Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas (ECB) gaid\u0101m\u0101 san\u0101ksme: Vai gaid\u0101mas izmai\u0146as procentu likm\u0113s?<\/p>\n
\u0160oned\u0113\u013c, ceturtdien, 18. decembr\u012b, notiks Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas (ECB) k\u0101rt\u0113j\u0101 padomes s\u0113de, kur\u0101 politikas veidot\u0101ji lems par turpm\u0101kajiem monet\u0101r\u0101s politikas so\u013ciem, tostarp procentu likmju noteik\u0161anu. Investoru un finan\u0161u tirgus dal\u012bbnieku vid\u016b valda zin\u0101mas ba\u017eas un nepaciet\u012bba, jo \u012bpa\u0161i \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 nesenos ekonomiskos datus un glob\u0101l\u0101s tirgus tendences. Vai ECB iz\u0161\u0137irsies par izmai\u0146\u0101m, kas var\u0113tu ietekm\u0113t gan uz\u0146\u0113mumus, gan iedz\u012bvot\u0101jus vis\u0101 eirozon\u0101?<\/p>\n
Ekonomisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija un t\u0101s ietekme uz l\u0113mumiem<\/p>\n
P\u0113d\u0113jie ekonomikas r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji eirozon\u0101 sniedz pretrun\u012bgu ainu. Lai gan infl\u0101cijas spiediens ir mazin\u0101jies, kop\u0113jais ekonomikas izaugsmes temps joproj\u0101m nav \u012bpa\u0161i strauj\u0161. \u0160\u0101da situ\u0101cija bie\u017ei vien liek centr\u0101laj\u0101m bank\u0101m r\u016bp\u012bgi sv\u0113rt katru soli, cen\u0161oties rast l\u012bdzsvaru starp cenu stabilit\u0101tes nodro\u0161in\u0101\u0161anu un ekonomisk\u0101s aktivit\u0101tes stimul\u0113\u0161anu. Da\u017ei anal\u012bti\u0137i nor\u0101da, ka ECB var\u0113tu izv\u0113l\u0113ties saglab\u0101t eso\u0161\u0101s procentu likmes nemain\u012bgas, lai dotu laiku nov\u0113rt\u0113t iepriek\u0161 veikto pas\u0101kumu ietekmi. Citi ir skeptisk\u0101ki, ba\u017e\u012bjoties, ka ekonomikas bremz\u0113\u0161an\u0101s var\u0113tu piepras\u012bt akt\u012bv\u0101ku r\u012bc\u012bbu, piem\u0113ram, procentu likmju pazemin\u0101\u0161anu vai papildu kvantitat\u012bv\u0101s m\u012bkstin\u0101\u0161anas pas\u0101kumu uzs\u0101k\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
Infl\u0101cijas prognozes ir \u012bpa\u0161i svar\u012bgs faktors. Lai gan pa\u0161reiz\u0113jie dati liecina par infl\u0101cijas pal\u0113nin\u0101\u0161anos, ECB m\u0113r\u0137is ir nodro\u0161in\u0101t cenu stabilit\u0101ti aptuveni 2% l\u012bmen\u012b vid\u0113j\u0101 termi\u0146\u0101. Ja infl\u0101cijas prognozes liecin\u0101s par turpm\u0101ku atsl\u0101bumu vai pat defl\u0101cijas risku, tas var\u0113tu pamudin\u0101t ECB uz stingr\u0101kiem monet\u0101r\u0101s politikas pas\u0101kumiem. Glu\u017ei pret\u0113ji, ja infl\u0101cijas spiediens saglab\u0101sies sp\u0113c\u012bgs, banka var\u0113tu apsv\u0113rt procentu likmju paaugstin\u0101\u0161anu, lai gan \u0161obr\u012bd tas \u0161\u0137iet maz\u0101k ticams scen\u0101rijs.<\/p>\n
Iesp\u0113jamie scen\u0101riji un to sekas<\/p>\n
Ja ECB nolemj *nemain\u012bt procentu likmes*, tas noz\u012bm\u0113tu eso\u0161\u0101s politikas turpin\u0101\u0161anu. Tas var\u0113tu rad\u012bt stabilit\u0101tes saj\u016btu tirg\u016b, ta\u010du vienlaikus var\u0113tu nepietikt ar stimuliem, lai veicin\u0101tu strauj\u0101ku ekonomikas atvese\u013co\u0161anos. Uz\u0146\u0113mumiem un m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bb\u0101m tas noz\u012bm\u0113tu turpin\u0101t eso\u0161os aiz\u0146em\u0161an\u0101s nosac\u012bjumus, kas var b\u016bt gan izdev\u012bgi, gan bremz\u0113jo\u0161i atkar\u012bb\u0101 no konkr\u0113t\u0101s situ\u0101cijas.<\/p>\n
Savuk\u0101rt, ja ECB iz\u0161\u0137iras par procentu likmju *pazemin\u0101\u0161anu*, tas var\u0113tu b\u016bt sign\u0101ls par ba\u017e\u0101m attiec\u012bb\u0101 uz ekonomikas perspekt\u012bv\u0101m. Likmju samazin\u0101\u0161ana padar\u012btu aiz\u0146em\u0161anos l\u0113t\u0101ku, kas potenci\u0101li var\u0113tu stimul\u0113t invest\u012bcijas un pat\u0113ri\u0146u. Tas b\u016btu pat\u012bkami tiem, kas pl\u0101no \u0146emt jaunus kred\u012btus, piem\u0113ram, m\u0101jok\u013ca ieg\u0101dei, ta\u010du vienlaikus var\u0113tu samazin\u0101t ien\u0101kumus tiem, kas izvietoju\u0161i l\u012bdzek\u013cus depoz\u012btos vai citos fiks\u0113ta ien\u0101kuma instrumentos. Tas ir k\u0101 ce\u013cu satiksmes regul\u0113\u0161ana \u2013 reiz\u0113m nepiecie\u0161ams pal\u0113nin\u0101t gaitu, lai izvair\u012btos no av\u0101rijas, citreiz \u2013 dot dro\u0161u sign\u0101lu, ka var dro\u0161i pa\u0101trin\u0101ties.<\/p>\n
Past\u0101v ar\u012b maz ticams, bet tom\u0113r iesp\u0113jams scen\u0101rijs, ka ECB pie\u0146em l\u0113mumu par procentu likmju *paaugstin\u0101\u0161anu*. Tas b\u016btu \u013coti sp\u0113c\u012bgs sign\u0101ls par infl\u0101cijas uz\u0146em\u0161anu un centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas ap\u0146\u0113m\u012bbu to kontrol\u0113t. \u0160\u0101ds solis rad\u012btu spiedienu uz aiz\u0146\u0113m\u0113jiem un var\u0113tu pal\u0113nin\u0101t ekonomisko aktivit\u0101ti, ta\u010du ilgtermi\u0146\u0101 var\u0113tu nodro\u0161in\u0101t liel\u0101ku cenu stabilit\u0101ti.<\/p>\n
Anal\u012bti\u0137u un tirgus prognozes<\/p>\n
Finan\u0161u tirgus dal\u012bbnieki un ekonomikas anal\u012bti\u0137i uzman\u012bgi v\u0113ro visas ECB komunik\u0101cijas paz\u012bmes, lai prognoz\u0113tu t\u0101s r\u012bc\u012bbu. Daudzas prognozes liecina, ka ECB visticam\u0101k saglab\u0101s eso\u0161\u0101s procentu likmes, tom\u0113r tiek pie\u013cauta ar\u012b iesp\u0113ja nelieliem piel\u0101gojumiem vai papildu stimul\u0113\u0161anas pas\u0101kumiem, ja ekonomisk\u0101 situ\u0101cija to pras\u012bs. B\u016btiski ir ar\u012b ECB prezidentes izteikumi un ofici\u0101lais pazi\u0146ojums p\u0113c s\u0113des, kas sniegs skaidr\u0101ku priek\u0161statu par bankas t\u0101l\u0101kaj\u0101m nodomiem un attieksmi pret pa\u0161reiz\u0113jo ekonomisko situ\u0101ciju. \u0160\u012b san\u0101ksme ir k\u0101 spriedzes pilns br\u012bdis, kur\u0101 tiek atkl\u0101ta n\u0101kam\u0101 noda\u013ca eirozonas ekonomikas st\u0101st\u0101.<\/p>\n
Tirgus dal\u012bbnieki stingri iesaka sekot l\u012bdzi ECB pazi\u0146ojumiem, jo tie var b\u016btiski ietekm\u0113t finan\u0161u tirgus, val\u016btu kursus un visp\u0101r\u0113jo ekonomisko klimatu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas (ECB) gaid\u0101m\u0101 san\u0101ksme: Vai gaid\u0101mas izmai\u0146as procentu likm\u0113s? \u0160oned\u0113\u013c, ceturtdien, 18. decembr\u012b, notiks Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":77158,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[77,76,548,10200,552,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,4049,549],"class_list":{"0":"post-77157","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-bizness","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-ecb","11":"tag-eiropas-centrala-banka","12":"tag-eirozona","13":"tag-latvia","14":"tag-latvian","15":"tag-latviesu","16":"tag-latviesu-valoda","17":"tag-latviesuvaloda","18":"tag-latvija","19":"tag-lv","20":"tag-monetara-politika","21":"tag-procentu-likmes"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115733032155861326","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}