ASV kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bts atmasko Krem\u013ca propagandiskos skait\u013cus<\/p>\n
ASV Kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bta (ISW) anal\u012bti\u0137i secin\u0101ju\u0161i, ka Krievija 2025. gad\u0101 iev\u0113rojami p\u0101rsp\u012bl\u0113 savus pan\u0101kumus Ukrainas teritorijas ie\u0146em\u0161an\u0101. \u0160\u0101ds secin\u0101jums n\u0101k no vair\u0101ku augstu amatpersonu, tostarp Krievijas diktatora Vladimira Putina un \u0122ener\u0101l\u0161t\u0101ba priek\u0161nieka Val\u0113rija Gerasimova, izteikumiem, kas neatbilst kaujas lauka realit\u0101tei, v\u0113sta mediji. K\u0101 zi\u0146o av\u012bze Diena, Krem\u013ca narat\u012bvs cen\u0161as rad\u012bt iespaidu par it k\u0101 strauju ofens\u012bvu un Ukrainas aizsardz\u012bbas sabrukumu, ta\u010du ISW dati liecina par l\u0113nu un d\u0101rgu virz\u012bbu.<\/p>\n
Nesakrit\u012bba starp deklar\u0113to un faktisko ie\u0146\u0113mumu apjomu<\/p>\n
Apgalvojumi par ieg\u016bto teritoriju apjomu sv\u0101rst\u0101s. 18. decembr\u012b Val\u0113rijs Gerasimovs pazi\u0146oja, ka kop\u0161 2025. gada s\u0101kuma Krievijas sp\u0113ki ir ie\u0146\u0113mu\u0161i vair\u0101k nek\u0101 6300 kvadr\u0101tkilometrus Ukrainas teritorijas. Jau dienu iepriek\u0161 Krievijas aizsardz\u012bbas ministrs Andrejs Belousovs min\u0113ja nedaudz maz\u0101ku skaitli \u2013 6000 kvadr\u0101tkilometru. ISW anal\u012bti\u0137u neatkar\u012bgie apr\u0113\u0137ini par periodu no 2025. gada s\u0101kuma uzr\u0101da iev\u0113rojami zem\u0101ku rezult\u0101tu \u2013 aptuveni 4700 kvadr\u0101tkilometru. \u0160\u012b at\u0161\u0137ir\u012bba liecina, ka pat Krievijas ofici\u0101lie l\u012bme\u0146i nevar saska\u0146ot kop\u012bgu inform\u0101ciju, vai ar\u012b m\u0113r\u0137tiec\u012bgi infl\u0113 datus.<\/p>\n
Pat Gerasimova min\u0113tais apjoms, ja tas tiktu pie\u0146emts par patiesu, veidotu tikai nedaudz vair\u0101k par 1% no kop\u0113j\u0101s Ukrainas plat\u012bbas. \u0160\u0101da statistika, anal\u012bti\u0137u v\u0113rt\u0113jum\u0101, atspogu\u013co Krievijas ofens\u012bvas l\u0113no tempu, kas ir krietni t\u0101lu no \u0101triem un iz\u0161\u0137iro\u0161iem pan\u0101kumiem, k\u0101dus cen\u0161as projic\u0113t Krievijas milit\u0101r\u0101 vad\u012bba.<\/p>\n
Konkr\u0113ti piem\u0113ri: Siverska un Kostjanti\u0146ivka<\/p>\n
Anal\u012bze sniedz prec\u012bz\u0101kus datus par atsevi\u0161\u0137iem kaujas ieguvumiem, kur starp\u012bba starp apgalvojumiem un realit\u0101ti ir \u012bpa\u0161i krasa. Piem\u0113ram, Vladimirs Putins apgalvoja, ka Krievijas sp\u0113ki piln\u012bb\u0101 kontrol\u0113 Siverskas pils\u0113tu Doneckas apgabal\u0101. Tom\u0113r ISW apstiprina tikai aptuveni 77% pils\u0113tas teritorijas ie\u0146em\u0161anu, kas noz\u012bm\u0113, ka c\u012b\u0146a par p\u0113d\u0113jo da\u013cu joproj\u0101m ir aktu\u0101la vai ar\u012b p\u0113d\u0113j\u0101 da\u013ca ir visgr\u016bt\u0101k ie\u0146emam\u0101.<\/p>\n
V\u0113l \u0161ok\u0113jo\u0161\u0101ks nesakrit\u012bbas gad\u012bjums ir ar Kostjanti\u0146ivku. Gerasimovs izteic\u0101s, ka Krievija kontrol\u0113 50% pils\u0113tas. ISW zi\u0146ojum\u0101 uzsv\u0113rts, ka nek\u0101di pier\u0101d\u012bjumi par tik b\u016btisku Krievijas progresu nepast\u0101v. Paties\u012bb\u0101, instit\u016bta apl\u0113ses r\u0101da, ka ie\u0146emta ir tikai aptuveni 1,6% pils\u0113tas teritorijas, un Krievijas karasp\u0113ka kl\u0101tb\u016btne nep\u0101rsniedz 5%. Pat pa\u0161i maksim\u0101listiskie Krievijas milit\u0101rie blogeri min skaitli par 11% ie\u0146emto teritoriju, kas joproj\u0101m ir krietni maz\u0101k nek\u0101 ofici\u0101lais pazi\u0146ojums.<\/p>\n
Psiholo\u0123isk\u0101 kara dimensija<\/p>\n
ISW anal\u012bti\u0137i nor\u0101da, ka \u0161\u0101di p\u0101rlieku uzp\u016bsti pazi\u0146ojumi kalpo k\u0101 intens\u012bva kognit\u012bv\u0101 kara da\u013ca. M\u0113r\u0137is ir iedvest Ukrainas vad\u012bbai un sabiedrotajiem p\u0101rliec\u012bbu par Ukrainas aizsardz\u012bbas neizb\u0113gamu sabrukumu un Krievijas uzvaras nenov\u0113r\u0161am\u012bbu. \u0160\u0101di narat\u012bvi tiek izplat\u012bti, lai rad\u012btu spiedienu uz Kijivu un t\u0101s Rietumu partneriem miera sarun\u0101s, \u012bpa\u0161i \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101, ka 2025. gada nogal\u0113 turpin\u0101s diskusijas par da\u017e\u0101diem miera pl\u0101nu projektiem un dro\u0161\u012bbas garantij\u0101m.<\/p>\n
Anal\u012bti\u0137i ar\u012b pie\u013cauj, ka Gerasimovs un Belousovs apzin\u0101ti atk\u0101rto vai nedaudz maina Putina teikto, lai \u0161ie narat\u012bvi sasniegtu pla\u0161\u0101ku starptautisko auditoriju, m\u0113\u0123inot ietekm\u0113t \u0101rpolitiskos l\u0113mumus un v\u0101jin\u0101t Rietumu atbalstu Kijivai.<\/p>\n
Konteksts: L\u0113na poz\u012bciju c\u012b\u0146a un izmaksas<\/p>\n
Krievijas uzbrukuma temps Ukrain\u0101 ilgsto\u0161i ir bijis l\u0113ns un notur\u012bbas c\u012b\u0146\u0101. Neskatoties uz intens\u012bvu iesaukumu un resursu ieguld\u012b\u0161anu, piem\u0113ram, Pokrovskas virzien\u0101, rezult\u0101ti, m\u0113rot kilometros vai procentos no pils\u0113tas plat\u012bbas, ir minim\u0101li, sal\u012bdzinot ar ieguld\u012btajiem zaud\u0113jumiem person\u0101l\u0101 un tehnik\u0101. \u0160\u0101da situ\u0101cija liecina, ka Krievija nevar \u0101tri sasniegt liel\u0101ka m\u0113roga strat\u0113\u0123iskos m\u0113r\u0137us, piem\u0113ram, piln\u012bgu Doneckas apgabala ie\u0146em\u0161anu.<\/p>\n
\u0160is ISW br\u012bdin\u0101jums ir b\u016btisks Latvijas un citu atbalsto\u0161o valstu politikas veidot\u0101jiem, jo tas \u013cauj kritiski izv\u0113rt\u0113t Krem\u013ca deklar\u0113t\u0101s poz\u012bcijas un pie\u0146emt l\u0113mumus par turpm\u0101ko atbalsta intensit\u0101ti un veidu, balstoties uz objekt\u012bv\u0101ku izpratni par situ\u0101ciju tie\u0161i frontes l\u012bniju krustpunktos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ASV kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bts atmasko Krem\u013ca propagandiskos skait\u013cus ASV Kara p\u0113tniec\u012bbas instit\u016bta (ISW) anal\u012bti\u0137i secin\u0101ju\u0161i, ka Krievija 2025.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82067,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,3905,32,33,22,7359,2545,20709,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,20710,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-82066","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-doneckas-apgabals","13":"tag-featured-news","14":"tag-featurednews","15":"tag-headlines","16":"tag-isw","17":"tag-kremla-propaganda","18":"tag-krievijas-ofensiva","19":"tag-latest-news","20":"tag-latestnews","21":"tag-latvia","22":"tag-latvian","23":"tag-latviesu","24":"tag-latviesu-valoda","25":"tag-latviesuvaloda","26":"tag-latvija","27":"tag-lv","28":"tag-news","29":"tag-popularakas-zinas","30":"tag-popularakaszinas","31":"tag-top-stories","32":"tag-topstories","33":"tag-ukraina-kars","34":"tag-world","35":"tag-world-news","36":"tag-worldnews","37":"tag-zinas","38":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115758512521608606","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82066\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}