Bankas “no ultra-br\u012bv\u0101s” politikas pagrieziena sign\u0101li<\/p>\n
Jap\u0101nas Banka (BoJ) ir veikusi v\u0113sturisku pav\u0113rsienu, pace\u013cot procentu likmes uz augst\u0101ko l\u012bmeni p\u0113d\u0113jo tr\u012bsdesmit gadu laik\u0101, signaliz\u0113jot par turpm\u0101ku monet\u0101r\u0101s politikas stingr\u0101ku pievilk\u0161anu. \u0160\u012bs izmai\u0146as atdz\u012bvina ba\u017eas par glob\u0101lo oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bguma pieaugumu un jap\u0101\u0146u investoru kapit\u0101la repatri\u0101cijas risku. BoJ pag\u0101ju\u0161\u0101 gada decembra san\u0101ksm\u0113 paaugstin\u0101ja savu galveno \u012bstermi\u0146a politikas likmi par 25 b\u0101zes punktiem l\u012bdz 0,75%, kas ir augst\u0101kais l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 1995. gada. Lai gan \u0161\u0101ds solis kopum\u0101 bija gaid\u0101ms, t\u0101 tonis bija p\u0101rsteigums. BoJ prezidents Kazuo Ueda pauda diezgan stingru nost\u0101ju, uzsverot, ka Jap\u0101nas \u0101rk\u0101rt\u012bgi zemo procentu likmju \u0113ra tuvojas beig\u0101m, un \u0161\u012bm sek\u0101m var b\u016bt izplat\u012bba daudz t\u0101l\u0101k par Tokiju.<\/p>\n
Stingr\u0101kas monet\u0101r\u0101s politikas virzien\u0101<\/p>\n
Sav\u0101 pazi\u0146ojum\u0101 BoJ uzsv\u0113ra, ka “re\u0101l\u0101s procentu likmes joproj\u0101m tiek prognoz\u0113tas k\u0101 iev\u0113rojami negat\u012bvas” un ka makroekonomiskie apst\u0101k\u013ci joproj\u0101m atbalst\u012bs ekonomisko aktivit\u0101ti. Taj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laik\u0101 BoJ atk\u0101rtoti apliecin\u0101ja, ka, ja izaugsmes un infl\u0101cijas perspekt\u012bvas, kas izkl\u0101st\u012btas t\u0101s oktobra progno\u017eu zi\u0146ojum\u0101, materializ\u0113sies, tad Banka “turpin\u0101s paaugstin\u0101t politikas procentu likmi un piel\u0101got monet\u0101r\u0101s pieejam\u012bbas pak\u0101pi”. Ueda pastiprin\u0101ja \u0161o v\u0113st\u012bjumu preses konferenc\u0113, br\u012bdinot, ka politikas korekciju kav\u0113\u0161ana galu gal\u0101 var\u0113tu piepras\u012bt strauj\u0101kus likmju paaugstin\u0101jumus. Vi\u0146\u0161 ar\u012b atz\u012bm\u0113ja, ka iepriek\u0161\u0113jie likmju paaugstin\u0101jumi v\u0113l nav rad\u012bju\u0161i noz\u012bm\u012bgu stingr\u0101ku efektu, un uzsv\u0113ra, ka politikas likmes joproj\u0101m ir t\u0101lu no Bankas apl\u0113st\u0101s neitr\u0101l\u0101s likmes zem\u0101k\u0101s robe\u017eas. Kopum\u0101 v\u0113st\u012bjums bija nep\u0101rprotams: BoJ ir stingri ap\u0146\u0113musies paaugstin\u0101t likmes.<\/p>\n
Anal\u012bti\u0137u v\u0113rt\u0113jums un glob\u0101l\u0101s sekas<\/p>\n
K\u0101 inform\u0113 telekan\u0101ls EuroNews, “BoJ veica stingru likmes paaugstin\u0101jumu,” sac\u012bja Dariusz Kowalczyk, BBVA anal\u012bti\u0137is, uzsverot skaidro ap\u0146em\u0161anos turpin\u0101t normaliz\u0101ciju. “Es zinu, ka tie ir tikai tr\u012bs ceturtda\u013cas procentpunkta, bet tas ir gandr\u012bz v\u0113sturiski,” atzina Bart Wakabayashi, State Street fili\u0101les vad\u012bt\u0101js Tokij\u0101. “M\u0113s neesam biju\u0161i \u0161aj\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b tr\u012bsdesmit gadus, t\u0101p\u0113c, manupr\u0101t, tas ir iev\u0113rojams solis.” Goldman Sachs galvenais Jap\u0101nas ekonomists Akira Otani br\u012bdin\u0101ja, ka tas nav BoJ likmju paaugstin\u0101\u0161anas beigu punkts un ka \u0161is l\u0113mums pastiprina pak\u0101penisku, bet notur\u012bgu likmju cel\u0161anas tendenci.<\/p>\n
K\u0101p\u0113c tas ir tik svar\u012bgi \u0101rpus Jap\u0101nas?<\/p>\n
Atbilde sl\u0113pjas valsts iz\u0161\u0137iro\u0161aj\u0101 lom\u0101 glob\u0101lajos oblig\u0101ciju tirgos. Jap\u0101na joproj\u0101m ir pasaul\u0113 liel\u0101kais neto kreditors, un t\u0101s starptautisk\u0101 t\u012br\u0101 invest\u012bciju poz\u012bcija 2025. gada septembr\u012b bija aptuveni 3,66 triljoni eiro. Gadiem ilgi Jap\u0101nas zemsl\u0113guma procentu likmes ir veicin\u0101ju\u0161as kapit\u0101la aizpl\u016b\u0161anu. Jap\u0101\u0146u institucion\u0101lie investori, tostarp pensiju fondi un apdro\u0161in\u0101t\u0101ji, ir ieguld\u012bju\u0161i triljoniem \u0101rvalstu oblig\u0101ciju tirgos, \u012bpa\u0161i ASV Valsts kase un Eiropas vald\u012bbu par\u0101dos. Ta\u010du, pat nedaudz paaugstinoties viet\u0113j\u0101m oblig\u0101ciju likm\u0113m, \u0161is stimuli samazin\u0101s. Rezult\u0101ts ir potenci\u0101ls \u0101rvalstu oblig\u0101ciju pirkumu samazin\u0101jums, ko daudzi ekonomisti d\u0113v\u0113 par Jap\u0101nas “kapit\u0101la repatri\u0101ciju”. Kad viet\u0113j\u0101s likmes ir zemas, Jap\u0101nas institucion\u0101lie investori parasti mekl\u0113 lab\u0101kus ien\u0101kumus \u0101rzem\u0113s, bie\u017ei vien ASV Valsts kase, Eiropas vald\u012bbas oblig\u0101cij\u0101s vai jaunatt\u012bst\u012bbas tirgu par\u0101dos. Ta\u010du, paaugstinoties Jap\u0101nas likm\u0113m, \u0161is stimuli v\u0101jin\u0101s. Pat nelielas izmai\u0146as relat\u012bvajos ien\u0101kumos var ietekm\u0113t portfe\u013ca sadal\u012bjumu, palielinot risku, ka kapit\u0101ls tiks repatri\u0113ts atpaka\u013c uz Jap\u0101nas akt\u012bviem. \u0160\u012b dinamika jau ir redzama sa\u0161aurino\u0161aj\u0101s ienes\u012bguma at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bb\u0101s. Starp\u012bba starp 10 gadu ASV Valsts kases un Jap\u0101nas vald\u012bbas oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgumu ir sarukusi l\u012bdz 2,12 procentpunktiem, kas ir zem\u0101kais l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 2022. gada marta. Starp\u012bba starp 10 gadu V\u0101cijas Bund un Jap\u0101nas vald\u012bbas oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgumu ir samazin\u0101jusies l\u012bdz 0,85 procentpunktiem, kas ir zem\u0101kais r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101js vair\u0101k nek\u0101 tr\u012bs gadu laik\u0101. Kam\u0113r \u0161\u012bs at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bbas sa\u0161aurin\u0101s, Jap\u0101nas investori var s\u0101kt novirz\u012bt kapit\u0101lu atpaka\u013c uz m\u0101j\u0101m, atst\u0101jot glob\u0101los oblig\u0101ciju tirgus, lai absorb\u0113tu \u0161o izmai\u0146u.<\/p>\n
Nepiln\u012bbas glob\u0101laj\u0101s likm\u0113s<\/p>\n
Oblig\u0101ciju tirgi jau ir s\u0101ku\u0161i rea\u0123\u0113t. V\u0101cijas 30 gadu oblig\u0101ciju ienes\u012bgums piektdien p\u0113c BoJ l\u0113muma pieauguma sasniedza 3,51%, kas ir augst\u0101kais l\u012bmenis kop\u0161 2011. gada j\u016blija. \u0160\u0101ds solis Eiropas liel\u0101kaj\u0101 ekonomik\u0101, kas bie\u017ei tiek uzskat\u012bta par pasaules fisk\u0101lo enkuru, ir br\u012bdin\u0101juma sign\u0101ls. Risks neaprobe\u017eojas ar Eiropu. Pieaugo\u0161\u0101s Jap\u0101nas likmes apdraud glob\u0101lo invest\u012bciju pl\u016bsmu, \u012bpa\u0161i caur “j\u0113nas kar\u0101tav\u012bru” tirdzniec\u012bbas atvieglo\u0161anu. Ar l\u0113to finans\u0113jumu, ko nodro\u0161ina Jap\u0101nas \u013coti zemas likmes, investori jau sen ir izmantoju\u0161i j\u0113nu, lai finans\u0113tu likmes uz ienes\u012bg\u0101kiem akt\u012bviem \u0101rzem\u0113s. \u0160\u012b strat\u0113\u0123ija, kas desmitiem gadu ir bijusi veiksm\u012bga, tagad ir pak\u013cauta spiedienam. Paaugstinoties Jap\u0101nas likm\u0113m, j\u0113nas aiz\u0146em\u0161an\u0101s priek\u0161roc\u012bbas k\u013c\u016bst maz\u0101k pievilc\u012bgas glob\u0101lajiem investoriem. Rezult\u0101ts var\u0113tu b\u016bt glob\u0101lo kred\u012btu un akciju tirgu deleveraging vilnis, izraisot nep\u0101rdom\u0101tu ienes\u012bgumu pieaugumu. Lai gan likmju paaugstin\u0101\u0161anas temps, visticam\u0101k, paliks pak\u0101penisks, virziens ir skaidrs. BoJ vairs nav att\u012bst\u012bt\u0101s pasaules m\u016b\u017e\u012bgais “balodis”. Investoriem zi\u0146ojums ir vienk\u0101r\u0161s un arvien gr\u016bt\u0101k ignor\u0113jams: Jap\u0101na atkal ir svar\u012bga.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bankas “no ultra-br\u012bv\u0101s” politikas pagrieziena sign\u0101li Jap\u0101nas Banka (BoJ) ir veikusi v\u0113sturisku pav\u0113rsienu, pace\u013cot procentu likmes uz augst\u0101ko…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80040,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[77,76,20081,20083,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,4049,20082,549],"class_list":{"0":"post-80039","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-bizness","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-japanas-banka","11":"tag-kapitala-repatriacija","12":"tag-latvia","13":"tag-latvian","14":"tag-latviesu","15":"tag-latviesu-valoda","16":"tag-latviesuvaloda","17":"tag-latvija","18":"tag-lv","19":"tag-monetara-politika","20":"tag-obligaciju-tirgus","21":"tag-procentu-likmes"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115746708126226535","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80039\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}