Latvijas ekonomikai \u0161is gads bijis viens no lab\u0101kajiem p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 \u2013 p\u0113c vair\u0101ku gadu stagn\u0101cijas t\u0101 atkal s\u0101kusi augt. Izaugsmi veicin\u0101ju\u0161i vair\u0101ki faktori, kas stiprin\u0101ju\u0161i gan uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113jdarb\u012bbu, gan iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju pat\u0113ri\u0146u.<\/p>\n
Neraugoties uz to, ka infl\u0101cija joproj\u0101m ir augst\u0101ka nek\u0101 vid\u0113ji Eirop\u0101, algu k\u0101pums Latvij\u0101 bijis strauj\u0101ks, un iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju pirktsp\u0113ja ir uzlabojusies. Tom\u0113r l\u012bdz\u0101s pozit\u012bvaj\u0101m tendenc\u0113m saglab\u0101jas ar\u012b izaicin\u0101jumi, kas var ietekm\u0113t turpm\u0101ko att\u012bst\u012bbas tempu.<\/p>\n
Ekonomikas izaugsme p\u0113c ilgsto\u0161as stagn\u0101cijas <\/p>\n
P\u0113c ilgsto\u0161as lejupsl\u012bdes un stagn\u0101cijas, kas s\u0101k\u0101s 2021. gad\u0101, \u0161\u012b gada pirmajos divos ce-turk\u0161\u0146os Latvijas ekonomika s\u0101ka uzr\u0101d\u012bt izaugsmi. Analiz\u0113jot datus pa sektoriem, redzams, ka pieaugumu kop\u0161 2024. gada s\u0101kuma pret \u0161\u012b gada vidu uzr\u0101d\u012bju\u0161i gandr\u012bz visi sektori. Atguvusies ra\u017eo\u0161ana un to liel\u0101 m\u0113r\u0101 ietekm\u0113jis gan eksporta, gan viet\u0113j\u0101 tirgus piepras\u012bjums. Iz-augsme v\u0113rojama ar\u012b finan\u0161u un citu pakalpojumu sektoros, k\u0101 ar\u012b vien\u0101 no svar\u012bg\u0101kaj\u0101m Latvijas nozar\u0113m \u2013 me\u017esaimniec\u012bb\u0101. Turpret\u012b iev\u0113rojams kritums bijis ieguves r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101 un karjeru izstr\u0101d\u0113, nedaudz ar\u012b nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu nozar\u0113, maz\u0101k tirdzniec\u012bb\u0101, transport\u0101 un t\u016brism\u0101.<\/p>\n
Ekonomikas atvese\u013co\u0161anos veicin\u0101ja \u010detri b\u016btiski faktori. Pirmk\u0101rt, pat\u0113ri\u0146a atjauno\u0161an\u0101s viet\u0113j\u0101 tirg\u016b \u2013 iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji s\u0101ka vair\u0101k t\u0113r\u0113t mazumtirdzniec\u012bbai un tas rad\u012bja piepras\u012bjumu p\u0101rtikas un apstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101, kas s\u0101ka ra\u017eot vair\u0101k.<\/p>\n
Otrk\u0101rt, pre\u010du un pakalpojumu eksporta pieaugums, ko veicin\u0101ja Trampa tarifu kari, kad ASV import\u0113t\u0101ji steidza piepild\u012bt noliktavas ar Eirop\u0101 un cit\u0101s valst\u012bs ra\u017eot\u0101m prec\u0113m. Baltijas, tai skait\u0101 Latvijas, apstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bbas ra\u017eot\u0101ji piedal\u0101s Eiropas pieg\u0101des \u0137\u0113d\u0113s, un tas deva pienesumu ar\u012b m\u016bsu ekonomikai. Tiesa, paredzams, ka turpm\u0101kajos m\u0113ne\u0161os ra\u017eo\u0161anas pie-augums var\u0113tu nedaudz sabremz\u0113ties, jo pas\u016bt\u012bjums eksporta tirgos vairs nav tik liels. Lai gan \u0161\u012b tendence visvair\u0101k skars Lietuvu, kur eksporta \u012bpatsvars ekonomik\u0101 ir liel\u0101ks nek\u0101 Latvij\u0101 un Igaunij\u0101 kop\u0101, t\u0101s ietekmi izjut\u012bs ar\u012b m\u016bsu ra\u017eot\u0101ji. Ja iek\u0161\u0113jais pat\u0113ri\u0146\u0161 sp\u0113s kompens\u0113t eksporta kritumu, kop\u0113j\u0101 ietekme uz ekonomiku b\u016bs ierobe\u017eota.<\/p>\n
Tre\u0161k\u0101rt, procentu likmes, ko Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101 banka (ECB) pag\u0101ju\u0161aj\u0101 gad\u0101 s\u0101ka un turpin\u0101ja samazin\u0101t ar\u012b \u0161ogad. Oktobr\u012b jau tre\u0161aj\u0101 s\u0113d\u0113 p\u0113c k\u0101rtas depoz\u012bta likme tika atst\u0101sta ne-main\u012bga \u2013 2,0 % l\u012bmen\u012b un, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 m\u0113reno eirozonas izaugsmi, kas v\u0113rojama ar\u012b tre\u0161\u0101 ceturk\u0161\u0146a datos, paredzams, ka \u0161ie 2,0 % visticam\u0101k tiks saglab\u0101ti ar\u012b n\u0101kamaj\u0101s s\u0113d\u0113s. Lai gan past\u0101v iesp\u0113ja nelielam likmes samazin\u0101jumam par 0,25 % n\u0101kamgad, ja eirozonas ekonomika s\u0101ks izr\u0101d\u012bt v\u0101juma paz\u012bmes. Tas pozit\u012bvi ietekm\u0113 gan iedz\u012bvot\u0101jus, gan uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113jus ar kred\u012btsaist\u012bb\u0101m, jo Latvij\u0101 vair\u0101k nek\u0101 90 % kred\u012btu ir ar main\u012bgu procentu likmi. \u0160ie aizdevumi ir piesaist\u012bti Euribor, t\u0101p\u0113c jebkuras izmai\u0146as likm\u0113 \u0101tri atspogu\u013cojas aiz\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju maks\u0101jumos \u2013 negat\u012bvi, kad likme k\u0101pj, un pozit\u012bvi, kad t\u0101 samazin\u0101s. L\u012bdz ar to \u0161ogad varam run\u0101t ar\u012b par pozit\u012bv\u0101m tendenc\u0113m kredit\u0113\u0161anas tirg\u016b \u2013 kop\u0161 pag\u0101ju\u0161\u0101 gada beig\u0101m iev\u0113rojami pieaudzis no jauna izsniegto kred\u012btu skaits. S\u0101k augt ar\u012b kop\u0113jais kred\u012btu portfelis, tai skait\u0101 ar\u012b hipotek\u0101ro kred\u012btu portfelis. M\u0101jok\u013cu kredit\u0113\u0161anas un ieg\u0101des tirgus atdz\u012bvo\u0161an\u0101s rad\u012bs pozit\u012bvu ietekmi uz b\u016bvniec\u012bbas sektoru, kur p\u0113c ilgsto\u0161\u0101ka stagn\u0101cijas perioda, beidzot v\u0113rojama izaugsme. \u0112ku b\u016bvniec\u012bba \u0161\u012b gada 3. ceturksn\u012b pieaugusi par 5 %, sal\u012bdzinot ar 2024. gada 3. ceturksni, bet viss b\u016bvniec\u012bbas apjoms \u0161\u012b gada devi\u0146os m\u0113ne\u0161os pieaudzis par 8,9 %, sal\u012bdzinot ar p\u0113rn\u0101 gada attiec\u012bgo periodu. Atjaunojoties b\u016bvniec\u012bbas nozarei un pieaugot b\u016bvniec\u012bbas apjo-miem, ieg\u016bs ar\u012b izstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bba, piem\u0113ram, smilts, grants, cementa u.c. b\u016bvmateri\u0101lu ra\u017eo\u0161ana \u2013 \u0161iem apjomiem ar\u012b vajadz\u0113tu pieaugt.<\/p>\n
Ar\u012b izsniegtie uz\u0146\u0113mumu kred\u012bti kop\u0161 pag\u0101ju\u0161\u0101 gada beig\u0101m piedz\u012bvo strauju l\u0113cienu, un tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka uz\u0146\u0113mumi ir gatavi aiz\u0146emties un ieguld\u012bt att\u012bst\u012bb\u0101. Jauna nauda, kas non\u0101k eko-nomik\u0101, pateicoties kredit\u0113\u0161anai, rada pozit\u012bvu ietekmi kop\u0113jai ekonomikai.<\/p>\n
V\u0113l viens izaugsmi veicino\u0161s faktors ir sekm\u012bg\u0101ka Eiropas Savien\u012bbas (ES) fondu apguve, kas iepriek\u0161\u0113jos gados norit\u0113ja l\u0113n\u0101k, nek\u0101 b\u016btu v\u0113lams. \u0160ogad \u0161is process ir iev\u0113rojami pa\u0101trin\u0101jies \u2013 paredz\u0113ts, ka gada laik\u0101 tiks apg\u016bti 1,4 miljardi eiro, un jau devi\u0146u m\u0113ne\u0161u laik\u0101 bija iz-mantots teju miljards. T\u0101 k\u0101 Latvijai \u0161o l\u012bdzek\u013cu izmanto\u0161anai atlicis vien vair\u0101k k\u0101 gads, b\u016btiski saglab\u0101t ies\u0101kto tempu, kas sniegs papildu impulsu ekonomikas izaugsmei.<\/p>\n
Infl\u0101cija augst\u0101ka nek\u0101 vid\u0113ji eirozon\u0101, bet pirktsp\u0113ja uzlabojusies<\/p>\n
Infl\u0101cija Baltijas valst\u012bs \u0161ogad ir bijusi liel\u0101ka nek\u0101 vid\u0113ji eirozon\u0101, kur t\u0101 sasniedz aptuveni2 %. Latvij\u0101 un Lietuv\u0101 t\u0101 ir nedaudz virs 4 %, bet Igaunij\u0101 \u2013 5 %. Papildu spiedienu uz infl\u0101ci-ju Latvij\u0101, sal\u012bdzinot ar 2024. gadu, rad\u012bjis p\u0101rtikas un energoresursu cenu k\u0101pums.<\/p>\n
Lai gan mazumtirdzniec\u012bbas cenas ir k\u0101pu\u0161as, liel\u0101kajai da\u013cai iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju pirktsp\u0113ja ir uzlabo-jusies. To veicin\u0101jis algu k\u0101pums \u2013 bruto atalgojums palielin\u0101jies par aptuveni 8 %, bet neto izteiksm\u0113 re\u0101lais ien\u0101kumu pieaugums sasniedzis 10 % sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar pag\u0101ju\u0161o gadu. \u0160o izaugsmi b\u016btiski veicin\u0101ju\u0161as darbasp\u0113ka nodok\u013cu izmai\u0146as, kas st\u0101j\u0101s sp\u0113k\u0101 \u0161\u0101 gada 1. janv\u0101r\u012b.<\/p>\n
Sal\u012bdzinot ar pag\u0101ju\u0161o gadu, iev\u0113rojami uzlabojies ar\u012b pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju noska\u0146ojums. Gada s\u0101kum\u0101 \u0161aj\u0101 r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101j\u0101 bija neliels kritums \u0123eopolitisk\u0101s nenoteikt\u012bbas d\u0113\u013c, bet, s\u0101kot ar otro ceturksni, noska\u0146ojums atkal ir uzlabojies un paredzams, ka iek\u0161\u0113jais pat\u0113ri\u0146\u0161 turpin\u0101s augt. To redzam ar\u012b septembra datos \u2013 mazumtirdzniec\u012bbas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji pieauga par 2,6 %.<\/p>\n
Dati liecina, ka iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji var\u0113tu t\u0113r\u0113t v\u0113l vair\u0101k, t\u0101d\u0113j\u0101di veicinot ekonomikas izaugsmi, jo strauji pieaug l\u012bdzek\u013cu atlikumi banku kontos. Tas atkl\u0101j pretrunu starp iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju finan\u0161u potenci\u0101lu un re\u0101lo r\u012bc\u012bbu. Cilv\u0113ki ir \u013coti piesardz\u012bgi, net\u0113r\u0113 naudu un patur to savos kar\u0161u vai nor\u0113\u0137inu kontos, neradot pienesumu ekonomikai, un nauda nevairo naudu.<\/p>\n
Darba roku tr\u016bkums un algu k\u0101pums maina Baltijas konkur\u0113tsp\u0113ju<\/p>\n
Viens no liel\u0101kajiem izaicin\u0101jumiem Latvijas ekonomikai ir darba tirgus \u2013 tas joproj\u0101m ir sa-springt\u0101 situ\u0101cij\u0101, jo tr\u016bkst darbinieku un demogr\u0101fijas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji nesola uzlabojumus \u2013 nav sagaid\u0101ma jaun\u0101s paaudzes ien\u0101k\u0161ana darba tirg\u016b, kas masveid\u0101 var\u0113tu uzlabot darbasp\u0113ka pied\u0101v\u0101jumu. Darbinieku piepras\u012bjums saglab\u0101jas \u013coti liels un l\u012bdz ar to k\u0101pj ar\u012b algas. Algu pieauguma temps Latvij\u0101 p\u0101rsniedz iek\u0161zemes kopprodukta (IKP) izaugsmi, kas nor\u0101da uz produktivit\u0101tes samazin\u0101\u0161anos \u2013 darba izmaksas pieaug strauj\u0101k nek\u0101 rad\u012bt\u0101 pievienot\u0101 v\u0113rt\u012bba.<\/p>\n
Kopum\u0101 Baltijas re\u0123ionam pamaz\u0101m z\u016bd l\u0113t\u0101 darbasp\u0113ka priek\u0161roc\u012bba pret cit\u0101m ES valst\u012bm, un tas nedaudz bremz\u0113 jaunu \u0101rvalstu invest\u012bciju iepl\u016b\u0161anu. Tiesa, j\u0101piebilst, ka absol\u016btos skait\u013cos Baltijas re\u0123iona un eirozonas darba algu starp\u012bba v\u0113l ir diezgan liela \u2013 joproj\u0101m esam re\u0123ions ar vien\u0101m no zem\u0101kaj\u0101m alg\u0101m. Tom\u0113r redzam, ka jaunu \u0101rvalstu invest\u012bciju aktivit\u0101te saglab\u0101jas pietiekami lab\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b, apliecinot investoru tic\u012bbu re\u0123ionam, neraugoties uz paaug-stin\u0101to \u0123eopolitisk\u0101 riska l\u012bmeni.<\/p>\n
Latvijas ekonomika eirozonas kontekst\u0101 <\/p>\n
Latvijas ekonomika pieaug nedaudz strauj\u0101k nek\u0101 vid\u0113ji eirozon\u0101, kur labi izskat\u0101s Francija un Sp\u0101nija, bet citas valstis stagn\u0113, tostarp V\u0101cija, kur izaugsme \u0161aj\u0101 gad\u0101 tiek prognoz\u0113ta tuvu nullei. Latvijai \u0161ogad tiek prognoz\u0113ts aptuveni 1,4 \u2013 1,5 % IKP pieaugums, bet n\u0101kamgad \u2013 ap 2 %. Lietuvas ekonomikai tiek l\u0113sta strauj\u0101ka izaugsme \u2013 \u0161ogad ap 3,5 % un n\u0101kamaj\u0101 gad\u0101 aptuveni 2,5 %. Savuk\u0101rt Igaunijas IKP pieauguma prognozes ir l\u012bdz\u012bgas k\u0101 Latvij\u0101 \u2013 ap 1,5 % \u0161ogad un 2,0 % l\u012bdz 2,3 % n\u0101kamgad.<\/p>\n
Ekonomikas izaugsmi var kav\u0113t nep\u0101rdom\u0101ta nodok\u013cu politika. Piem\u0113ram, Igaunij\u0101 \u0161ogad pie\u0146emtais l\u0113mums palielin\u0101t pievienot\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas nodokli jau bremz\u0113 iek\u0161\u0113jo pat\u0113ri\u0146u un kop\u0113jo ekonomikas aktivit\u0101ti. Latvij\u0101, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 n\u0101kamgad gaid\u0101m\u0101s v\u0113l\u0113\u0161anas, maz ticams, ka politi\u0137i uzdro\u0161in\u0101sies \u012bstenot b\u016btiskas nodok\u013cu izmai\u0146as. T\u0101 viet\u0101 vald\u012bba nol\u0113musi aiz\u0146emties, lai nodro\u0161in\u0101tu papildu l\u012bdzek\u013cus aizsardz\u012bbai un cit\u0101m priorit\u0101r\u0101m nozar\u0113m. Tom\u0113r ilgtermi\u0146\u0101 b\u016btu svar\u012bgi r\u016bp\u012bg\u0101k izv\u0113rt\u0113t valsts izdevumus un mekl\u0113t iesp\u0113jas tos optimiz\u0113t, jo p\u0113d\u0113jos gados darba samaksas k\u0101pums publiskaj\u0101 sektor\u0101 bijis strauj\u0101ks nek\u0101 priv\u0101taj\u0101.<\/p>\n
Tas liecina, ka valsts t\u0113ri\u0146i pieaug p\u0101r\u0101k strauji, radot spiedienu uz bud\u017eetu un par\u0101da l\u012bmeni. Nepiecie\u0161ama sabalans\u0113t\u0101ka un ilgtsp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101ka fisk\u0101l\u0101 politika.<\/p>\n
N\u0101kamgad ir svar\u012bgi turpin\u0101t sekm\u012bgi apg\u016bt ES fondu l\u012bdzek\u013cus, lai veicin\u0101tu invest\u012bcijas un nodro\u0161in\u0101tu stabilu kapit\u0101la iepl\u016bdi ekonomik\u0101. Savuk\u0101rt uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113jiem ir labv\u0113l\u012bgs br\u012bdis ieguld\u012bjumiem savas darb\u012bbas att\u012bst\u012bb\u0101 \u2013 procentu likmes joproj\u0101m ir sal\u012bdzino\u0161i zemas un prognoz\u0113jamas, kas mazina nenoteikt\u012bbu par finans\u0113juma izmaks\u0101m. Ir piem\u0113rots laiks aiz\u0146emties un invest\u0113t n\u0101kotnes izaugsm\u0113.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Latvijas ekonomikai \u0161is gads bijis viens no lab\u0101kajiem p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 \u2013 p\u0113c vair\u0101ku gadu stagn\u0101cijas t\u0101 atkal s\u0101kusi…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[869,77,870,76,867,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,21],"class_list":{"0":"post-47787","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-biznesa-zinas","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-bizness-latvija","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-dienas-zinas","13":"tag-latvia","14":"tag-latvian","15":"tag-latviesu","16":"tag-latviesu-valoda","17":"tag-latviesuvaloda","18":"tag-latvija","19":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","20":"tag-latvijas-zinas","21":"tag-lv","22":"tag-zinas"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115541170121408851","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47787\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}