Krievijas lielo uz\u0146\u0113mumu vad\u012bt\u0101ji ce\u013c trauksmi: p\u0113c Krievijas pilna m\u0113roga iebrukuma Ukrain\u0101 fiks\u0113ts ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjomu kritums. Stingr\u0101kas sankcijas, pieaugo\u0161\u0101s kred\u012btu procentu likmes un strauj\u0101 ekonomikas lejupsl\u012bde p\u0113c bru\u0146ojuma ra\u017eo\u0161anas buma izrais\u012bju\u0161i Krievijas r\u016bpniec\u012bbas kr\u012bzi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik\u0101 recesija<\/p>\n
Uz\u0146\u0113mumu 2025. gada darb\u012bbas rezult\u0101ti izr\u0101d\u012bju\u0161ies slikt\u0101kie kop\u0161 1998. gada, liecina Krievijas Zin\u0101t\u0146u akad\u0113mijas Ekonomisk\u0101s prognoz\u0113\u0161anas instit\u016bta (\u0418\u041d\u041f \u0420\u0410\u041d) valsts liel\u0101ko r\u016bpniec\u012bbas uz\u0146\u0113mumu vad\u012bt\u0101ju aptaujas dati. Produkcijas piepras\u012bjuma kritums ir liel\u0101ks nek\u0101 2009. gada glob\u0101l\u0101s finan\u0161u kr\u012bzes laik\u0101 un p\u0113c sankciju piem\u0113ro\u0161anas par Krimas aneksiju 2015. gad\u0101.<\/p>\n
\u201cS\u0101kotn\u0113ji r\u016bpniec\u012bba Krievijas \u201cekonomikas m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101s atdzi\u0161anas periodu\u201d pie\u0146\u0113ma ar izpratni, bet 2025. gad\u0101 paciet\u012bba beidz\u0101s,\u201d p\u0113t\u012bjumu cit\u0113 Kremlim loj\u0101lais laikraksts \u201cKommersant\u201d. \u0160ogad ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjomi samazin\u0101ju\u0161ies l\u012bdz zem\u0101kajam l\u012bmenim 16 gadu laik\u0101, bet r\u016bpniec\u012bbas produkcijas apjoma indekss ir zem\u0101kais kop\u0161 2009. gada.<\/p>\n
P\u0113c diviem Krievijas kara ekonomikas uzplaukuma gadiem, kad no Krievijas bud\u017eeta da\u017e\u0101dos milit\u0101ri r\u016bpniecisk\u0101 kompleksa megaprojektos un bru\u0146ojuma ra\u017eo\u0161anas uz\u0146\u0113mumos tika iepludin\u0101ti desmitiem triljonu rub\u013cu, Krievijas ekonomika ir non\u0101kusi depresij\u0101, koment\u0113 izdevums \u201cThe Moscow Times\u201d. Iek\u0161zemes kopprodukta pieaugums ir pal\u0113nin\u0101jies gandr\u012bz l\u012bdz nullei, r\u016bpniec\u012bba iesl\u012bgusi recesij\u0101. Pat Krievijas feder\u0101l\u0101 statistikas dienesta \u201cRosstat\u201d ofici\u0101lie dati apstiprina, ka ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjomi sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar 2024. gadu samazin\u0101ju\u0161ies par 0,7 procentiem.<\/p>\n
Ra\u017eo\u0161anas br\u012bvais kritiens<\/p>\n
Nopietn\u0101s gr\u016bt\u012bb\u0101s non\u0101ku\u0161i 25% Krievijas apstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bbas nozaru uz\u0146\u0113mumu, kas aizvad\u012btaj\u0101 gad\u0101 nodro\u0161in\u0101ja aptuveni 55% ie\u0146\u0113mumu, \u201cda\u017eos ra\u017eo\u0161anas segmentos piedz\u012bvots br\u012bvais kritiens\u201d, koment\u0113 \u201cTelegram\u201d kan\u0101ls \u201cSpydell finance\u201d. V\u0113rojamas strauji negat\u012bvas tendences: automobi\u013cu r\u016bpniec\u012bbas nozares kritums novembr\u012b bija 35,3%, kur fiks\u0113ta slikt\u0101k\u0101 situ\u0101cija kop\u0161 2009. un 2022. gada kr\u012bz\u0113m. Darbgaldu, ma\u0161\u012bnu un iek\u0101rtu ra\u017eo\u0161an\u0101 – 14,6% kritums, elektroiek\u0101rtu ra\u017eo\u0161an\u0101 – 12,4%, metalur\u0123ijas nozar\u0113 novembr\u012b fiks\u0113ts 4,2% kritums – 2017. gada s\u0101kuma l\u012bmen\u012b. \u0136\u012bmiskaj\u0101 r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101 stagn\u0101cija iest\u0101jusies kop\u0161 2023. gada vidus – 2,7% kritums. Naftas p\u0101rstr\u0101des nozar\u0113 0,3% k\u0101pums, bet sasniedzot tikai 2018. gada s\u0101kuma l\u012bmeni. Divu gadu laik\u0101 fiks\u0113ta stagn\u0101cija p\u0101rtikas r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101 – 1,6 % kritums.<\/p>\n
2025. gada nogal\u0113 aptuveni 80% Krievijas apstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bbas uz\u0146\u0113mumu biju\u0161as liel\u0101kas vai maz\u0101kas probl\u0113mas – no \u201cpie\u0146emam\u0101m l\u012bdz kritisk\u0101m\u201d, un tikai 20% piedz\u012bvoja stabilu izaugsmi, pateicoties valsts pas\u016bt\u012bjumiem, koment\u0113 kan\u0101ls. Augo\u0161\u0101s nozares pagaid\u0101m kompens\u0113 negat\u012bv\u0101s tendences p\u0101r\u0113jos 75-80% r\u016bpniec\u012bbas segmentu. \u0145emot v\u0113r\u0101 lejupsl\u012bdes apm\u0113rus, r\u016bpniec\u012bbas civilais sektors jau ir non\u0101cis kr\u012bzes situ\u0101cij\u0101 – to nosaka vair\u0101k nek\u0101 se\u0161us m\u0113ne\u0161us ilg\u0101 negat\u012bv\u0101 dinamika.<\/p>\n
Bankroti autop\u0101rvad\u0101jumu nozar\u0113 <\/p>\n
Piepras\u012bjuma kritums un ekonomikas lejupsl\u012bde ir nokdauns kravas autop\u0101rvad\u0101jumu uz\u0146\u0113mumiem un kravas automa\u0161\u012bnu ra\u017eot\u0101jiem. L\u012bdz pat 40% kravas automa\u0161\u012bnu ir d\u012bkst\u0101v\u0113, teikts Krievijas Ekonomikas augstskolas Att\u012bst\u012bbas centra (\u0426\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0438\u044f \u0412\u0428\u042d) zi\u0146ojum\u0101. Tirgus dal\u012bbnieki nor\u0101da, ka, sal\u012bdzinot ar 2024. gadu, autop\u0101rvad\u0101jumu piepras\u012bjums samazin\u0101jies par aptuveni tre\u0161da\u013cu. \u201cRosstat\u201d dati: kravu p\u0101rvad\u0101jumu tarifi 2025. gad\u0101 ir par 7,4% augst\u0101ki nek\u0101 pag\u0101ju\u0161ogad. 2024.-2025. gada mij\u0101 likmes s\u0101ka kristies atbilsto\u0161i piepras\u012bjumam, savuk\u0101rt p\u0101rvad\u0101t\u0101ju izmaksas turpin\u0101ja pieaugt, izraisot masveida autokravu p\u0101rvad\u0101t\u0101ju bankrotus: ap 7000 transporta uz\u0146\u0113mumu (7-10% tirgus dal\u012bbnieku) pa\u0161laik atrodas bankrota vai likvid\u0101cijas proces\u0101. N\u0101kamgad v\u0113l aptuveni 10% non\u0101ks finansi\u0101l\u0101 riska situ\u0101cij\u0101, un nozare tuvojas br\u012bdim, kad p\u0101rvad\u0101t\u0101ju bankroti var\u0113tu p\u0101raugt sist\u0113misk\u0101 kr\u012bz\u0113.<\/p>\n
Krievijas naftas nozare k\u013c\u016bst nerentabla<\/p>\n
Naftas cenu straujais kritums un atlaides pasaules tirg\u016b padara Krievijas naftas eksportu par nerentablu biznesu. ASV piem\u0113rot\u0101s sankcijas \u201cRos\u0146eftj\u201d un \u201cLukoil\u201d graujo\u0161i ietekm\u0113 vado\u0161o Krievijas naftas ieguves uz\u0146\u0113mumu finanses – t\u012br\u0101 pe\u013c\u0146a 2025. gad\u0101 samazin\u0101jusies divas l\u012bdz tr\u012bs reizes. \u201cUrals\u201d markas j\u0113lnaftas cena nesedz ieguld\u012bt\u0101 kapit\u0101la faktisk\u0101s izmaksas vair\u0101k\u0101s naftas atradn\u0113s, zi\u0146u a\u0123ent\u016brai \u201cReuters\u201d past\u0101st\u012bja divi inform\u0113ti avoti uz\u0146\u0113mumos. A\u0123ent\u016bras \u201cArgus\u201d dati liecina, ka decembra vid\u016b Krievijas galven\u0101 eksporta j\u0113lnaftas marka tika tirgota apm\u0113ram par 34-36 USD par barelu, kas ir zem\u0101k\u0101 cena kop\u0161 pand\u0113mijas laikiem, savuk\u0101rt 23-25 USD atlaides par barelu ir liel\u0101k\u0101s kop\u0161 Krievijas pilna m\u0113roga iebrukuma Ukrain\u0101. Vair\u0101kas pieg\u0101des \u0136\u012bnas naftas p\u0101rstr\u0101des r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m tika tirgotas ar 35 USD atlaidi. \u201cReuters\u201d aptauj\u0101tie tirgus eksperti apgalvo, ka 40 USD \u201cUrals\u201d barela cena ar gr\u016bt\u012bb\u0101m kompens\u0113 naftas ieguves un transporta izmaksas.<\/p>\n
\u201cKrievijas naftas<\/a> nozar\u0113 nodok\u013cu slogs ir aptuveni 65%, pe\u013c\u0146a ir ~ 14 USD, kas nosedz 3-4 USD urbuma izmaksas un 5-7 USD naftas pieg\u0101dei. Ir visai ap\u0161aub\u0101mi, ka b\u016bs iesp\u0113jams atg\u016bt visus ieguld\u012bjumus, kapit\u0101lizdevumu atmaksu var vien\u012bgi atlikt. Da\u017eas atradnes att\u0101los Krievijas re\u0123ionos ar augstu naftas ieguves pa\u0161izmaksu var\u0113tu k\u013c\u016bt nerentablas,\u201d skaidro invest\u012bciju uz\u0146\u0113muma \u201c\u0411\u041a\u0421\u201d anal\u012bti\u0137is Kirils Bahtins. Joproj\u0101m pelno\u0161as ir atradnes ar zem\u0101m ekspluat\u0101cijas izmaks\u0101m, liel\u0101m rezerv\u0113m, net\u0101lu no naftas cauru\u013cvadiem, piem\u0113ram, Volgas re\u0123ion\u0101 un Rietumsib\u012brij\u0101, nor\u0101da Ener\u0123\u0113tikas un finan\u0161u instit\u016bta anal\u012bti\u0137is Maksims \u0160evirenkovs.<\/p>\n \u201cNaftas ieguves nozare non\u0101kusi kr\u012bz\u0113, un jaun\u0101s sankcijas \u0161o procesu pa\u0101trin\u0101s,\u201d koment\u0113 Kreigs Kenedijs, H\u0101rvarda universit\u0101tes Krievijas un Eir\u0101zijas studiju centra eksperts, biju\u0161ais \u201cBank of America\u201d viceprezidents. \u201cSankcij\u0101m pak\u013cautajai Krievijas naftai pirc\u0113ju nav daudz: 1,6 l\u012bdz 2,8 miljoniem barelu dien\u0101 tirg\u016b joproj\u0101m nav stabila piepras\u012bjuma, kam\u0113r tankku\u0123os j\u016br\u0101 uzkr\u0101jas lieli nep\u0101rdotas naftas apjomi.\u201d<\/p>\n Vald\u012bba gatavojas banku kr\u012bzei <\/p>\n \u201cKrievijai draud banku kr\u012bze, jo pieaug kred\u012btsaist\u012bbu neizpildes apjomi, ekonomika pal\u0113nin\u0101s, bet Rietumu sankcijas pastiprin\u0101s, skarot valsts liel\u0101kos naftas uz\u0146\u0113mumus,\u201d raksta \u201cTelegram\u201d kan\u0101ls \u201c\u0417\u0430\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043c\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u201d, koment\u0113jot \u201cThe Washington Post\u201d publik\u0101ciju. Augsta Krievijas vald\u012bbas amatpersona, kura v\u0113l\u0113jas palikt anon\u012bma, ASV laikrakstam apgalvo, ka Krievij\u0101 gaid\u0101ma banku un maks\u0101jumu kr\u012bze, jo uz\u0146\u0113mumi vairs nesp\u0113s sav\u0101 starp\u0101 nor\u0113\u0137in\u0101ties. \u201cBanku kr\u012bze ir iesp\u0113jama. Nemaks\u0101\u0161anas kr\u012bze ir iesp\u0113jama. Es pat dom\u0101t negribu par kara turpin\u0101\u0161anos vai eskal\u0101ciju,\u201d sac\u012bja ier\u0113dnis. Bru\u0146ojuma ra\u017eo\u0161anai 2022.-2024. gad\u0101 Krievijas bankas izsniedza milzu kred\u012btus Krievijas milit\u0101ri tehnisk\u0101 kompleksa r\u016bpn\u012bc\u0101m, kas banku sist\u0113mai var k\u013c\u016bt par \u201cbumbu ar laika degli\u201d. Krievijas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas statistika liecina, ka \u0161ie aizdevumi sasniedz 202 miljardus ASV dol\u0101ru, raksta \u201cWP\u201d. Kreigs Kenedijs: \u201c\u0160is ir milz\u012bgs un slikti regul\u0113ts banku sist\u0113mas \u0113nu par\u0101ds.\u201d <\/p>\n Pagaid\u0101m Krievijas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas statistika lielas probl\u0113mas neuzr\u0101da: kav\u0113to korporat\u012bvo kred\u012btu \u012bpatsvars tiek l\u0113sts 5% apm\u0113r\u0101. Tom\u0113r problem\u0101tiskie par\u0101di p\u0101rsniedz 11% un naudas izteiksm\u0113 sasniegu\u0161i 10,4 triljonus RUR (~ 133 mljrd. USD), kas piel\u012bdzin\u0101ms diviem Maskavas pils\u0113tas gada bud\u017eetiem (2025. gada Maskavas bud\u017eets – 5,6 triljoni RUR jeb 72 mljrd. USD). Summ\u0101 iek\u013cauti ar atvieglotiem nosac\u012bjumiem izsniegtie kred\u012bti, ko bankas bija spiestas akcept\u0113t, jo bru\u0146ojuma ra\u017eo\u0161anas uz\u0146\u0113mumi tos nesp\u0113ja savlaic\u012bgi apmaks\u0101t. \u201cUz\u0146\u0113mumu finansi\u0101lais st\u0101voklis pasliktin\u0101s, eksporta nozares zaud\u0113 ie\u0146\u0113mumus piepras\u012bjuma un cenu krituma d\u0113\u013c,\u201d skaidro Makroekonomisk\u0101s anal\u012bzes un \u012bstermi\u0146a prognoz\u0113\u0161anas centra (\u0426\u041c\u0410\u041a\u041f) p\u0113tnieks Rinats Ahmetovs. Banku statistika probl\u0113mas m\u0113rogu neatspogu\u013co, jo liela da\u013ca \u201cslikto par\u0101du\u201d tiek sl\u0113pta ar kred\u012btu p\u0101rstruktur\u0113\u0161anu. Par\u0101du kr\u012bze korporat\u012bvaj\u0101 segment\u0101 var s\u0101kties jau 2026. gada tre\u0161aj\u0101 vai ceturtaj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b, prognoz\u0113 eksperts.<\/p>\n Pa\u0161i p\u016bta, pa\u0161i dega<\/p>\n Atbilsto\u0161i KF Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas datiem, 2025. gada decembra vid\u016b kred\u012bt\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju skaits Krievij\u0101 bijis 49,7 miljoni – katrs tre\u0161ais jeb divi no trim iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem darbasp\u0113j\u012bg\u0101 vecum\u0101 ir par\u0101d\u0101 bank\u0101m vai \u0101tro kred\u012btu firm\u0101m. Krievijas Banka atkl\u0101jusi datus par 1,5 miljonu fizisko personu maks\u0101tnesp\u0113ju, savuk\u0101rt feder\u0101lais tiesu izpild\u012bt\u0101ju dienests (\u0424\u0421\u0421\u041f) publisko inform\u0101ciju, ka 10 miljoniem KF pilso\u0146u da\u017e\u0101du par\u0101dsaist\u012bbu d\u0113\u013c liegts izce\u013cot uz \u0101rzem\u0113m. Turkl\u0101t vald\u012bba to pasniedz k\u0101 \u201cprobl\u0113mu\u201d, jo \u201ciesp\u0113jama maks\u0101jumu kr\u012bze un ir apdraud\u0113ta finan\u0161u sist\u0113mas stabilit\u0101te\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cKrievijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju par\u0101dsaist\u012bbu pieaugums ir vald\u012bbas \u201cekonomikas transform\u0101cijas\u201d politikas rezult\u0101ts, savuk\u0101rt noguld\u012bjumu pieaugums – desmitiem triljonu rub\u013cu iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju kontos ir kredit\u0113\u0161anas buma meda\u013cas otra puse. 60 triljoni rub\u013cu (~ 768 miljardi USD) 1% noguld\u012bt\u0101ju kontos ir apm\u0113ram 50 miljonu kred\u012bt\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju \u201caizdevumi\u201d. Nedaudz vienk\u0101r\u0161ojot, pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju aktivit\u0101tes pieaugums 2022.-2023. gad\u0101 liel\u0101 m\u0113r\u0101 \u201cpasarg\u0101ja\u201d ekonomiku no recesijas, kam\u0113r vald\u012bba pump\u0113ja \u201cbud\u017eeta maks\u0101jumus priorit\u0101r\u0101s nozar\u0113s\u201d,\u201d koment\u0113 \u201cTelegram kan\u0101ls\u201d \u201c\u0414\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0433\u0438 \u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0441\u0435\u0446\u201d.<\/p>\n Finan\u0161u regulators savas k\u0101rtis izsp\u0113l\u0113ja eleganti: 2022. gada vasar\u0101 pazemin\u0101ja b\u0101zes likmi, un bankas s\u0101ka drud\u017eaini izsniegt aizdevumus – kred\u012bt\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju skaits kop\u0161 2022. gada pieauga par septi\u0146iem miljoniem, kam\u0113r vald\u012bba pludin\u0101ja bud\u017eeta naudu \u201capstr\u0101des r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101\u201d. Jau p\u0113c pusotra gada r\u016bpn\u012bcas darboj\u0101s ar pilnu jaudu, ta\u010du strauji pieauga ar\u012b cenas, jo \u201cra\u017eo\u0161anas restartam\u201d ar pat\u0113ri\u0146a ekonomiku nebija nek\u0101da sakara. Regulators nekav\u0113joties paaugstin\u0101ja likmi, lai uz\u0146\u0113mumi – \u201ckred\u012bt\u0146\u0113m\u0113ji\u201d nesp\u0113tu sevi \u201crefinans\u0113t\u201d un b\u016btu spiesti \u201cpalielin\u0101t produktivit\u0101ti\u201d, vienlaikus \u201csamazinot pat\u0113ri\u0146u\u201d, piel\u0101gojoties jaun\u0101s ekonomikas realit\u0101tei, kuras \u201ctransform\u0101ciju\u201d pa\u0161i bija apmaks\u0101ju\u0161i.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\tinfo<\/p>\n Uzzini pirmais
kas interesants noticis Latvij\u0101 un pasaul\u0113,
pievienojoties mums Telegram<\/a> vai Whatsapp<\/a> kan\u0101l\u0101<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Krievijas lielo uz\u0146\u0113mumu vad\u012bt\u0101ji ce\u013c trauksmi: p\u0113c Krievijas pilna m\u0113roga iebrukuma Ukrain\u0101 fiks\u0113ts ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjomu kritums. Stingr\u0101kas sankcijas,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89449,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-89448","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-latvia","18":"tag-latvian","19":"tag-latviesu","20":"tag-latviesu-valoda","21":"tag-latviesuvaloda","22":"tag-latvija","23":"tag-lv","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-popularakas-zinas","26":"tag-popularakaszinas","27":"tag-top-stories","28":"tag-topstories","29":"tag-world","30":"tag-world-news","31":"tag-worldnews","32":"tag-zinas","33":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115806677409753039","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89448\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}