Infl\u0101cijas prognozes atspogu\u013co banku anal\u012bti\u0137u gaidas par 2026. gadu<\/p>\n
Gada vid\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 n\u0101kamgad var\u0113tu sarukt l\u012bdz 2,4\u20133%, kas ir iev\u0113rojams samazin\u0101jums sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar \u0161ogad prognoz\u0113tajiem 3,7\u20133,8%. K\u0101 inform\u0113 port\u0101ls jauns.lv, \u0161\u012bs prognozes n\u0101k no aptauj\u0101tiem banku anal\u012bti\u0137iem, kuri nor\u0101da uz vair\u0101kiem faktoriem, kas veicin\u0101s cenu stabiliz\u0101ciju. Lai gan infl\u0101cija joproj\u0101m saglab\u0101sies virs Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas (ECB) noteikt\u0101 2% m\u0113r\u0137a, gaid\u0101m\u0101 tendence ir pozit\u012bva, nor\u0101dot uz ekonomikas pak\u0101penisku normaliz\u0113\u0161anos p\u0113c iepriek\u0161\u0113jo gadu cenu \u0161okiem. Anal\u012bti\u0137i sagaida, ka glob\u0101lie infl\u0101cijas mazin\u0101\u0161anas sp\u0113ki, tostarp \u0136\u012bnas eksporta cenu kritums, zem\u0101kas izejvielu un ener\u0123ijas cenas, k\u0101 ar\u012b m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta rad\u012btais efektivit\u0101tes pieaugums, pal\u012bdz\u0113s sapr\u0101t\u012bg\u0101 laika posm\u0101 atgriezt infl\u0101ciju tuv\u0101k noteiktajam m\u0113r\u0137im.<\/p>\n
Faktori, kas bremz\u0113s infl\u0101ciju<\/p>\n
\u201cSwedbank\u201d galven\u0101 ekonomiste L\u012bva Zorgenfreija skaidro, ka pat\u0113ri\u0146a cenas 2026. gad\u0101 augs l\u0113n\u0101k nek\u0101 gaid\u0101mais 3,8% \u0161ogad. Vi\u0146as bankas apl\u0113ses liecina, ka gada vid\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija var\u0113tu b\u016bt ap 3%. K\u0101 galvenos infl\u0101ciju bremz\u0113jo\u0161os faktorus Zorgenfreija min sam\u0113r\u0101 zemas pasaules naftas un g\u0101zes cenas, pak\u0101peniski sar\u016bko\u0161as glob\u0101l\u0101s p\u0101rtikas cenas, \u0136\u012bnas eksporta cenu kritumu un sp\u0113c\u012bgu eiro kursu. Lai gan kafijas cenas pasaul\u0113 joproj\u0101m ir augstas, p\u0101rtikas cenu k\u0101pumu Latvij\u0101 paredz\u0113ts bremz\u0113t ar pievienot\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas nodok\u013ca (PVN) likmes samazin\u0101jumu atsevi\u0161\u0137iem p\u0101rtikas produktiem. Tiek prognoz\u0113ts, ka p\u0101rtikas cenas 2026. gad\u0101 augs l\u012bdz\u012bg\u0101 temp\u0101 k\u0101 kop\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija, proti, krietni l\u0113n\u0101k nek\u0101 2025. gad\u0101. \u201cLuminor Bank\u201d ekonomists P\u0113teris Strauti\u0146\u0161 prognoz\u0113, ka vid\u0113jais cenu l\u012bmenis n\u0101kamgad var\u0113tu pieaugt par aptuveni 2,5%. Vi\u0146\u0161 nor\u0101da, ka liel\u0101kais devums infl\u0101cijas samazin\u0101jum\u0101 sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar 2025. gadu (kad cenas provizoriski pieauga par 3,8%) b\u016bs p\u0101rtikas cenas, kuru vid\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija var\u0113tu samazin\u0101ties no 6% \u0161ogad l\u012bdz aptuveni 1% 2026. gad\u0101. Strauti\u0146\u0161 ar\u012b atz\u012bm\u0113, ka 2025. gada izska\u0146\u0101 nov\u0113rotie pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101jiem labv\u0113l\u012bgie notikumi p\u0101rtikas izejvielu tirgos, piem\u0113ram, kvie\u0161u un da\u017e\u0101du eksotisko produktu, tostarp kakao un apels\u012bnu sulas, l\u0113t\u0101ka k\u013c\u016b\u0161ana, dos pozit\u012bvu efektu.<\/p>\n
Darba tirgus un algu pieaugums<\/p>\n
Lai gan infl\u0101cija tiek prognoz\u0113ta mazin\u0101ties, algu k\u0101pums Latvij\u0101 turpin\u0101sies, tom\u0113r gaid\u0101ms, ka tas b\u016bs nedaudz l\u0113n\u0101ks nek\u0101 iepriek\u0161\u0113jos gados. J\u0101\u0146a Kaz\u0101ka, Latvijas Bankas prezidenta, ieskat\u0101, sp\u0113c\u012bgais algu pieaugums joproj\u0101m uztur pakalpojumu cenu k\u0101pumu. Neskatoties uz ekonomikas izaugsmes progno\u017eu samazin\u0101jumu da\u017e\u0101d\u0101s instit\u016bcij\u0101s, darba tirgus Latvij\u0101 joproj\u0101m tiek raksturots k\u0101 saspringts ar zemu bezdarbu. Paredzams, ka algas vid\u0113ji palielin\u0101sies par aptuveni 6%, kas ir diezgan iev\u0113rojams pieaugums. Sal\u012bdzin\u0101jumam, 2025. gada otraj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b, sal\u012bdzinot ar 2024. gada attiec\u012bgo periodu, vid\u0113jais bruto atalgojums jau palielin\u0101j\u0101s par aptuveni 8%. Darba algas pieaugums ir viens no faktoriem, kas uztur pat\u0113ri\u0146u un rada spiedienu uz pakalpojumu cen\u0101m, tom\u0113r kopum\u0101 sagaid\u0101ms, ka iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju pirktsp\u0113ja uzlabosies zem\u0101kas infl\u0101cijas apst\u0101k\u013cos.<\/p>\n
Glob\u0101lie un iek\u0161\u0113jie riski<\/p>\n
Neskatoties uz pozit\u012bvaj\u0101m infl\u0101cijas prognoz\u0113m, past\u0101v ar\u012b riski, kas var\u0113tu ietekm\u0113t ekonomikas att\u012bst\u012bbu. \u201cSEB bankas\u201d makroekonomikas eksperts Dainis Ga\u0161puitis prognoz\u0113, ka 2026. gad\u0101 Latvij\u0101 gada vid\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija b\u016bs 2,4%, pretstat\u0101 3,7% 2025. gad\u0101. Vi\u0146\u0161 uzsver, ka glob\u0101lie infl\u0101cijas mazin\u0101\u0161anas sp\u0113ki \u0161obr\u012bd tiek uzskat\u012bti par pietiekami sp\u0113c\u012bgiem. Tom\u0113r nenoteikt\u012bba ASV \u0101r\u0113j\u0101s tirdzniec\u012bbas politikas jom\u0101 joproj\u0101m ir noz\u012bm\u012bgs risks Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmei. T\u0101pat past\u0101v iek\u0161\u0113jie riski, piem\u0113ram, izmai\u0146as likumdo\u0161an\u0101, kas var\u0113tu ietekm\u0113t ekonomiku. Tiek prognoz\u0113ts, ka, \u0146emot v\u0113r\u0101 tuvojo\u0161\u0101s v\u0113l\u0113\u0161anas, nodok\u013cu palielin\u0101\u0161ana, visticam\u0101k, nav sagaid\u0101ma. Glu\u017ei pret\u0113ji, ir pied\u0101v\u0101jums n\u0101kam\u0101 gada bud\u017eeta paket\u0113 samazin\u0101t pievienot\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas nodok\u013ca (PVN) likmi noteikt\u0101m p\u0101rtikas prec\u0113m, kas var\u0113tu sniegt nelielu pozit\u012bvu ietekmi uz pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju maci\u0146iem.<\/p>\n
N\u0101kotnes perspekt\u012bvas un monet\u0101r\u0101 politika<\/p>\n
Eiropas Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas (ECB) prognozes liecina, ka infl\u0101cija eirozon\u0101 turpin\u0101s samazin\u0101ties, sasniedzot 1,9% 2026. gad\u0101 un tuvojas 2% vid\u0113ja termi\u0146a m\u0113r\u0137im. Tas ir \u013c\u0101vis ECB saglab\u0101t galven\u0101s procentu likmes nemain\u012bgas. Paredzams, ka depoz\u012bta likme tiks atst\u0101ta 2% l\u012bmen\u012b. \u0160\u012b situ\u0101cija ir labv\u0113l\u012bga Latvijas kred\u012bt\u0146\u0113m\u0113jiem gan iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem, gan uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, jo liel\u0101k\u0101 da\u013ca kred\u012btsaist\u012bbu ir ar main\u012bgu procentu likmi. Neskatoties uz infl\u0101cijas mazin\u0101\u0161anos, Latvijas Banka prognoz\u0113, ka iek\u0161zemes cenu k\u0101pumu joproj\u0101m uztur\u0113s atalgojuma palielin\u0101\u0161ana un notur\u012bgi augstas p\u0101rtikas cenas. Latvijas Banka prognoz\u0113, ka 2026. gad\u0101 infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 var\u0113tu b\u016bt 3,2%, bet cit\u0101s prognoz\u0113s t\u0101 tiek paredz\u0113ta zem\u0101ka, sv\u0101rstoties ap 2,4-3%. \u0160\u012bs prognozes atspogu\u013co da\u017e\u0101du anal\u012bti\u0137u un instit\u016bciju viedok\u013cus, ta\u010du kopum\u0101 nor\u0101da uz stabiliz\u0101cijas tendenc\u0113m Latvijas ekonomik\u0101.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Infl\u0101cijas prognozes atspogu\u013co banku anal\u012bti\u0137u gaidas par 2026. gadu Gada vid\u0113j\u0101 infl\u0101cija Latvij\u0101 n\u0101kamgad var\u0113tu sarukt l\u012bdz 2,4\u20133%,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89776,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[12118,22700,77,76,4948,550,35,39,38,36,37,34,1045,40],"class_list":{"0":"post-89775","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bizness","8":"tag-2026-gads","9":"tag-banku-prognozes","10":"tag-bizness","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-ekonomikas-attistiba","13":"tag-inflacija","14":"tag-latvia","15":"tag-latvian","16":"tag-latviesu","17":"tag-latviesu-valoda","18":"tag-latviesuvaloda","19":"tag-latvija","20":"tag-latvijas-ekonomika","21":"tag-lv"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115808089127481751","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}