P\u0113d\u0113jo tr\u012bsdesmit gadu laik\u0101 atelpas br\u012b\u017ei starp da\u017e\u0101diem glob\u0101liem ekonomiskiem satricin\u0101jumiem ir b\u016btiski saruku\u0161i. Ekonomisk\u0101 att\u012bst\u012bba da\u017eubr\u012bd notiek k\u0101 pa amerik\u0101\u0146u kalni\u0146iem. \u0160\u012b iemesla d\u0113\u013c pasaules nenoteikt\u012bbas indekss ir sasniedzis 35 gadu augst\u0101ko l\u012bmeni un turpina k\u0101pt.<\/p>\n
Mazos, atv\u0113rtos tirgos \u2013 t\u0101dos k\u0101 Latvija, Lietuva un Igaunija \u2013 sekas vispirms par\u0101d\u0101s uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju uzved\u012bb\u0101, nevis iek\u0161zemes kopprodukta (IKP) datos. Tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka izmai\u0146as nepiecie\u0161amas ar\u012b biznesa risku izv\u0113rt\u0113\u0161an\u0101.<\/p>\n
Pirm\u0101 paz\u012bme \u2013 maks\u0101jumu kav\u0113jumi<\/p>\n
Pirmie sign\u0101li par\u0101d\u0101s uz\u0146\u0113mumu maks\u0101jumu kav\u0113jumu datos \u2013 nokav\u0113ti maks\u0101jumi, bank\u0101m, l\u012bzinga uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, komun\u0101lo pakalpojumu sniedz\u0113jiem, degvielas tirgot\u0101jiem, par\u0101du piedzin\u0113jiem u.tml. T\u0101 k\u0101 \u0161ie dati vis\u0101s tr\u012bs valst\u012bs tiek atjaunoti katru dienu, tie \u013cauj re\u0101l\u0101 laik\u0101 paman\u012bt finan\u0161u spriedzi uz\u0146\u0113mum\u0101, un tas ir krietni pirms uz\u0146\u0113mum\u0101 ir iest\u0101ju\u0161\u0101s nenov\u0113r\u0161anas probl\u0113mas, kas var beigties ar maks\u0101tnesp\u0113ju.<\/p>\n
S\u0101kum\u0101 skar uz\u0146\u0113mumus, tad m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bbas<\/p>\n
Baltijas kred\u012btinform\u0101cijas biroju dati liecina, ka m\u016bsu re\u0123ion\u0101 glob\u0101lie ekonomiskie satricin\u0101jumi vispirms skar uz\u0146\u0113mumus, jo apm\u0113ram viena ceturk\u0161\u0146a laik\u0101 tiem aug izmaksas vai sar\u016bk likvidit\u0101te. P\u0113c tam tas atbalsojas m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bb\u0101s \u2013 k\u0101du laiku spriedze tiek absorb\u0113ta, jo m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bbas t\u0113r\u0113 uzkr\u0101jumus, bet kad tie izs\u012bkst, izmai\u0146as pat\u0113ri\u0146\u0101 notiek \u013coti strauji.<\/p>\n
Viens re\u0123ions \u2013 tr\u012bs scen\u0101riji<\/p>\n
Lai gan m\u0113dzam Baltiju uzskat\u012bt par vienotu tirgu, tom\u0113r starp valst\u012bm ir v\u0113rojamas at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bbas. Ja bizness ir izvietots vis\u0101s trij\u0101s valst\u012bs, lok\u0101lais konteksts ir \u013coti svar\u012bgs. Baltijas kred\u012btinform\u0101cijas biroju apkopotie dati par p\u0113d\u0113jiem \u010detriem gadiem, kuru laik\u0101 bijusi gan Covid pand\u0113mija, gan s\u0101cies Krievijas iebrukums Ukrain\u0101, liecina, ka Igaunija uz satricin\u0101jumiem rea\u0123\u0113 vis\u0101tr\u0101k un ar\u012b \u0101tr\u0101k atkopjas. Latvij\u0101 sv\u0101rst\u012bbas ir vispla\u0161\u0101k\u0101s, savuk\u0101rt Lietuv\u0101 p\u012b\u0137is iest\u0101jas v\u0113l\u0101k, bet saglab\u0101jas ilg\u0101k.<\/p>\n
Ja Latvij\u0101 \u0161aj\u0101 laika period\u0101 ceturksn\u012b no jauna re\u0123istr\u0113to uz\u0146\u0113mumu par\u0101du skaits no vid\u0113j\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas sv\u0101rst\u012bjies pat par 60 % uz aug\u0161u un nepilniem 50 % uz leju, veidojot milz\u012bgu amplit\u016bdu, tad Lietuv\u0101 un Igaunij\u0101 sv\u0101rst\u012bbas biju\u0161as tikai 20 % robe\u017e\u0101s abos virzienos. Strauj\u0101kie par\u0101du pieauguma p\u012b\u0137i Latvij\u0101 ir biju\u0161i 2021. gada otraj\u0101 pus\u0113 un 2023. gad\u0101, ta\u010du no 2024. gada piedz\u012bvota strauja lejupejo\u0161a tendence.Nozaru griezum\u0101 vis\u0101 re\u0123ion\u0101 visnestabil\u0101k\u0101 ir b\u016bvniec\u012bbas nozare. Piem\u0113ram, 2021. gad\u0101 Baltij\u0101 jaunu par\u0101du skaits b\u016bvniec\u012bb\u0101 no 388 gada pirmaj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b pieauga l\u012bdz 646 gada p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 ceturksn\u012b. Ar\u012b vairumtirdzniec\u012bba, mazumtirdzniec\u012bba un lo\u0123istika rea\u0123\u0113 sal\u012bdzino\u0161i \u0101tri. Savuk\u0101rt mazumtirdzniec\u012bba un pakalpojumi visbie\u017e\u0101k pirmie atspogu\u013co pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju spriedzi. Latvij\u0101 pirm\u0101s ekonomisk\u0101s kr\u012bzes paz\u012bmes parasti ir v\u0113rojamas lo\u0123istikas nozar\u0113, Igaunij\u0101 \u2013 mazumtirdzniec\u012bb\u0101 un pakalpojumos, bet Lietuv\u0101 b\u016bvniec\u012bb\u0101 un viesm\u012bl\u012bbas nozar\u0113.<\/p>\n
Biznesa riski j\u0101v\u0113rt\u0113 regul\u0101r\u0101k<\/p>\n
V\u0113l pirms 2020. gada bija nepiecie\u0161ami apm\u0113ram 12 l\u012bdz 18 m\u0113ne\u0161i, kam\u0113r ekonomiski satricin\u0101jumi p\u0101rv\u0113rt\u0101s maks\u0101jumu kav\u0113jumos. \u0160odien tas aiz\u0146em vien 6 l\u012bdz 9 m\u0113ne\u0161us, bet da\u017e\u0101s nozar\u0113s \u2013 tikai vienu ceturksni. T\u0101p\u0113c vairs nepietiek ar sadarb\u012bbas partneru gada p\u0101rskatu izv\u0113rt\u0113\u0161anu un statiskiem riska mode\u013ciem. Riskus vajadz\u0113tu izv\u0113rt\u0113t katru ceturksni, j\u016bt\u012bg\u0101kos portfe\u013cos pat katru m\u0113nesi.<\/p>\n
Ja bizness ir tie\u0161i saist\u012bts ar m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bbas pat\u0113ri\u0146u, pirmos sign\u0101lus par iesp\u0113jamiem riskiem var\u0113s redz\u0113t uz\u0146\u0113mumu datos. Piem\u0113ram, p\u0113c kara s\u0101k\u0161an\u0101 Ukrain\u0101 2022. gada tre\u0161aj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b Baltij\u0101 par 27 % pieaudzis izmitin\u0101\u0161anas un \u0113din\u0101\u0161anas nozares pakalpojumu sniedz\u0113ju jauno par\u0101du skaits sal\u012bdzinot ar ceturksni iepriek\u0161. Savuk\u0101rt Covid laik\u0101 ar katru ceturksni strauji auga par\u0101du skaits m\u0101kslas, sporta un atp\u016btas nozar\u0113.<\/p>\n
Lai ieg\u016btu iesp\u0113jami objekt\u012bv\u0101ku ainu, j\u0101l\u016bkojas gan uz makroekonomikas datiem, gan ikdienas maks\u0101jumu datiem, lai sapratu situ\u0101cijas nopietn\u012bbu. Tas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka dz\u012bves temps ir b\u016btiski pieaudzis ne tikai sadz\u012bv\u0113, bet ar\u012b biznes\u0101. Tiem, kas sp\u0113s laikus saskat\u012bt riskus un tiem piel\u0101goties, b\u016bs liel\u0101kas izredzes no kr\u012bzes iziet saus\u0101m k\u0101j\u0101m!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"P\u0113d\u0113jo tr\u012bsdesmit gadu laik\u0101 atelpas br\u012b\u017ei starp da\u017e\u0101diem glob\u0101liem ekonomiskiem satricin\u0101jumiem ir b\u016btiski saruku\u0161i. Ekonomisk\u0101 att\u012bst\u012bba da\u017eubr\u012bd notiek…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55036,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[869,77,870,76,867,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,21],"class_list":{"0":"post-55035","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-biznesa-zinas","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-bizness-latvija","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-dienas-zinas","13":"tag-latvia","14":"tag-latvian","15":"tag-latviesu","16":"tag-latviesu-valoda","17":"tag-latviesuvaloda","18":"tag-latvija","19":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","20":"tag-latvijas-zinas","21":"tag-lv","22":"tag-zinas"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115586150143466309","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55035"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55035\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}