un strat\u0113\u0123ijas noda\u013cas vad\u012bt\u0101ja ieskat\u0101 v\u0113l ir daudz dar\u0101m\u0101, \u012bpa\u0161i energoresursu jom\u0101.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 atzina, ka pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 “cenu griestu” sist\u0113ma nav darbojusies k\u0101 iecer\u0113ts. Hilgenstoks skaidroja, ka 2024. gad\u0101 Krievijas naftas un g\u0101zes eksports sasniedza 235 miljardus ASV dol\u0101ru – tas bija t\u0101ds pats l\u012bmenis, k\u0101ds pirms kara. Vi\u0146\u0161 secin\u0101ja, ka “cenu griesti” nav samazin\u0101ju\u0161i eksporta ien\u0101kumus.<\/p>\n
“Ja ar stingr\u0101ku izpildi izdotos papla\u0161in\u0101t cenu atlaidi no 10 l\u012bdz 20 dol\u0101riem par barelu, Krievijai b\u016btu j\u0101p\u0101rdod nafta par aptuveni 40 dol\u0101riem, un tas b\u016btu \u013coti riskants l\u012bmenis,” nor\u0101d\u012bja Hilgenstoks.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146\u0161 kl\u0101st\u012bja, ka jaun\u0101kaj\u0101 sankciju pakotn\u0113 ieviests meh\u0101nisms, kas \u013cauj iek\u013caut tre\u0161o valstu ostas sarakst\u0101, ja t\u0101s iesaist\u0101s sankciju apie\u0161an\u0101. Ekonomista ieskat\u0101, ir j\u0101s\u0101k dialogs, piem\u0113ram, ar Indijas ost\u0101m par to, ko noz\u012bm\u0113 piek\u013cuve Eiropas tirgum, ja t\u0101s turpin\u0101s uz\u0146emt Eiropas Savien\u012bb\u0101 (ES) sankcij\u0101m pak\u013cautus ku\u0123us. Hilgenstoks uzsv\u0113ra, ka ES j\u0101k\u013c\u016bst akt\u012bv\u0101kai un j\u0101izmanto eso\u0161ie instrumenti, lai “p\u0101rliecino\u0161i par\u0101d\u012btu savu ekonomisko sp\u0113ku \u0101rpus robe\u017e\u0101m un pal\u012bdz\u0113tu izbeigt Krievijas agresijas karu pret Ukrainu”.<\/p>\n
Diskusij\u0101 uzman\u012bba bija piev\u0113rsta ar\u012b Rietumu uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, kas joproj\u0101m turpina darbu Krievij\u0101. P\u0113c Hilgenstoka dom\u0101m, uz\u0146\u0113mumi cer, ka p\u0113c kara viss atgriez\u012bsies “norm\u0101l\u0101” st\u0101vokl\u012b, ta\u010du tie ir nokav\u0113ju\u0161i savu br\u012bdi – liel\u0101k\u0101 da\u013ca vairs nevar iziet no tirgus, un vi\u0146u akt\u012bvi tiks at\u0146emti, kad re\u017e\u012bms to v\u0113l\u0113sies.<\/p>\n
Vi\u0146apr\u0101t, tiek veidots mald\u012bgs narat\u012bvs, ka sankcijas tiks atceltas uzreiz p\u0113c Krievijas sp\u0113ku izve\u0161anas no Ukrainas un repar\u0101ciju samaksas. Kijivas Ekonomikas skolas Makroekonomisko p\u0113t\u012bjumu un strat\u0113\u0123ijas noda\u013cas vad\u012bt\u0101js sac\u012bja, ka \u0161\u0101di argumenti rada cer\u012bbu uz atgrie\u0161anos “pie biznesa k\u0101 ierasts”, pat ja nosac\u012bjumi tam nav izpild\u012bti.<\/p>\n
Atbildot uz jaut\u0101jumu par Krievijas bud\u017eeta defic\u012btu, Hilgenstoks nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka tas jau divreiz ir p\u0101rskat\u012bts un t\u0101 izpilde ir apdraud\u0113ta. Vi\u0146\u0161 skaidroja, ka Krievijai paliku\u0161i tikai divi finan\u0161u avoti – nacion\u0101lais labkl\u0101j\u012bbas fonds un iek\u0161\u0113jais aiz\u0146\u0113mums no valsts bank\u0101m, ta\u010du tas rada infl\u0101cijas spiedienu un ierobe\u017eo kredit\u0113\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
Savuk\u0101rt Miro\u0161\u0146ikovs piebilda, ka Krievijas sabiedr\u012bba “sp\u0113j ilgsto\u0161i paciest gr\u016bt\u012bbas”, un re\u017e\u012bms to izmanto. Vi\u0146\u0161 akcent\u0113ja, ka cilv\u0113ki Krievij\u0101 ir pieradu\u0161i dz\u012bvot slikt\u0101kos apst\u0101k\u013cos, un re\u017e\u012bmu tas neuztrauc. Latvijas Bankas vec\u0101k\u0101 ekonomista ieskat\u0101 tas \u013caus karu turpin\u0101t v\u0113l ilgi, l\u012bdz sabrukums pien\u0101ks p\u0113k\u0161\u0146i, k\u0101 tas bija ar PSRS.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Lai main\u012btu diktatora Vladimira Putina apr\u0113\u0137inus, Rietumiem j\u0101samazina Krievijas energoresursu apjoms pasaules tirg\u016b, ceturtdien Finan\u0161u izl\u016bko\u0161anas dienesta (FID)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":42219,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,869,77,870,28,29,867,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-42218","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-biznesa-zinas","11":"tag-bizness","12":"tag-bizness-latvija","13":"tag-breaking-news","14":"tag-breakingnews","15":"tag-dienas-zinas","16":"tag-featured-news","17":"tag-featurednews","18":"tag-headlines","19":"tag-latest-news","20":"tag-latestnews","21":"tag-latvia","22":"tag-latvian","23":"tag-latviesu","24":"tag-latviesu-valoda","25":"tag-latviesuvaloda","26":"tag-latvija","27":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","28":"tag-latvijas-zinas","29":"tag-lv","30":"tag-news","31":"tag-popularakas-zinas","32":"tag-popularakaszinas","33":"tag-top-stories","34":"tag-topstories","35":"tag-world","36":"tag-world-news","37":"tag-worldnews","38":"tag-zinas","39":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42218"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42218\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}