Eiropas bank\u0101m izcils gads: Ko prognoz\u0113t 2026. gad\u0101?<\/p>\n
Eiropas banku akciju v\u0113rt\u012bba 2025. gad\u0101 sasniedza savu rekordu, piedz\u012bvojot sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101ko gadu nozares v\u0113stur\u0113. K\u0101 inform\u0113 telekan\u0101ls EuroNews, \u0161is iespaid\u012bgais sniegums ir sekuvis p\u0113c vair\u0101k nek\u0101 desmitgadi ilgas zemas veiktsp\u0113jas, un tas signaliz\u0113 par investoru noska\u0146ojuma krasi main\u012b\u0161anos. EURO STOXX Banks indekss l\u012bdz 12. decembrim bija pieaudzis par 76% gada izteiksm\u0113, p\u0101rsniedzot pat 1997. gada 74% pieaugumu. \u0160is rallijs ir bijis p\u0101rsteidzo\u0161i pla\u0161s \u2013 visas indeksa sast\u0101vda\u013cas ir demonstr\u0113ju\u0161as pozit\u012bvu atdevi, bet iev\u0113rojams skaits aizdev\u0113ju ir sasniedzis tr\u012bsciparu pieaugumu. \u0100rk\u0101rt\u012bgi veiksm\u012bgi ir biju\u0161i t\u0101di sp\u0113l\u0113t\u0101ji k\u0101 Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale un Commerzbank, kuru akciju v\u0113rt\u012bba attiec\u012bgi pieauga par 139% un 136%. Sp\u0101nijas Banco Santander k\u0101pums sasniedza 110%, bet ABN Amro \u2013 102%. Starp citiem augst\u0101kajiem snieguma r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem ir ar\u012b BBVA (+101%), CaixaBank (+96%), Deutsche Bank (+92%), Bankinter (+86%) un Bank of Ireland (+84%).<\/p>\n
Iemesli banku akciju k\u0101pumam 2025. gad\u0101<\/p>\n
Nozares uzplaukumu veicin\u0101ja t\u0101 d\u0113v\u0113tais makroekonomiskais \u201csaldais punkts\u201d. Proti, procentu likmes palika pietiekami augstas, lai atbalst\u012btu pe\u013c\u0146as normas, ekonomikas izaugsme bija pietiekami sp\u0113c\u012bga, lai pasarg\u0101tu akt\u012bvu kvalit\u0101ti, un kapit\u0101la buferi bija pietiekami lieli, lai atalgotu akcion\u0101rus. Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101 banka 2025. gada j\u016bnij\u0101 aptur\u0113ja procentu likmju samazin\u0101\u0161anas ciklu, kop\u0161 t\u0101 laika uzturojot depoz\u012btu procentu likmi 2% apm\u0113r\u0101. Lai gan \u0161\u012b likme ir krietni zem\u0101ka par 2023.\u20132024. gada virsotn\u0113m, t\u0101 joproj\u0101m bija \u0113rti virs pirms pand\u0113mijas norm\u0101m, \u013caujot eirozonas aizdev\u0113jiem saglab\u0101t paaugstin\u0101tas neto procentu mar\u017eas. Taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 izaugsmes rezult\u0101ti p\u0101rsniedza tirgus piesardz\u012bg\u0101s cer\u012bbas. V\u0101cija izvair\u012bj\u0101s no dzi\u013cas r\u016bpniec\u012bbas recesijas, Dienvideiropa turpin\u0101ja g\u016bt labumu no sp\u0113c\u012bga t\u016brisma un ES invest\u012bciju pl\u016bsm\u0101m, un bloka fisk\u0101l\u0101 politika joproj\u0101m bija maigi atbalsto\u0161a. Pat ba\u017eas par pla\u0161\u0101ku ekonomikas \u0161oku, ko rad\u012bja Donalds Tramps ar savu atjaunoto tarifu politiku, b\u016btiski nepiepild\u012bj\u0101s. Kred\u012btu nosac\u012bjumi palika stabili, aizdevumu zaud\u0113jumi \u2013 ierobe\u017eoti, un uztic\u012bba banku bilanc\u0113m pieauga. Savuk\u0101rt kapit\u0101la atdeve k\u013cuva par galveno akciju st\u0101sta sast\u0101vda\u013cu. Liel\u0101k\u0101 da\u013ca Eiropas banku str\u0101d\u0101 labi virs regulatorisko kapit\u0101la pras\u012bbu l\u012bme\u0146a, ar CET1 koeficientiem, kas stabili turas vid\u0113jos pamatvienpadsmitniekos. \u0160ie koeficienti tiek izmantoti, lai noteiktu aizdev\u0113ju sp\u0113ju izdz\u012bvot sare\u017e\u0123\u012btu monet\u0101ru notikumu. Sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101s kapit\u0101la pras\u012bbas \u013c\u0101va vad\u012bbai palielin\u0101t dividendes, akciju atpirk\u0161anu un citus akcion\u0101ru ien\u0101kumu veidus. Palielin\u0101t\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas pieaugums pastiprin\u0101ja ralliju. Eiropas bankas gada s\u0101kum\u0101 tika tirgotas ar iev\u0113rojam\u0101m atlaid\u0113m pret gr\u0101matved\u012bbas v\u0113rt\u012bbu un glob\u0101lajiem konkurentiem, atspogu\u013cojot gadiem ilgu\u0161\u0101s negat\u012bv\u0101s likmes, smago regul\u0113jumu un zemus ien\u0101kumus. Visbeidzot, savu lomu nosp\u0113l\u0113ja glob\u0101l\u0101s portfe\u013cu pl\u016bsmas. Starptautiskie investori p\u0101rorient\u0113j\u0101s uz Eiropas v\u0113rt\u012bbas akcij\u0101m un finan\u0161u instrumentiem, savuk\u0101rt sp\u0113c\u012bg\u0101ks eiro uzlaboja eirozonas akt\u012bvu relat\u012bvo pievilc\u012bbu dol\u0101ru b\u0101z\u0113tajiem investoriem.<\/p>\n
Eiropas banku perspekt\u012bvas 2026. gad\u0101<\/p>\n
Skatoties n\u0101kotn\u0113, invest\u012bciju banku anal\u012bti\u0137i kopum\u0101 saglab\u0101 pozit\u012bvu skat\u012bjumu uz Eiropas aizdev\u0113jiem. Nesenaj\u0101 nozares apskat\u0101 Goldman Sachs anal\u012bti\u0137is Kriss Halams atz\u012bm\u0113ja, ka 2026. gad\u0101 investoru uzman\u012bba, visticam\u0101k, p\u0101rvirz\u012bsies no procentu likm\u0113m un kred\u012btiem uz izaugsmi un efektivit\u0101ti. Goldman Sachs prognoz\u0113, ka izaugsmes dinamiku veicin\u0101s nep\u0101rtraukta noguld\u012bjumu piepl\u016bde, uz noguld\u012bjumiem orient\u0113tas strat\u0113\u0123ijas un pak\u0101penisks aizdevumu pieauguma stiprin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s. Anal\u012bti\u0137i apraksta operacion\u0101lo vidi k\u0101 \u201clab\u0101ku ilgtermi\u0146\u0101\u201d, ar vid\u0113ja termi\u0146a ien\u0101kumu l\u012bmeni, kas saglab\u0101sies vid\u0113jos pamatvienpadsmitniekos. Goldman Sachs ieskat\u0101, nozare joproj\u0101m ir labi kapitaliz\u0113ta un \u013coti kapit\u0101lu \u0123ener\u0113jo\u0161a, atbalstot turpm\u0101ku kapit\u0101la pie\u0161\u0137ir\u0161anu, izmantojot organisko izaugsmi, selekt\u012bvus apvieno\u0161an\u0101s un p\u0101r\u0146em\u0161anas dar\u012bjumus (M&A) un akcion\u0101ru izmaksas. Tikm\u0113r v\u0113rt\u0113jumi joproj\u0101m \u0161\u0137iet nepietiekami nov\u0113rt\u0113ti. Goldman Sachs prognoz\u0113 divciparu pe\u013c\u0146as uz akciju (EPS) pieaugumu nozarei, neskatoties uz vienciparu cenu\/pe\u013c\u0146as attiec\u012bbu (P\/E) r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem. Citiem v\u0101rdiem sakot, bankas pelna naudu, bet to v\u0113rt\u0113jumi neatpaliek. Goldman Sachs visaugst\u0101k\u0101s p\u0101rliec\u012bbas Eiropas banku akcijas ar potenci\u0101lu k\u0101pumu ietver UBS Group (34%), UniCredit (29%), Banco BPM (29%), Julius Baer (25%), Alpha Bank (21%) un KBC Group (21%). Tas liecina, ka pat p\u0113c veiksm\u012bg\u0101 2025. gada nozares rallijs v\u0113l nav beidzies. P\u0113c v\u0113sturisk\u0101 2025. gada Eiropas bankas sagaida 2026. gadu ne vairs k\u0101 dzi\u013ci v\u0113rt\u012bgu atvese\u013co\u0161an\u0101s tirdzniec\u012bbu, bet gan k\u0101 nozari, kas arvien vair\u0101k tiek v\u0113rt\u0113ta p\u0113c izaugsmes izpildes, efektivit\u0101tes pieauguma un kapit\u0101la discipl\u012bnas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eiropas bank\u0101m izcils gads: Ko prognoz\u0113t 2026. gad\u0101? Eiropas banku akciju v\u0113rt\u012bba 2025. gad\u0101 sasniedza savu rekordu, piedz\u012bvojot…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73558,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[5090,77,76,2262,5022,18706,18707,35,39,38,36,37,34,40],"class_list":{"0":"post-73557","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-akciju-tirgus","9":"tag-bizness","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-eiropas-bankas","12":"tag-finansu-tirgus","13":"tag-investiciju-prognozes","14":"tag-kapitala-atdeve","15":"tag-latvia","16":"tag-latvian","17":"tag-latviesu","18":"tag-latviesu-valoda","19":"tag-latviesuvaloda","20":"tag-latvija","21":"tag-lv"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115713709380922724","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73557\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}