Geopolitiskie notikumi nesp\u0113j ietekm\u0113t cenas<\/p>\n
Nosl\u0113dzoties 2025. gadam, pasaules naftas tirgus ir izr\u0101d\u012bjis negaid\u012btu notur\u012bbu pret virkni \u0123eopolitisku satricin\u0101jumu. Anal\u012bti\u0137i nov\u0113ro, ka notikumi, kas iepriek\u0161\u0113jos gados dro\u0161i vien izrais\u012btu strauju cenu l\u0113k\u0161anu, tagad izraisa tikai sal\u012bdzino\u0161i nelielas sv\u0101rst\u012bbas. Ekonomikas anal\u012bti\u0137is no Reuters Rons Busso uzskata, ka \u0161\u012b situ\u0101cija k\u013c\u016bst par jaunu normu, lai gan pasaules vide k\u013c\u016bst arvien nedro\u0161\u0101ka.<\/p>\n
Kop\u0161 gada s\u0101kuma ir notiku\u0161i vair\u0101ki notikumi, kas teor\u0113tiski var\u0113ja rad\u012bt milz\u012bgu nestabilit\u0101ti. Busso min Donalda Trampa atgrie\u0161anos ASV prezidenta amat\u0101 un vi\u0146a uzs\u0101kt\u0101s tirdzniec\u012bbas, politisk\u0101s un diplom\u0101tisk\u0101s iniciat\u012bvas. T\u0101pat ar\u012b Izra\u0113las triecieni pret Ir\u0101nas objektiem rad\u012bja ba\u017eas par pilnm\u0113roga konflikta eskal\u0101ciju Tuvo Austrumu re\u0123ion\u0101 un iev\u0113rojamu pasaules naftas pieg\u0101\u017eu samazin\u0101\u0161anos.<\/p>\n
Neraugoties uz ba\u017e\u0101m, ka Ir\u0101nas iesaiste kar\u0101 un iesp\u0113jam\u0101 Ormuzas \u0161auruma blo\u0137\u0113\u0161ana var\u0113tu pacelt naftas cenas l\u012bdz tr\u012bsciparu apjomam, Brent markas naftas kot\u0113jumu griesti sasniedza tikai 78,85 dol\u0101rus par barelu. \u012apa\u0161i j\u0101atz\u012bm\u0113, ka Ukrainas uzlidojumi Krievijas naftas p\u0101rstr\u0101des r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m (NPR) praktiski neatst\u0101ja ietekmi uz glob\u0101lo tirgu.<\/p>\n
Zemas sv\u0101rst\u012bbas liecina par tirgus neuztic\u012bbu<\/p>\n
Visp\u0101r\u0113j\u0101 naftas cenu sv\u0101rst\u012bbu amplit\u016bda, kas turas 60 l\u012bdz 80 dol\u0101ru diapazon\u0101, var\u0113tu liecin\u0101t par pieaugo\u0161u skepsi tirgus dal\u012bbnieku vid\u016b par valstu gatav\u012bbu tie\u0161i iejaukties naftas tirdzniec\u012bb\u0101.<\/p>\n
P\u0101rliec\u012bba balst\u0101s uz pla\u0161ajiem kr\u0101jumiem<\/p>\n
\u0160\u012b m\u0113ren\u012bbas galven\u0101 atsl\u0113ga, p\u0113c anal\u012bti\u0137a dom\u0101m, ir milz\u012bgie naftas un g\u0101zes kr\u0101jumi pasaul\u0113. Apjomu uztur\u0113\u0161ana vai pieaugums no galvenajiem ra\u017eot\u0101jiem, jaunu sp\u0113l\u0113t\u0101ju ien\u0101k\u0161ana tirg\u016b un OPEC+ ieviesto ieguves ierobe\u017eojumu pak\u0101peniska atcel\u0161ana ir b\u016btiski main\u012bju\u0161as dinamiku, kas tika nov\u0113rota v\u0113l nesen.<\/p>\n
Starptautisk\u0101 Ener\u0123\u0113tikas a\u0123ent\u016bra (IEA) prognoz\u0113, ka jau 2026. gad\u0101 pasaules naftas tirg\u016b var\u0113tu veidoties teju \u010detru miljonu barelu diennakts p\u0101rsniedzums. \u0160\u0101di apst\u0101k\u013ci mazina ak\u016btu pieg\u0101\u017eu tr\u016bkuma risku.<\/p>\n
Br\u012bdin\u0101jumi par sl\u0113pto risku<\/p>\n
Tom\u0113r situ\u0101cija nav bez riska. Oaktree Capital Management dibin\u0101t\u0101js Hovards Marks atg\u0101dina, ka klusums bie\u017ei vien ir maldino\u0161s. Risks visbie\u017e\u0101k tiek v\u0113rt\u0113ts k\u0101 zems tie\u0161i taj\u0101 br\u012bd\u012b, kad tas ir visliel\u0101kais. Naftas tirg\u016b \u0161is drauds var\u0113tu materializ\u0113ties, ja, piem\u0113ram, OPEC+ nolemj atsaukt pl\u0101nus par ieguves apjomu palielin\u0101\u0161anu, vai ar\u012b Ir\u0101nas un Izra\u0113las konflikts atkal uzliesmo, izraisot re\u0101lu pied\u0101v\u0101juma tr\u016bkumu.<\/p>\n
Neskatoties uz to, a\u0123ent\u016bras secina, ka vien\u012bgi zi\u0146as vairs nav pietiekamas, lai b\u016btiski ietekm\u0113tu naftas cenas.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
J\u0101piebilst, ka iepriek\u0161 glob\u0101l\u0101s izejvielu tirdzniec\u012bbas uz\u0146\u0113muma Trafigura anal\u012bti\u0137i prognoz\u0113ja, ka 2026. gad\u0101 pasaules naftas tirgu sagaida supeirsl\u0101gs, kas var\u0113tu novest pie jauna cenu krituma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Geopolitiskie notikumi nesp\u0113j ietekm\u0113t cenas Nosl\u0113dzoties 2025. gadam, pasaules naftas tirgus ir izr\u0101d\u012bjis negaid\u012btu notur\u012bbu pret virkni \u0123eopolitisku…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85351,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,32,33,4125,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,9600,21628,15318,20,21627,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":["post-85350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-zinas-no-arvalstim","tag-aktualitates","tag-arvalstim","tag-breaking-news","tag-breakingnews","tag-featured-news","tag-featurednews","tag-geopolitika","tag-headlines","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-latvia","tag-latvian","tag-latviesu","tag-latviesu-valoda","tag-latviesuvaloda","tag-latvija","tag-lv","tag-naftas-cenas","tag-naftas-krajumi","tag-naftas-tirgus","tag-news","tag-opec","tag-popularakas-zinas","tag-popularakaszinas","tag-top-stories","tag-topstories","tag-world","tag-world-news","tag-worldnews","tag-zinas","tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115776572860288713","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85350\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}