Krievijas ekonomikas recesijas iesp\u0113jam\u012bba strauji pieaug, liecina Kremlim un Krievijas vald\u012bbai tuv\u0101 Makroekonomisk\u0101s anal\u012bzes un \u012bstermi\u0146a prognoz\u0113\u0161anas anal\u012btisk\u0101 centra (\u0426\u041c\u0410\u041a\u041f) dati. Centra ieviestais recesijas indikators kop\u0161 2025. gada j\u016bnija p\u0101rsniedz kritisko 0,18 v\u0113rt\u012bbas slieksni un l\u012bdz \u0161im katru m\u0113nesi pieaug. Aizvad\u012bt\u0101 gada septembr\u012b indikators bija 0,24, oktobr\u012b \u2013 0,32. L\u012bdz ar to past\u0101v liela varb\u016bt\u012bba, ka jau 2026. gada vid\u016b Krievijas ekonomika non\u0101ks recesij\u0101, secin\u0101ts centra zi\u0146ojum\u0101 vald\u012bbai.<\/p>\n
Krievijas ekonomikas \u201ctr\u012bs va\u013ci\u201d <\/p>\n
Krievijas ekonomika<\/a> vienm\u0113r balst\u012bjusies uz \u201ctrim p\u012bl\u0101riem\u201d: energoresursu eksportu, zelta un \u0101rvalstu val\u016btas rezerv\u0113m un Nacion\u0101lo labkl\u0101j\u012bbas fondu (\u0424\u041d\u0411), koment\u0113 \u201cTelegram\u201d kan\u0101ls \u201cPravda Gerashchenko\u201d. Naftas un g\u0101zes eksporta ie\u0146\u0113mumi veido aptuveni 25% no Krievijas bud\u017eeta un ir galvenais ien\u0101kumu un Ukrainas kara finans\u0113\u0161anas avots. Kop\u0161 decembra vidus Krievijas vado\u0161\u0101s eksporta \u201cUrals\u201d markas j\u0113lnaftas cena ir zem\u0101kaj\u0101 l\u012bmen\u012b kop\u0161 kara s\u0101kuma – ap 35 USD par barelu, savuk\u0101rt 23-25 USD atlaides par \u201cUrals\u201d barelu ir liel\u0101k\u0101s kop\u0161 pilna m\u0113roga iebrukuma Ukrain\u0101. <\/p>\n 2022.\u202fgada febru\u0101r\u012b \u201cUrals\u201d cenas bija 80-90\u202fUSD par barelu. <\/p>\n Krievijas Nacion\u0101lais labkl\u0101j\u012bbas fonds strauji zaud\u0113 likv\u012bdos akt\u012bvus: 2022. gad\u0101 tie bija 113,5\u202fmiljardi, 2025. gad\u0101 – 51,6\u202fmiljardi USD, jo fonda l\u012bdzek\u013ci tika izmantoti bud\u017eeta defic\u012bta seg\u0161anai, \u012bpa\u0161i 2022.-2024.\u202fgad\u0101. <\/p>\n Lai \u0101tri aizl\u0101p\u012btu bud\u017eeta caurumus un stabiliz\u0113tu rubli<\/a>, Krievijas Centr\u0101l\u0101 banka 2025. gada novembra beig\u0101s viet\u0113j\u0101 tirg\u016b s\u0101ka p\u0101rdot zelta rezerves, jo piek\u013cuvi \u0101rvalstu tirgiem blo\u0137\u0113 sankcijas, liecina Ukrainas \u0100r\u0113j\u0101s izl\u016bko\u0161anas dienesta dati. Krievija savas rezerves, kas gadu desmitiem tika uzskat\u012btas par neaizskaram\u0101m, faktiski \u201cno\u0113d\u201d. Pat Krievijas pla\u0161sazi\u0146as l\u012bdzek\u013ci jau atkl\u0101ti zi\u0146o, ka ekonomika non\u0101kusi stagn\u0101cij\u0101. L\u012bdz 2025.\u202fgada beig\u0101m Ekonomisk\u0101s att\u012bst\u012bbas ministrijas pl\u0101notais 1% iek\u0161zemes kopprodukta (IKP) pieaugums nav sasniegts. R\u016bpniecisk\u0101s ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjoma samazin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s re\u0123istr\u0113ta vis\u0101s Krievijas ekonomikas civilaj\u0101s nozar\u0113s. Ra\u017eo\u0161ana samazin\u0101s pat milit\u0101raj\u0101 sektor\u0101, kas ir atkar\u012bgs no vald\u012bbas l\u012bgumiem un bud\u017eeta finans\u0113juma. <\/p>\n Vai Putinam<\/a> ir nauda karam? <\/p>\n Kop\u0161 pilna m\u0113roga iebrukuma s\u0101kuma Ukrain\u0101 katru gadu Krievija ir palielin\u0101jusi kara izdevumus. 2026. gada bud\u017eet\u0101 Kremlis armijai un bru\u0146ojuma ieg\u0101dei pl\u0101no t\u0113r\u0113t gandr\u012bz 30% bud\u017eeta jeb apm\u0113ram 13 triljonus rub\u013cu (~ 166 miljardus USD) – pat ofici\u0101li publiskotie dati ir jauns rekords kop\u0161 padomju laikiem. Milit\u0101ro izdevumu \u012bpatsvars bud\u017eet\u0101 strauji pieaug, jo nav atbilsto\u0161as \u200b\u200bie\u0146\u0113mumu b\u0101zes. Sankciju, starptautisk\u0101s uztic\u012bbas mazin\u0101\u0161an\u0101s un augsto risku d\u0113\u013c Krievijai ir \u0101rk\u0101rt\u012bgi ierobe\u017eota piek\u013cuve \u0101r\u0113jiem finan\u0161u aizdevumiem. Nav ar\u012b cer\u012bbu par augst\u0101k\u0101m energoresursu eksporta cen\u0101m. T\u0101p\u0113c Putina vald\u012bba spiesta ierobe\u017eot iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju soci\u0101l\u0101 atbalsta programmas, samazin\u0101t atalgojumu l\u012bgumkarav\u012briem un turpin\u0101t palielin\u0101t nodok\u013cus. <\/p>\n S\u0101kot ar 2026. gada 1. janv\u0101ri, pievienot\u0101s v\u0113rt\u012bbas nodok\u013ca (PVN) likme Krievij\u0101 palielin\u0101sies no 20% l\u012bdz 22%, kas b\u016bs augst\u0101k\u0101 kop\u0161 1992. gada. Vald\u012bb\u0101 apstiprin\u0101ta radik\u0101la nodok\u013cu reforma mazajiem uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, kas ietekm\u0113s ne vien simtiem t\u016bksto\u0161u uz\u0146\u0113m\u0113ju, bet ar\u012b miljoniem pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju. T\u0101pat parakst\u012bts likums par \u201ctehnolo\u0123iju nodevu\u201d – jaunu nodokli Krievij\u0101 tirgotai elektronikai un ier\u012bc\u0113m. Tom\u0113r pat pierasti rezerv\u0113t\u0101 Centr\u0101l\u0101s bankas vad\u012bt\u0101ja Elv\u012bra Nabiu\u013cina savos koment\u0101ros bija visai tie\u0161a: tarifu un PVN pieauguma d\u0113\u013c Krievijas ekonomika 2026. gada s\u0101kum\u0101 piedz\u012bvos pa\u0101trin\u0101tu infl\u0101ciju. 19. decembr\u012b Nabiu\u013cina br\u012bdin\u0101ja: \u201cDa\u017ei uz\u0146\u0113mumi s\u0101ka kori\u0123\u0113t cenas jau decembr\u012b, ta\u010du viss v\u0113l ir priek\u0161\u0101.\u201d Pagaid\u0101m Kremlis visiem sp\u0113kiem cen\u0161as p\u0113c iesp\u0113jas atrast finans\u0113jumu savu priorit\u0101ro milit\u0101ro izdevumu seg\u0161anai. Ta\u010du Krievijas ekonomika var neiztur\u0113t kara akt\u012bv\u0101s f\u0101zes turpin\u0101\u0161anos. It \u012bpa\u0161i, ja sankcijas tiks v\u0113l vair\u0101k pastiprin\u0101tas, uzskata Ukrainas politi\u0137is un ekonomists Antons Gera\u0161\u010denko. <\/p>\n Izs\u012bkst l\u0113t\u0101s naftas rezerves <\/p>\n Krievijas naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu \u012bpatsvars Krievijas bud\u017eet\u0101 vid\u0113j\u0101 termi\u0146\u0101 un ilgtermi\u0146\u0101 samazin\u0101sies, jo izs\u012bkst l\u0113to og\u013c\u016bde\u0146ra\u017eu rezerves, 30. decembr\u012b pazi\u0146oja Krievijas finan\u0161u ministrs Antons Siluanovs. Vi\u0146\u0161 bez aplinkiem nor\u0101d\u012bja, ka valst\u012b rentabl\u0101s naftas ieguves atradnes ir izsmeltas, naftas ieguves pa\u0161izmaksa palielin\u0101sies, t\u0101p\u0113c naftas un g\u0101zes nozarei nodok\u013ci b\u016bs j\u0101samazina. <\/p>\n \u201cM\u0113s papildus nodro\u0161in\u0101m nozarei labv\u0113l\u012bg\u0101kus nodok\u013cu re\u017e\u012bmus un lieliski saprotam, ka ilgtermi\u0146\u0101 uz augstu naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu l\u012bmeni cer\u0113t vairs nevaram,\u201d Siluanovu cit\u0113 Krem\u013cu zi\u0146u a\u0123ent\u016bra \u201cInterfax\u201d. Ministrs pazi\u0146oja, ka 2026. gad\u0101 naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu da\u013cas \u012bpatsvars bud\u017eet\u0101 samazin\u0101sies l\u012bdz 23%, lai gan \u201cv\u0113l tikai pirms da\u017eiem gadiem\u201d tas sasniedza 50%, un \u0161ogad samazin\u0101sies v\u0113l par vienu procentpunktu. Krievijas vald\u012bbas ilgtermi\u0146a bud\u017eeta prognoze liecina, ka padomju laik\u0101 atkl\u0101to atrad\u0146u izs\u012bkuma d\u0113\u013c l\u012bdz 2042. gadam naftas un g\u0101zes bud\u017eeta ie\u0146\u0113mumi samazin\u0101sies no pa\u0161reiz\u0113jiem 4% no IKP l\u012bdz 1,9% no IKP – zem\u0101kajam l\u012bmenim kop\u0161 2000. gadu s\u0101kuma. <\/p>\n Krievijai beidzies naftas dol\u0101ru pe\u013c\u0146as laiks <\/p>\n Kremlis vairs nevar pa\u013cauties tikai uz naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumiem. Cit\u0101s valst\u012bs energoresursu eksporta pe\u013c\u0146as cikl\u0101 tiktu moderniz\u0113ta r\u016bpniec\u012bba, att\u012bst\u012bti augsto tehnolo\u0123iju parki, sasniegts augst\u0101ks dz\u012bves l\u012bmenis vai g\u016bti citi bonusi no naftas dol\u0101riem. Tikm\u0113r Krievija maks\u0101ja par \u201cspeci\u0101lo milit\u0101ro oper\u0101ciju\u201d Ukrainas izn\u012bcin\u0101\u0161anai, ieguld\u012bja l\u012bdzek\u013cus nerealiz\u0113tos bru\u0146ojuma ra\u017eo\u0161anas korpor\u0101cijas \u201cRosteh\u201d projektos, izb\u016bv\u0113ja vair\u0101kus g\u0101zes cauru\u013cvadus un nopirka olimpisk\u0101s sp\u0113les, koment\u0113 \u201c\u041d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0433\u0430\u0437\u0435\u0442\u0430\u201d. Bet p\u0113c tam nauda beidz\u0101s. <\/p>\n Krievija s\u0101kusi tirgot naftu ar zaud\u0113jumiem, nor\u0101da \u201cReuters\u201d. \u0160\u0101da situ\u0101cija radusies vair\u0101k\u0101m \u201cUrals\u201d markas j\u0113lnaftas pieg\u0101d\u0113m uz Indiju un \u0136\u012bnu, ko tirgo ar milz\u012bg\u0101m atlaid\u0113m, l\u012bdz pat 27-35 USD par barelu sal\u012bdzin\u0101jum\u0101 ar vado\u0161o naftas marku \u201cBrent\u201d. Ar \u0161\u0101d\u0101m cen\u0101m pe\u013c\u0146u var g\u016bt tikai vecaj\u0101s rentablaj\u0101s naftas atradn\u0113s Pievolgas re\u0123ion\u0101 un Rietumsib\u012brij\u0101 ar liel\u0101m rezerv\u0113m un cauru\u013cvadu tuvumu, papildus piem\u0113rojot nulles vai samazin\u0101tu der\u012bgo izrakte\u0146u ieguves nodok\u013ca (\u041d\u0414\u041f\u0418) likmi. Att\u0101l\u0101s atradnes ar pilnu nodok\u013ca likmi ar \u0161\u012bm cen\u0101m k\u013c\u016bst nerentablas un rada zaud\u0113jumus vid\u0113ji 5 USD apm\u0113r\u0101 par katru ieg\u016bto naftas barelu. <\/p>\n Ien\u0101kumu kritums no dividend\u0113m valsts uz\u0146\u0113mumos <\/p>\n P\u0113c energoresursu eksporta un ar dabas resursiem nesaist\u012bto nozaru ien\u0101kumu krituma Krievijas bud\u017eet\u0101 sagaid\u0101ms strauj\u0161 ie\u0146\u0113mumu samazin\u0101jums no valsts uz\u0146\u0113mumiem, kas nodro\u0161ina aptuveni tre\u0161da\u013cu Krievijas ekonomikas, liecina Krievijas Tautsaimniec\u012bbas un valsts p\u0101rvaldes akad\u0113mijas (\u0420\u0410\u041d\u0425\u0438\u0413\u0421) apr\u0113\u0137ini. Par to inform\u0113 \u201cThe Moscow Times\u201d, koment\u0113jot biznesa izdevuma \u201c\u0420\u0411\u041a\u201d publik\u0101ciju. 2026. gad\u0101 Krievijas feder\u0101lais bud\u017eets dividend\u0113s pl\u0101no iekas\u0113t 703 miljardus RUR (~ 9 miljardus USD), \u201cRBC Radio\u201d pazi\u0146oja Krievijas finan\u0161u ministra vietnieks Aleksejs Moisejevs. <\/p>\n \u201cL\u012bdz \u0161\u012b (2025.) gada beig\u0101m m\u0113s dividend\u0113s sa\u0146emsim nedaudz vair\u0101k par 1,1 triljonu rub\u013cu (~ 13 mljrd. USD), turkl\u0101t aptuveni pusi no summas samaks\u0101s valsts bankas \u201c\u0421\u0431\u0435\u0440\u201d un \u201c\u0412\u0422\u0411\u201d (valstij pastarpin\u0101ti caur \u0424\u041d\u0411 pieder 50% plus viena \u201c\u0421\u0431\u0435\u0440\u201d akcija). 2026. gad\u0101 valsts banku ien\u0101kumi no dividend\u0113m samazin\u0101sies par 398 miljardiem rub\u013cu (~ 5 mljrd. USD) jeb 36%, skaidroja Moisejevs. Ministrija prognoz\u0113, ka kop\u0113jie ie\u0146\u0113mumi pe\u013c\u0146as veid\u0101 no uz\u0146\u0113mumu da\u013c\u0101m pamatkapit\u0101l\u0101 vai no dividend\u0113m par valsts akcij\u0101m 2027. gad\u0101 b\u016bs 765,2 miljardi RUR (~ 9,8 mljrd. USD) un 829,2 miljardi RUR (~ 10,6 mljrd. USD) 2028. gad\u0101. <\/p>\n Bud\u017eet\u0101 paredz\u0113ts ar\u012b ien\u0101kumu samazin\u0101jums no sankcij\u0101m pak\u013cautiem izejvielu eksporta uz\u0146\u0113mumiem. Piem\u0113ram, \u201cRos\u0146eftj\u201d dividendes 2025. gad\u0101 bija zem\u0101k\u0101s aizvad\u012bto piecu gadu laik\u0101 – pirmaj\u0101 pusgad\u0101 tikai 122 miljardi RUR (~ 1,6 mljrd. USD). Uz\u0146\u0113mums zi\u0146oja par 70% pe\u013c\u0146as kritumu gada devi\u0146os m\u0113ne\u0161os un 80% kritumu tre\u0161aj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b. <\/p>\n Krietni dr\u016bm\u0101ka ir savulaik varen\u0101 Krievijas g\u0101zes nozares monopolista \u201cGazprom\u201d finan\u0161u situ\u0101cija. \u201cZaud\u0113jot savas poz\u012bcijas Eiropas tirg\u016b, \u201cGazprom\u201d 2023. gad\u0101 dividendes izmaks\u0101t p\u0101rtrauca, un ar\u012b turpm\u0101k t\u0101s gaid\u012bt nav v\u0113rts,\u201d koment\u0113 v\u0113rtspap\u012bru tirgus brokeru pakalpojumu uz\u0146\u0113muma \u201cFreedom Finance Global\u201d vado\u0161\u0101 anal\u012bti\u0137e Nat\u0101lija Mi\u013c\u010dakova. Lai gan \u201cGazprom\u201d zi\u0146oja par 1,1 triljona RUR (~ 13 mljrd. USD) t\u012bro pe\u013c\u0146u laikposm\u0101 no 2025. gada janv\u0101ra l\u012bdz septembrim, uz\u0146\u0113muma br\u012bv\u0101 naudas pl\u016bsma – ien\u0101kumu un izdevumu starp\u012bba tre\u0161aj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b bija tikai 31,6 miljardi RUR (~ 404 milj. USD), otraj\u0101 ceturksn\u012b – 7,6 miljardi RUR (~ 97 milj. USD). Naftas un g\u0101zes nozares finan\u0161u r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji ir pasliktin\u0101ju\u0161ies, un 2026. gad\u0101 uzlabojumi nav gaid\u0101mi, nor\u0101da finan\u0161u grupas \u201c\u0411\u041a\u0421\u201d naftas un g\u0101zes akciju tirgus anal\u012bti\u0137is Kirils Bahtins. <\/p>\n Putins: Krievijas ekonomikas izaugsme tr\u012bs reizes p\u0101rsp\u0113j Eiropas Savien\u012bbu <\/p>\n \u201cKrievijas IKP pieaugums \u0161ogad ir 1%, bet tr\u012bs gadu laik\u0101 \u0161is skaitlis b\u016bs 9,7%,\u201d pazi\u0146oja Krem\u013ca diktators ikgad\u0113j\u0101 telev\u012bzijas propagandas \u0161ov\u0101 \u201cTie\u0161\u0101 l\u012bnija\u201d. \u201cTaj\u0101 pa\u0161\u0101 laika posm\u0101 IKP pieaugums eirozon\u0101 ir bijis tikai 3,1%,\u201d piebilda Putins. Lai gan form\u0101li vi\u0146am taisn\u012bba, svar\u012bgi nov\u0113rt\u0113t \u0161\u012bs \u201cizaugsmes\u201d kvalit\u0101ti, ko veicina iero\u010du un mun\u012bcijas ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjoma pieaugums, kas galu gal\u0101 netiek p\u0101rdoti un nerada valstij papildu ie\u0146\u0113mumus, bet gan tonn\u0101m tiek izn\u012bcin\u0101ti karalauk\u0101. <\/p>\n \u0160\u0101du \u201cekonomikas izaugsmi\u201d diezin vai var\u0113tu saukt par kvalitat\u012bvu, koment\u0113 izdevums \u201cSota\u201d. <\/p>\n \u201cT\u016bksto\u0161iem str\u0101dnieku uz bud\u017eeta izdevumu r\u0113\u0137ina tr\u012bs mai\u0146\u0101s dienu un nakti ra\u017eo iero\u010dus, mun\u012bciju un \u201cka\u013c dzelzi\u201d, kam\u0113r ekonomikai no t\u0101das ra\u017eo\u0161anas nek\u0101da labuma nav. Tikpat labi vi\u0146i var\u0113tu ra\u017eot civil\u0101s lidma\u0161\u012bnas vai automa\u0161\u012bnas, b\u016bv\u0113t cilv\u0113kiem \u0113rtus un pieejamus m\u0101jok\u013cus vai daudz ko citu. Putins run\u0101 par ekonomikas izaugsmi, kas ir tikai skaitlis, un \u201cizaugsme\u201d ir nokritusies l\u012bdz stagn\u0101cijas l\u012bmenim, neskatoties uz vis\u0101m bud\u017eeta injekcij\u0101m. Pilsonisk\u0101s sabiedr\u012bbas p\u0101rst\u0101vji, \u012bpa\u0161i mazie uz\u0146\u0113mumi, vairs nepiekr\u012bt vado\u0146a optimismam. Putins sol\u012bja turpm\u0101kus nodok\u013cu samazin\u0101jumus, ta\u010du nerea\u0123\u0113 uz sabiedr\u012bbas neapmierin\u0101t\u012bbas izpausm\u0113m p\u0113c nodok\u013cu palielin\u0101\u0161anas. <\/p>\n K\u0101ds maiznieks no Maskavas apgabala \u201ctie\u0161\u0101s l\u012bnijas\u201d laik\u0101 s\u016bdz\u0113j\u0101s, ka 2026. gad\u0101 vairs nevar\u0113s str\u0101d\u0101t ar patentu, jo b\u016bs j\u0101maks\u0101 PVN un j\u0101algo gr\u0101matvedis. Bet Putins vi\u0146am pal\u016bdza ats\u016bt\u012bt \u201ckaut ko gar\u0161\u012bgu\u201d un atteica, ka apspried\u012bs ar ministriem, k\u0101 turpin\u0101t atbalst\u012bt mazos uz\u0146\u0113mumus. Tas ir sava veida analogs Putina priek\u0161te\u010da Krievijas prezidenta amat\u0101 Dmitrija Medvedeva sp\u0101rnotajai fr\u0101zei \u201cnaudas nav, bet j\u016bs turieties\u201d\u2026 (\u201c\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0435\u0433 \u043d\u0435\u0442, \u043d\u043e \u0432\u044b \u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0441\u044c\u201d). Putins tom\u0113r tik viegli tikt va\u013c\u0101 no jaut\u0101juma nevar\u0113ja un bija spiests apsol\u012bt nodok\u013cu slogu samazin\u0101t \u201cn\u0101kotn\u0113\u201d. Protams, nav nek\u0101das skaidr\u012bbas par to, kad un k\u0101dos apst\u0101k\u013cos \u0161\u012b \u201cgai\u0161\u0101 n\u0101kotne\u201d pien\u0101ks. Ta\u010du t\u0101ds ir valsts vad\u012bt\u0101ja stils, kur\u0161 pat bez jebk\u0101diem kariem savus pavalstniekus regul\u0101ri aicin\u0101jis \u201csavilkt jostas\u201d. Putina propagandas runu autori (vai vi\u0146\u0161 pats) vienk\u0101r\u0161i t\u0101m izdom\u0101ja \u201cjaunas t\u0113zes\u201d. <\/p>\n Samaks\u0101s Krievijas iedz\u012bvot\u0101ji <\/p>\n Krem\u013ca agres\u012bvo politiku jau daudzus gadus apmaks\u0101 nodok\u013cu maks\u0101t\u0101ji, nevis nafta un g\u0101ze. Krievijas fisk\u0101l\u0101 mode\u013ca p\u0101rveide p\u0113d\u0113jo 15 gadu laik\u0101 j\u0101apl\u016bko main\u012bgo ie\u0146\u0113mumu avotu un bud\u017eeta lomas kontekst\u0101. Aptuveni l\u012bdz 2011.-2012. gadam bud\u017eets bija pas\u012bvs dabas resursu rentes sa\u0146\u0113m\u0113js no Krievijas integr\u0101cijas glob\u0101lajos izejvielu tirgos. Naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu da\u013ca stabili saglab\u0101j\u0101s 48-50% l\u012bmen\u012b, tie bija atkar\u012bgi no \u0101rvalstu tirgus konjunkt\u016bras. Ar\u012b ar naftu un g\u0101zi nesaist\u012btie ie\u0146\u0113mumi, piem\u0113ram, importa muitas nodok\u013ci vai PVN importam, pastarpin\u0101ti tika iekas\u0113ti no naftas eksporta. Bud\u017eeta galven\u0101 funkcija bija ien\u0101kumu p\u0101rdale, lai saglab\u0101tu soci\u0101lo stabilit\u0101ti. Liel\u0101kais bud\u017eeta izdevumu postenis bija \u201csoci\u0101l\u0101 politika\u201d (28-31%), bet valsts da\u013ca ekonomik\u0101 – izdevumu attiec\u012bba pret IKP, saglab\u0101j\u0101s m\u0113rena. 2013.-2018. gad\u0101, palielinoties fisk\u0101lajam spiedienam, notika p\u0101reja no \u0101r\u0113jiem uz iek\u0161\u0113jiem ie\u0146\u0113mumu avotiem. Naftas un g\u0101zes r\u016bpniec\u012bb\u0101 tika uzs\u0101kts \u201cnodok\u013cu manevrs\u201d, un nodok\u013cu slogs tika p\u0101rnests no eksporta uz ra\u017eo\u0161anu, raksta \u201cTelegram\u201d kan\u0101ls \u201c\u0414\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0433\u0438 \u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0441\u0435\u0446\u201d. <\/p>\n Bud\u017eeta ie\u0146\u0113mumi k\u013cuva atkar\u012bgi nevis no naftas cenas \u0101rvalstu tirgos, bet viet\u0113jo uz\u0146\u0113mumu finan\u0161u r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101jiem un ra\u017eo\u0161anas apjoma. Naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu da\u013ca bud\u017eet\u0101 pak\u0101peniski samazin\u0101j\u0101s l\u012bdz 36-40%, strauji pieauga PVN likme, pe\u013c\u0146as nodoklis \u0161aj\u0101 period\u0101 pieauga 5,4 reizes. <\/p>\n Aizvad\u012bto tr\u012bs gadu laik\u0101 naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu da\u013ca ir samazin\u0101jusies jau l\u012bdz ~ 30%, savuk\u0101rt ie\u0146\u0113mumi, kas nav saist\u012bti ar naftu un g\u0101zi, ir pieaugu\u0161i l\u012bdz ~ 70%. Vald\u012bba paaugstin\u0101ja akc\u012bzes nodok\u013cus, radik\u0101li nostiprin\u0101ja nodok\u013cu administr\u0113\u0161anas sist\u0113mu (tie\u0161saistes kases apar\u0101ti, produktu mar\u0137\u0113\u0161ana), kas \u013c\u0101va strauji palielin\u0101t PVN un ien\u0101kuma nodok\u013ca iekas\u0113\u0161anu. Ekonomika to uzreiz sajuta un \u201cpal\u0113nin\u0101j\u0101s\u201d. IKP pieaugums bija ~ 1% gad\u0101, savuk\u0101rt, pieaugot izdevumiem, nodok\u013cu maks\u0101t\u0101ju re\u0101lie ien\u0101kumi samazin\u0101j\u0101s. <\/p>\n Ar\u012b turpm\u0101k Krievijas bud\u017eeta ie\u0146\u0113mumu iztr\u016bkums no valsts uz\u0146\u0113mumu naftas un g\u0101zes eksporta palielin\u0101s nodok\u013cu slogu valsts iedz\u012bvot\u0101jiem un biznesam. 2025. gad\u0101 vald\u012bba paaugstin\u0101ja uz\u0146\u0113mumu pe\u013c\u0146as nodokli no 20 l\u012bdz 25%, 2026. gad\u0101 no PVN likmes palielin\u0101\u0161anas bud\u017eet\u0101 papildus iekas\u0113ti vismaz 1,7 triljoni RUR (~ 22 mljrd. USD), pazi\u0146oja finan\u0161u ministra vietnieks Aleksejs Sazanovs. <\/p>\n To var\u0113tu nov\u0113rst, optimiz\u0113jot bud\u017eeta kara izdevumus, ta\u010du Kremlis \u0161\u0101du iesp\u0113ju noraida, koment\u0113 \u201cTelegram\u201d kan\u0101ls \u201c\u0412\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e 2.0\u201d. <\/p>\n Pe\u013c\u0146as nodoklis un PVN pa\u0161laik nodro\u0161ina aptuveni 45-50% Krievijas bud\u017eeta ie\u0146\u0113mumu. Tiesa, tie joproj\u0101m nav pietiekami, lai segtu pieaugo\u0161os izdevumus, un vald\u012bba pl\u0101no audz\u0113t iek\u0161\u0113jo par\u0101du. Krievijas bud\u017eets 2025. gad\u0101 vairs nebija makroekonomisk\u0101s regul\u0113\u0161anas, bet gan ekonomikas p\u0101rvald\u012bbas instruments, kur fisk\u0101lais slogs tiek maksim\u0101li palielin\u0101ts atbilsto\u0161i kara apst\u0101k\u013ciem, kur stabilit\u0101ti nosaka nevis ekonomikas efektivit\u0101te, bet sp\u0113ja ieg\u016bt un p\u0101rdal\u012bt resursus sl\u0113gt\u0101 sist\u0113m\u0101. Vald\u012bbas finan\u0161u p\u0101rvald\u012bbas instruments vairs nav naftas cenas, bet uz\u0146\u0113mumu finan\u0161u un iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju ien\u0101kumu kontrole. <\/p>\n Putina vald\u012bbas politika un bud\u017eeta prognoze <\/p>\n Gandr\u012bz visi koment\u0101ri par Krievijas vald\u012bbas apstiprin\u0101to \u201cBud\u017eeta prognozi l\u012bdz 2042. gadam\u201d ies\u0101kas ar fr\u0101zi par gaid\u0101mo naftas un g\u0101zes ie\u0146\u0113mumu kritumu, proti, tie samazin\u0101sies gandr\u012bz \u010detras reizes: no 7,2% IKP 2019. gad\u0101 l\u012bdz 1,9% 2042. gad\u0101. <\/p>\n Vai \u0161\u0101ds samazin\u0101jums ietekm\u0113s vald\u012bbas politiku? Maz ticams. Jebkur\u0101 gad\u012bjum\u0101 Putina vald\u012bba pl\u0101no kompens\u0113t \u0101r\u0113jo ie\u0146\u0113mumu samazin\u0101\u0161anos ar v\u0113rien\u012bgu iek\u0161zemes \u201cie\u0146\u0113mumu konfisk\u0101ciju un p\u0101rdali\u201d. Par \u201cjauno bud\u017eeta karali\u201d k\u013c\u016bst PVN, palielinot t\u0101 \u012bpatsvaru iek\u0161zemes kopprodukt\u0101 no 6,5% l\u012bdz 7,6%. Tas tiks pan\u0101kts, standarta PVN likmi paaugstinot par 2% un \u201cveicot sist\u0113miskus pas\u0101kumus nodok\u013cu b\u0101zes papla\u0161in\u0101\u0161anai\u201d, piem\u0113ram, ievie\u0161ot tranz\u012bta pre\u010du izseko\u0161anas sist\u0113mu un pazeminot PVN maks\u0101\u0161anas sliek\u0161\u0146us vienk\u0101r\u0161otaj\u0101 nodok\u013cu sist\u0113m\u0101. Vald\u012bba konsekventi palielin\u0101s nodok\u013cu maks\u0101jumus, notiks p\u0101reja no \u201cnaftas aplik\u0161anas ar nodok\u013ciem\u201d uz \u201cpat\u0113ri\u0146a aplik\u0161anu ar nodok\u013ciem\u201d, kas ir risin\u0101jums ilgtermi\u0146\u0101, un vald\u012bba pie t\u0101 str\u0101d\u0101 jau k\u0101dus 15 gadus, koment\u0113 \u201c\u0414\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0433\u0438 \u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0441\u0435\u0446\u201d. <\/p>\n Tas neb\u016bs \u012bslaic\u012bgs pas\u0101kums: 2024. un 2025.\u202fgada dati liecina, ka \u0161\u012b proporcija nemain\u012bsies. Krievijas ie\u0146\u0113mumu sist\u0113ma tagad tiks balst\u012bta ar iek\u0161zemes ekonomikas apgroz\u012bjumu – pat\u0113ri\u0146a un uz\u0146\u0113mumu pe\u013c\u0146as nodok\u013ciem. Nafta joproj\u0101m paliks noz\u012bm\u012bgs \u0101rvalstu val\u016btas ien\u0101kumu avots kritiski svar\u012bga importa apmaksai, ta\u010du t\u0101 vairs neb\u016bs tik b\u016btiska vald\u012bbas pl\u0101nu \u012bsteno\u0161anai. Un, t\u0101 k\u0101 Krievijas pilso\u0146i \u201cKrem\u013ca un vald\u012bbas politiku piln\u012bb\u0101 atbalsta\u201d, ir dabiski, ka vi\u0146iem par to b\u016bs j\u0101maks\u0101. <\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\tinfo<\/p>\n Uzzini pirmais
kas interesants noticis Latvij\u0101 un pasaul\u0113,
pievienojoties mums Telegram<\/a> vai Whatsapp<\/a> kan\u0101l\u0101<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Krievijas ekonomikas recesijas iesp\u0113jam\u012bba strauji pieaug, liecina Kremlim un Krievijas vald\u012bbai tuv\u0101 Makroekonomisk\u0101s anal\u012bzes un \u012bstermi\u0146a prognoz\u0113\u0161anas anal\u012btisk\u0101…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94752,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,28,29,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-94751","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-breaking-news","11":"tag-breakingnews","12":"tag-featured-news","13":"tag-featurednews","14":"tag-headlines","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-latvia","18":"tag-latvian","19":"tag-latviesu","20":"tag-latviesu-valoda","21":"tag-latviesuvaloda","22":"tag-latvija","23":"tag-lv","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-popularakas-zinas","26":"tag-popularakaszinas","27":"tag-top-stories","28":"tag-topstories","29":"tag-world","30":"tag-world-news","31":"tag-worldnews","32":"tag-zinas","33":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@lv\/115841146748023538","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}