Vai m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta bums dr\u012bz beigsies?<\/p>\n
P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 atkal uzvirmoju\u0161as ba\u017eas par iesp\u0113jamu m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta (MI) tirgus \u201cburbu\u013ca\u201d pl\u012b\u0161anu, liecinot par iev\u0113rojamu kritumu ASV tehnolo\u0123iju akciju tirg\u016b, kas ir j\u016btams kop\u0161 p\u0113rn\u0101 gada apr\u012b\u013ca. \u0160\u0101das sv\u0101rst\u012bbas ir \u012bpa\u0161i noz\u012bm\u012bgas, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 \u0161\u012b sektora fundament\u0101lo lomu glob\u0101laj\u0101s finan\u0161u tirgos. Kop\u0161 OpenAI izstr\u0101d\u0101t\u0101 ChatGPT non\u0101k\u0161anas publik\u0101 2022. gada novembr\u012b, ar MI saist\u012bt\u0101s akcijas ir veidoju\u0161as aptuveni 75% no S&P 500 indeksa atdeves, 80% no pe\u013c\u0146as pieauguma un 90% no kapit\u0101la izdevumu pieauguma. Slavenais \u201cBr\u012bnumainais sept\u012btnieks\u201d \u2013 Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms un Tesla \u2013 tagad kop\u0101 ir v\u0113rt\u012bg\u0101ks nek\u0101 visa \u0136\u012bnas ekonomika. Tikai Nvidia vien p\u0101rsp\u0113j Jap\u0101nas, pasaules tre\u0161\u0101s liel\u0101k\u0101s ekonomikas, v\u0113rt\u012bbu.<\/p>\n
Tom\u0113r, pirms t\u0101l\u0101k\u0101m diskusij\u0101m, ir svar\u012bgi defin\u0113t, kas \u012bsti ir finan\u0161u \u201cburbulis\u201d. Vai pa\u0161reiz\u0113jais MI uzplaukums to patie\u0161\u0101m apliecina? K\u0101das paral\u0113les m\u0113s varam vilkt ar agr\u0101ko \u201cdot-com\u201d drudzi, un, kas v\u0113l svar\u012bg\u0101k, ar ko tas at\u0161\u0137iras? Invest\u012bciju kopiena joproj\u0101m ir dzi\u013ci sa\u0161\u0137elta \u2013 da\u017ei v\u0113rot\u0101ji saskata satrauco\u0161as l\u012bdz\u012bbas ar 2000. gadu \u201cdot-com\u201d kr\u012bzi, savuk\u0101rt citi uzskata, ka pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 MI revol\u016bcija balst\u0101s uz re\u0101liem, transformat\u012bviem ekonomiskiem pamatiem.<\/p>\n
Burbu\u013ca paz\u012bmes vai sp\u0113c\u012bgas fundament\u0101l\u0101s tendences?<\/p>\n
UBS galvenais glob\u0101lais akciju tirgus strat\u0113\u0123is Endrj\u016b G\u0101rtsvits uzskata, ka pa\u0161reiz\u0113jais MI uzplaukums atbilst vis\u0101m klasisk\u0101 \u201cburbu\u013ca\u201d paz\u012bm\u0113m. Vi\u0146\u0161 nor\u0101da uz vair\u0101kiem atpaz\u012bstamiem mode\u013ciem: pirmk\u0101rt, izplat\u012btu domu par \u201cpirkt kritumu\u201d, kad investori steidzas ieg\u0101d\u0101ties akt\u012bvus to cenu krituma br\u012bd\u012b. Otrk\u0101rt, investoru p\u0101rliec\u012bba, ka \u201c\u0161oreiz j\u0101b\u016bt cit\u0101di\u201d tehnolo\u0123iju revol\u016bcijas d\u0113\u013c. Tre\u0161k\u0101rt, pieaugo\u0161a priv\u0101to investoru l\u012bdzdal\u012bba, kop\u0101 ar m\u012bkstajiem monet\u0101rajiem nosac\u012bjumiem un stagn\u0113jo\u0161u pe\u013c\u0146u \u0101rpus liel\u0101kaj\u0101m desmit ASV komp\u0101nij\u0101m. G\u0101rtsvits atz\u012bm\u0113, ka 21% ASV m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bbu jau pieder individu\u0101l\u0101s akcijas, bet kop\u0101 ar invest\u012bciju fondiem \u0161is skaitlis sasniedz 33%. Taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 pe\u013c\u0146as pieaugums liel\u0101 m\u0113r\u0101 ir koncentr\u0113ts tehnolo\u0123iju gigantos. \u201c\u0160obr\u012bd, \u0101rpus desmit liel\u0101kaj\u0101m ASV komp\u0101nij\u0101m, 12 m\u0113ne\u0161u prognoz\u0113t\u0101 pe\u013c\u0146a uz akciju ir gandr\u012bz nulle,\u201d vi\u0146\u0161 saka.<\/p>\n
Tom\u0113r citi br\u012bdina pret p\u0101r\u0101k vienk\u0101r\u0161ot\u0101m sal\u012bdzin\u0101\u0161anas ar \u201cdot-com\u201d \u0113ru. Goldman Sachs akciju tirgus anal\u012bti\u0137is P\u012bters Opens haimers nor\u0101da, ka at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bb\u0101 no spekulat\u012bvajiem uz\u0146\u0113mumiem 2000. gadu s\u0101kum\u0101, m\u016bsdienu MI mil\u017ei demonstr\u0113 re\u0101lu pe\u013c\u0146u. \u201cLai gan MI akciju cenas ir iev\u0113rojami pieaugu\u0161as, tas ir pan\u0101kts ar nep\u0101rtrauktu pe\u013c\u0146as pieaugumu, nevis vienk\u0101r\u0161u spekul\u0101ciju,\u201d apgalvo Opens haimers. Vi\u0146\u0161 uzskata, ka pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101s d\u0101rg\u0101s akciju v\u0113rt\u012bbas nav tik daudz saist\u012btas ar spekulat\u012bvu m\u0101niju, cik ar pla\u0161\u0101kiem makroekonomiskajiem apst\u0101k\u013ciem: zem\u0101m procentu likm\u0113m, augstiem glob\u0101lajiem ietaup\u012bjumiem un garu ekonomisko ciklu, kas veicina riska akt\u012bvus.<\/p>\n
Galven\u0101 at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bba starp pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo MI uzplaukumu un 1990. gadu beigu \u201cdot-com\u201d burbuli ir v\u0113rt\u0113jumos. Goldman Sachs dati liecina, ka vid\u0113jais 24 m\u0113ne\u0161u prognozes cenas\/pe\u013c\u0146as (P\/E) attiec\u012bba \u201cBr\u012bnumainajam sept\u012btniekam\u201d ir 27 reizes. Tas ir gandr\u012bz uz pusi maz\u0101k nek\u0101 vid\u0113jais v\u0113rt\u0113jums liel\u0101kajiem tehnolo\u0123iju uz\u0146\u0113mumiem 2000. gada \u201cburbu\u013ca\u201d laik\u0101, kad t\u0101di uz\u0146\u0113mumi k\u0101 Cisco Systems, IBM, Oracle, Lucent Technologies tirgoj\u0101s ar satrieco\u0161iem P\/E r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem.<\/p>\n
Ne jau MI burbulis, bet gan jaudas ierobe\u017eojumi?<\/p>\n
Vai MI uzplaukums beigsies ar \u201cburbu\u013ca\u201d pl\u012b\u0161anu, joproj\u0101m ir atkl\u0101ts jaut\u0101jums, kas dal\u0101s invest\u012bciju sabiedr\u012bb\u0101. Ta\u010du, ne\u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 spekul\u0101cijas par n\u0101kotnes v\u0113rt\u0113jumiem, par\u0101d\u0101s arvien aktu\u0101l\u0101ka un pragmatisk\u0101ka probl\u0113ma. L\u012bdz \u0161im diskusijas par MI galvenok\u0101rt koncentr\u0113j\u0101s uz piepras\u012bjumu \u2013 vai MI produkti un pakalpojumi atbilst re\u0101l\u0101m klientu vajadz\u012bb\u0101m. Ta\u010du tagad ieg\u016bst popularit\u0101ti jauns skat\u012bjums: piepras\u012bjums nav probl\u0113ma. Tie\u0161i otr\u0101di, tas ir tik sp\u0113c\u012bgs, ka nozare nesp\u0113j nodro\u0161in\u0101t nepiecie\u0161amo apr\u0113\u0137inu jaudu un fizisko infrastrukt\u016bru. <\/p>\n
P\u0113c Jordi Visser, 22V Research MI makro anal\u012bzes noda\u013cas vad\u012bt\u0101ja, teikt\u0101, MI nozare saskaras ar nopietnu pied\u0101v\u0101juma puses izaicin\u0101jumu \u2013 \u012bpa\u0161i ener\u0123ijas un infrastrukt\u016bras zi\u0146\u0101, kas nepiecie\u0161ama t\u0101s izaugsmes atbalstam. \u201eTas nav \u201cdot-com\u201d burbulis, jo piepras\u012bjums iev\u0113rojami p\u0101rsniedz pied\u0101v\u0101jumu,\u201d Visser nesen teica YouTube. Vi\u0146\u0161 uzskata, ka \u201en\u0101kam\u0101 MI invest\u012bciju f\u0101ze neb\u016bs noteikta p\u0113c t\u0101, kur\u0161 sp\u0113j t\u0113r\u0113t visvair\u0101k, bet gan p\u0113c t\u0101, kur\u0161 sp\u0113j izpild\u012bt piepras\u012bjumu ierobe\u017eojumu apst\u0101k\u013cos.\u201d Vi\u0146\u0161 min\u0113ja CoreWeave nesen\u0101s ien\u0101kumu p\u0101rskata k\u0101 pagrieziena punktu. Neskatoties uz milz\u012bgo piepras\u012bjumu, MI-m\u0101ko\u0146dato\u0161anas uz\u0146\u0113muma ie\u0146\u0113mumu atlikums ceturk\u0161\u0146a griezum\u0101 gandr\u012bz dubultoj\u0101s l\u012bdz 55,6 miljardiem ASV dol\u0101ru, tom\u0113r CoreWeave samazin\u0101ja savu 2025. gada kapit\u0101lieguld\u012bjumu prognozi par l\u012bdz pat 40%, atsaucoties uz kav\u0113to ener\u0123\u0113tikas infrastrukt\u016bras pieg\u0101di. Ar\u012b Oracle saskaras ar l\u012bdz\u012bgu probl\u0113mu. Neskatoties uz 455 miljardu ASV dol\u0101ru ie\u0146\u0113mumu atlikumu un noz\u012bm\u012bgiem l\u012bgumiem ar Meta, OpenAI un xAI, uz\u0146\u0113mums \u201cjoproj\u0101m atsak\u0101s no klientiem\u201d jaudas tr\u016bkuma d\u0113\u013c, k\u0101 apstiprin\u0101jis t\u0101 izpilddirektore Safra Catz.<\/p>\n
\u201cAtlikto l\u012bgumu paradokss\u201d: l\u012bgumi bez jaudas<\/p>\n
Tikai CoreWeave un Oracle kop\u0101 uzkr\u0101ju\u0161i vair\u0101k nek\u0101 pus triljonu dol\u0101ru atlikto ie\u0146\u0113mumu, tirgus saskaras ar to, ko Visser d\u0113v\u0113 par \u201catlikto l\u012bgumu paradoksu\u201d. MI uz\u0146\u0113mumiem ir klienti, kapit\u0101ls un l\u012bgumi, ta\u010du tie nesp\u0113j pietiekami \u0101tri ieviest infrastrukt\u016bru, lai tos monetiz\u0113tu. Kreigs \u0160apiro, invest\u012bciju firmas Collaborative Fund dibin\u0101t\u0101js un vado\u0161ais partneris, \u0161o jaut\u0101jumu nesen izvirz\u012bjis ar\u012b soci\u0101laj\u0101 t\u012bkl\u0101 X. \u201cMI piepras\u012bjums sad\u016br\u0101s ar fiziskajiem ierobe\u017eojumiem. N\u0101kamais nosl\u0113pums ir zemes, ener\u0123ijas, \u016bdens un piesl\u0113guma t\u012bklu piek\u013cuves kontrole. Uz\u0146\u0113mumi, kuriem ir nodro\u0161in\u0101ti megavati, ie\u0146em sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101ku poz\u012bciju nek\u0101 uz\u0146\u0113mumi, kas pieg\u0101d\u0101 GPU. L\u0113ta, stabila ener\u0123ija nosaka visa b\u016bvniec\u012bbas tempa.\u201d<\/p>\n
B\u016bt\u012bb\u0101 MI sektor\u0101 notieko\u0161\u0101s p\u0101rmai\u0146as ir struktur\u0101las. \u0160is nav vienk\u0101r\u0161s jaut\u0101jums par to, vai MI \u201cburbulis\u201d pl\u012bs\u012bs, jo v\u0113sture r\u0101da, ka pat tad, kad burbu\u013ci sabr\u016bk, pamat\u0101 eso\u0161\u0101s tehnolo\u0123ijas bie\u017ei vien atgrie\u017eas sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101kas un transformat\u012bv\u0101kas. MI gad\u012bjum\u0101 bailes nav par to, ka piepras\u012bjums izzud\u012bs \u2013 t\u0101s ir bailes, ka fizisk\u0101 pasaule vienk\u0101r\u0161i nesp\u0113j l\u012bdzi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Vai m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta bums dr\u012bz beigsies? P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 laik\u0101 atkal uzvirmoju\u0161as ba\u017eas par iesp\u0113jamu m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta (MI) tirgus \u201cburbu\u013ca\u201d…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":52391,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[5090,77,76,14366,14367,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,87,14365],"class_list":{"0":"post-52390","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-akciju-tirgus","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-finansu-burbulis","12":"tag-infrastrukturas-ierobezojumi","13":"tag-latvia","14":"tag-latvian","15":"tag-latviesu","16":"tag-latviesu-valoda","17":"tag-latviesuvaloda","18":"tag-latvija","19":"tag-lv","20":"tag-maksligais-intelekts","21":"tag-mi-tirgus"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115569422689297236","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}