Neskaidr\u012bba par ekonomiku rada \u0161aubas par Feder\u0101lo rezervju procentu likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anu<\/p>\n
Decembra procentu likmju samazin\u0101jums ir t\u0101lu no dro\u0161\u012bbas, jo infl\u0101cija joproj\u0101m p\u0101rsniedz Fed m\u0113r\u0137i. Taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 past\u0101v riski ASV darba tirgum. Tas, kas k\u0101dreiz tika uzskat\u012bts par gandr\u012bz dro\u0161u procentu likmju samazin\u0101jumu n\u0101kamaj\u0101 m\u0113nes\u012b, tagad izskat\u0101s dr\u012bz\u0101k p\u0113c mon\u0113tas me\u0161anas, jo Feder\u0101lo rezervju amatpersonas krasi at\u0161\u0137iras viedok\u013ci par ekonomikas vesel\u012bbu un to, vai notur\u012bg\u0101 infl\u0101cija vai v\u0101j\u0161 nodarbin\u0101t\u012bbas pieaugums rada liel\u0101kus draudus.<\/p>\n
P\u0113d\u0113j\u0101s ned\u0113\u013cas laik\u0101 vair\u0101kos publiskos izteikumos da\u017ei politikas veidot\u0101ji paudu\u0161i liel\u0101kas ba\u017eas par notur\u012bgo infl\u0101ciju, kas atg\u0101dina \u201cpieejam\u012bbas\u201d probl\u0113mas, kur\u0101m bija liela noz\u012bme \u0161\u012b m\u0113ne\u0161a s\u0101kum\u0101 notiku\u0161aj\u0101s v\u0113l\u0113\u0161an\u0101s. Vienlaikus cita nometne ir daudz vair\u0101k noraiz\u0113jusies par niec\u012bgu nodarbin\u0101t\u012bbas pieaugumu un draudiem, ka darba tirgus, kur\u0101 \u201cmaz nodarbina un maz atbr\u012bvo\u201d, var\u0113tu pasliktin\u0101ties, izraisot pla\u0161\u0101kus atlai\u0161anas gad\u012bjumus.<\/p>\n
Neskaidr\u012bba Fed 19 locek\u013cu procentu likmju noteik\u0161anas komitej\u0101 atspogu\u013co dzi\u013ci nenoteiktu ekonomikas perspekt\u012bvu, ko rad\u012bju\u0161i vair\u0101ki faktori, tostarp tarifi, m\u0101ksl\u012bgais intelekts (MI) un imigr\u0101cijas un nodok\u013cu politikas izmai\u0146as. \u201cTas liecina par milz\u012bgu nenoteikt\u012bbu,\u201d atzina M&T Bank galvenais ekonomists L\u016bks Tilijs. \u201cNav nemaz p\u0101rsteidzo\u0161i, ka ir pla\u0161a viedok\u013cu at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bba.\u201d<\/p>\n
Likmju samazin\u0101juma cer\u012bbas un ba\u017eas<\/p>\n
Maz\u0101ks procentu likmju samazin\u0101jums no Fed puses var\u0113tu saglab\u0101t augstas m\u0101jok\u013cu un automa\u0161\u012bnu aiz\u0146em\u0161an\u0101s izmaksas. D\u0101rg\u0101ki hipot\u0113ku un auto kred\u012bti veicina pla\u0161i izplat\u012bto uzskatu, ka dz\u012bv\u012bbas izmaksu l\u012bmenis ir p\u0101r\u0101k augsts, liecina aptaujas. Da\u017ei Fed nov\u0113rot\u0101ji nor\u0101da, ka decembra 9.-10. decembra san\u0101ksm\u0113 ir iesp\u0113jams neparasti liels balsu vair\u0101kums, neatkar\u012bgi no t\u0101, vai centr\u0101l\u0101 banka samazin\u0101s likmes vai n\u0113.<\/p>\n
\nK\u0101ds anal\u012bti\u0137is no Evercore ISI prognoz\u0113, ka l\u0113mums par samazin\u0101jumu var\u0113tu izrais\u012bt \u010detras vai piecas domstarp\u012bbas, savuk\u0101rt l\u0113mums par likmju nemain\u012b\u0161anu var\u0113tu rad\u012bt tr\u012bs. \u010cetras balsis pret\u0113ji b\u016btu \u013coti neparasti, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 Fed v\u0113sturisko v\u0113lmi pan\u0101kt konsensu. P\u0113d\u0113jo reizi \u010detri amatpersonas iebilda 1992. gad\u0101 toreiz\u0113j\u0101 priek\u0161s\u0113d\u0113t\u0101ja Alana Gr\u012bnspana vad\u012bb\u0101.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
V\u0101j\u0161 darba tirgus un infl\u0101cijas draudi<\/p>\n
Fed p\u0101rvaldnieks Kristofers Valers pirmdien atz\u012bm\u0113ja, ka Fed kriti\u0137i bie\u017ei to aps\u016bdz \u201cgrupveida dom\u0101\u0161an\u0101\u201d, jo daudzi t\u0101s l\u0113mumi tiek pie\u0146emti vienpr\u0101t\u012bgi. \u201cCilv\u0113ki, kuri m\u016bs par to aps\u016bdz, gatavojieties,\u201d Valers sac\u012bja pirmdien London\u0101. \u201cJ\u016bs, iesp\u0113jams, redz\u0113siet vismaz\u0101ko grupveida dom\u0101\u0161anu\u2026 ilgu laiku.\u201d<\/p>\n
At\u0161\u0137ir\u012bbas ir saasin\u0101ju\u0161\u0101s, jo valsts p\u0101rvaldes sl\u0113g\u0161ana ir p\u0101rtraukusi ekonomisko datu pieejam\u012bbu, kas ir \u012bpa\u0161a probl\u0113ma Fed, kuru priek\u0161s\u0113d\u0113t\u0101js D\u017eeroms Pauels bie\u017ei ir raksturojis k\u0101 \u201catkar\u012bgu no datiem\u201d. P\u0113d\u0113jais vald\u012bbas darba tirgus zi\u0146ojums bija par augustu, bet infl\u0101cija \u2013 par septembri. Septembra dati par nodarbin\u0101t\u012bbu beidzot tiks public\u0113ti ceturtdien, un tiek prognoz\u0113ts neliels pieaugums par 50 000 darba viet\u0101m \u0161aj\u0101 m\u0113nes\u012b un nemain\u012bgs bezdarba l\u012bmenis joproj\u0101m zem\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b \u2013 4,3%.<\/p>\n
\u0160obr\u012bd Volstr\u012btas investori procentu likmju samazin\u0101juma iesp\u0113jam\u012bbu decembr\u012b nov\u0113rt\u0113 k\u0101 50-50, liecina CME Fedwatch, kas ir iev\u0113rojams kritums no gandr\u012bz 94% pirms m\u0113ne\u0161a. \u0160is kritums ir veicin\u0101jis akciju tirgus kritumu \u0161oned\u0113\u013c.<\/p>\n
Politikas veidot\u0101ju da\u017e\u0101die skat\u012bjumi<\/p>\n
P\u0113c savu galveno likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anas septembr\u012b pirmo reizi \u0161ogad Fed politikas veidot\u0101ji signaliz\u0113ja, ka paredz v\u0113l divus samazin\u0101jumus \u2013 oktobr\u012b un decembr\u012b. Ta\u010du p\u0113c otr\u0101 samazin\u0101juma veik\u0161anas 29. oktobr\u012b Pauels nedaudz atv\u0113sin\u0101ja izredzes uz v\u0113l vienu samazin\u0101jumu, raksturojot to k\u0101 \u201cnevis nosl\u0113gtu dar\u012bjumu \u2013 t\u0101lu no t\u0101\u201d. Un pag\u0101ju\u0161\u0101s ned\u0113\u013cas runas da\u017e\u0101dos re\u0123ion\u0101los Fed vad\u012bt\u0101jus v\u0113l vair\u0101k samazin\u0101ja tirgus izredzes uz decembra samazin\u0101jumu.<\/p>\n
Sj\u016bzena Kolinsa, Bostonas Feder\u0101l\u0101s rezervju bankas prezidente, sac\u012bja: \u201cVis\u0101s man\u0101s sarun\u0101s ar kontaktperson\u0101m vis\u0101 Jaunanglij\u0101 es dzirdu ba\u017eas par paaugstin\u0101t\u0101m cen\u0101m.\u201d Kolinsa nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka Fed galven\u0101s likmes saglab\u0101\u0161ana pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b aptuveni 3,9% pal\u012bdz\u0113tu samazin\u0101t infl\u0101ciju. Ekonomika \u201cir \u013coti labi tur\u0113jusies\u201d pat ar pa\u0161reiz\u0113j\u0101m procentu likm\u0113m, vi\u0146a piebilda.<\/p>\n
Vair\u0101ki citi re\u0123ion\u0101lie prezidenti pauda l\u012bdz\u012bgas ba\u017eas, tostarp Rafaels Bostiks no Atlantas Fed, Alberto Musalems no Sentluisas Fed un D\u017eefrijs \u0160mids no Kanzasitijas Fed. Musalems, Kolinsa un \u0160mids ir starp 12 amatperson\u0101m, kas \u0161ogad balso par politiku. \u0160mids oktobr\u012b balsoja pret\u0113ji, atbalstot likmju nemain\u012b\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cKad es run\u0101ju ar kontaktperson\u0101m sav\u0101 apgabal\u0101, es dzirdu turpin\u0101tu ba\u017eu par cenu pieauguma tempu,\u201d piektdien sac\u012bja \u0160mids. \u201cKaut kas no t\u0101 ir saist\u012bts ar tarifu ietekmi uz izejvielu cen\u0101m, bet ne tikai tarifi \u2013 vai pat galvenok\u0101rt tarifi \u2013 rada cilv\u0113kiem ba\u017eas. Es dzirdu ba\u017eas par pieaugo\u0161aj\u0101m vesel\u012bbas apr\u016bpes izmaks\u0101m un apdro\u0161in\u0101\u0161anas pr\u0113mij\u0101m, un es daudz dzirdu par elektr\u012bbu.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Pirmdien gan Valers apgalvoja, ka l\u0113na nodarbin\u0101t\u012bbas pieauguma probl\u0113ma ir liel\u0101ka un atjaunoja savu aicin\u0101jumu samazin\u0101t likmes n\u0101kamaj\u0101 m\u0113nes\u012b. \u201cDarba tirgus joproj\u0101m ir v\u0101j\u0161 un gandr\u012bz apst\u0101jies,\u201d vi\u0146\u0161 teica. \u201cInfl\u0101cija septembr\u012b joproj\u0101m par\u0101d\u012bja sal\u012bdzino\u0161i nelielu tarifu ietekmi un atbalsta hipot\u0113zi, ka tarifi … nav notur\u012bgs infl\u0101cijas avots.\u201d<\/p>\n
Valers ar\u012b noraid\u012bja ba\u017eas \u2013 ko pauda \u0160mids un citi \u2013, ka Fed vajadz\u0113tu saglab\u0101t augstas likmes, jo infl\u0101cija ir p\u0101rsniegusi Fed 2% m\u0113r\u0137i piecus gadus. L\u012bdz \u0161im tas nav licis sabiedr\u012bbai ba\u017e\u012bties, ka infl\u0101cija ilgsto\u0161i saglab\u0101sies augsta, atz\u012bm\u0113ja Valers. \u201cJ\u016bs nevarat vienk\u0101r\u0161i teikt, ka t\u0101 ir bijusi virs m\u0113r\u0137a piecus gadus, t\u0101p\u0113c es nesamazin\u0101\u0161u,\u201d vi\u0146\u0161 piebilda. \u201cJums ir j\u0101sniedz mums lab\u0101kas atbildes nek\u0101 tas.\u201d<\/p>\n
Konsensa mekl\u0113jumi un n\u0101kotnes prognozes<\/p>\n
Ja, piem\u0113ram, jaunie dati par oktobri un novembri par\u0101d\u012bs, ka ekonomika zaud\u0113 darba vietas, var\u0113tu rasties vienprt\u012bba par procentu likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anu, sac\u012bja bijus\u012b Kanzasitijas Fed prezidente Estere D\u017eord\u017ea. Ir v\u0113rts ar\u012b atz\u012bm\u0113t, ka daudzi ekonomisti bija gaid\u012bju\u0161i vair\u0101kas domstarp\u012bbas septembr\u012b, ta\u010du t\u0101 viet\u0101 tikai prezidents Donalds Tramps toreiz ieceltais gubernators Stefans Mirans balsoja pret likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anas l\u0113mumu, atbalstot v\u0113l liel\u0101ku samazin\u0101jumu.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cRe\u0123istr\u0113t domstarp\u012bbas ir gr\u016bts l\u0113mums, un es dom\u0101ju, ka j\u016bs atrad\u012bsiet cilv\u0113kus, kuri \u0161odien run\u0101 un kuri neatbalst\u012bs balsojumu \u0161aj\u0101 virzien\u0101,\u201d vi\u0146a teica. \u201cEs dom\u0101ju, ka j\u016bs atrad\u012bsiet pietiekami daudz konsensa, neatkar\u012bgi no virziena, kur\u0101 vi\u0146i dosies.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Neskaidr\u012bba par ekonomiku rada \u0161aubas par Feder\u0101lo rezervju procentu likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anu Decembra procentu likmju samazin\u0101jums ir t\u0101lu no…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54025,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[77,76,4603,47,14701,550,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,549],"class_list":{"0":"post-54024","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-bizness","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-darba-tirgus","11":"tag-ekonomika","12":"tag-federalo-rezervju","13":"tag-inflacija","14":"tag-latvia","15":"tag-latvian","16":"tag-latviesu","17":"tag-latviesu-valoda","18":"tag-latviesuvaloda","19":"tag-latvija","20":"tag-lv","21":"tag-procentu-likmes"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115578152068388334","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54024\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}