Akciju tirgos 2025. gads izv\u0113rt\u0101s par paradoks\u0101lu pseido \u201camerik\u0101\u0146u kalni\u0146u\u201d braucienu, kur\u0161 vair\u0101k bied\u0113ja, nek\u0101 re\u0101li tirgu satricin\u0101ja. Bij\u0101m gatavoju\u0161ies augstai volatilit\u0101tei saist\u012bb\u0101 ar \u201cRud\u0101 gulbja\u201d atgrie\u0161anos Baltaj\u0101 nam\u0101 un da\u017e\u0101diem iesp\u0113jamiem \u0123eopolitiskiem satricin\u0101jumiem.<\/p>\n
Tom\u0113r realit\u0101t\u0113 tirgi izr\u0101d\u012bj\u0101s p\u0101rsteidzo\u0161i iztur\u012bgi, \u0101tri p\u0101rvarot vair\u0101kus negat\u012bvus impulsus bez palieko\u0161\u0101m sek\u0101m. Vien\u012bgais patiesi negaid\u012btais fundament\u0101lais notikums bija Trampa apr\u012b\u013ca tarifu \u201catbr\u012bvo\u0161anas ned\u0113\u013ca\u201d, kas izrais\u012bja \u012bsu paniku, ta\u010du akcijas to p\u0101rvar\u0113ja da\u017eu dienu laik\u0101 un turpm\u0101kas zi\u0146as par jauniem tarifiem vai to izmai\u0146\u0101m vairs neizrais\u012bja nek\u0101du iev\u0113rojamu tirgus reakciju.<\/p>\n
K\u0101 visspilgt\u0101ko notikumu var\u0113tu izcelt ASV akciju tirgus septi\u0146u m\u0113ne\u0161u rallija maratonu, kas Nasdaq gad\u012bjum\u0101 tikai nosl\u0113dz\u0101s 2025. gada novembr\u012b. Savuk\u0101rt S&P 500 rallijs turpin\u0101s, lai gan indekss novembra m\u0113nesi nosl\u0113dza sal\u012bdzino\u0161i pietic\u012bgi. Eiropas akcijas 2025. gadu s\u0101ka ar sp\u0113c\u012bgu aug\u0161upeju, bet kop\u0161 t\u0101 laika t\u0101s b\u016btiski atpaliku\u0161as no ASV.<\/p>\n
Nevar teikt, ka rallijs ASV akcij\u0101s bija negaid\u012bts, bet noteikti negaid\u012bti ilgs un intens\u012bvs, nedodot tirgus dal\u012bbniekiem nek\u0101das atelpas. Galvenais dzin\u0113jsp\u0113ks joproj\u0101m ir m\u0101ksl\u012bg\u0101 intelekta (MI) \u201chaips\u201d, kas b\u016btiski paaugstin\u0101ja un turpina uzp\u016bst tehnolo\u0123iju gigantu valu\u0101cijas l\u012bdz b\u012bstamiem augstumiem. Tas mums nebija p\u0101rsteigums, bet cer\u0113j\u0101m uz \u201cobjekt\u012bv\u0101ku tirgu\u201d, kas nov\u0113rt\u0113 ar\u012b citus sektorus, ne tikai \u201cMag7\u201d. T\u0101p\u0113c joproj\u0101m aktu\u0101la ir m\u016bsu iepriek\u0161\u0113j\u0101 gada t\u0113ze, ka \u201cASV indeksi ir \u013coti d\u0101rgi un invest\u012bciju iesp\u0113jas ir j\u0101mekl\u0113 citur (bet ar\u012b citur ir savas probl\u0113mas un riski)\u201d.<\/p>\n
ASV ekonomika un politika k\u013cuvusi atkar\u012bga no MI cer\u012bb\u0101m: augst\u0101s valu\u0101cijas sola n\u0101kotnes pe\u013c\u0146u no milz\u012bgiem kapit\u0101lieguld\u012bjumiem, bet realit\u0101t\u0113 pat\u0113r\u0113t\u0101ju noska\u0146ojums (iz\u0146emot tur\u012bgas m\u0101jsaimniec\u012bbas) saglab\u0101jas v\u0101j\u0161, infl\u0101cijas spiediens joproj\u0101m ir j\u016btams, un darba tirgus v\u0101jin\u0101s. T\u0101d\u0113j\u0101di FRS nesen s\u0101ka pazemin\u0101t likmes, k\u0101 ar\u012b uzs\u0101ka kvantitat\u012bv\u0101s m\u012bkstin\u0101\u0161anas ciklu. Vai tas ir kr\u012bzes sign\u0101ls? M\u0113s t\u0101 nedom\u0101jam, bet sekojam l\u012bdzi situ\u0101cijai. Likvidit\u0101te tirgos ir pietiekama, un tas dr\u012bz\u0101k ir prevent\u012bvs solis pret recesijas \u0113nu. Latvij\u0101 2025. gad\u0101 turpin\u0101j\u0101s fokuss uz oblig\u0101ciju tirgus att\u012bst\u012bbu \u2013 11 m\u0113ne\u0161os notiku\u0161as 34 emisijas, piesaistot EUR 1,49 mljrd., kas jau p\u0101rsniedz rekordaugstos 2024. gada rezult\u0101tus, k\u0101 ar\u012b pateicoties ECB likmju samazin\u0101jumiem gada griezum\u0101, daudzi emitenti izmantoju\u0161i iesp\u0113jas refinans\u0113t oblig\u0101cijas. Segments aug strauji, palielin\u0101s interese gan no viet\u0113jiem investoriem, gan starptautiskiem \u2013 redzam to k\u0101 Baltijas re\u0123iona nobrie\u0161anas paz\u012bmi.<\/p>\n
Diem\u017e\u0113l IPO aktivit\u0101te joproj\u0101m paliek zema, un tuv\u0101kaj\u0101 laik\u0101 aktivit\u0101tes pieaugumu negaid\u0101m. Aizsardz\u012bbas izdevumi nesen palielin\u0101j\u0101s l\u012bdz 5% no IKP, kas \u0123eopolitiskaj\u0101 kontekst\u0101 ir lo\u0123iski. B\u016btiska diskusija v\u0113rojama ar\u012b par pensiju 2. l\u012bme\u0146a uzkr\u0101jumu iesp\u0113jamo izmaksu, kur par atskaites punktu kalpos Igaunijas un dr\u012bz ar\u012b Lietuvas pieredze. Kam\u0113r Igaunij\u0101 da\u013ca iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju izv\u0113l\u0113j\u0101s \u0161o naudu novirz\u012bt viet\u0113j\u0101 kapit\u0101la tirg\u016b, Lietuvas izaicin\u0101jums b\u016bs nodro\u0161in\u0101t, lai \u0161ie uzkr\u0101jumi str\u0101d\u0101tu valsts lab\u0101. Galven\u0101 priorit\u0101te ir izvair\u012bties no scen\u0101rija, kur\u0101 \u0161is kapit\u0101ls tiek novirz\u012bts \u012bstermi\u0146a pat\u0113ri\u0146am.<\/p>\n
Ko nes\u012bs 2026. gads? \u2013 \u0161\u012b gada \u201clielo z\u0113nu\u201d prognozes, visticam\u0101k, b\u016bs tuv\u0101kas realit\u0101tei nek\u0101 2024. gada prognozes \u2013 \u0161o var izskaidrot ar skaidr\u0101kiem makroekonomiskajiem sign\u0101liem gada s\u0101kum\u0101 un anal\u012bti\u0137u pe\u013c\u0146as pieaugumu gaid\u0101m, kas liel\u0101koties sakrita ar uz\u0146\u0113mumu rezult\u0101tiem. Skatoties uz 2026. gadu, varam prognoz\u0113t paaugstin\u0101tu volatilit\u0101ti, bet ar potenci\u0101li pozit\u012bv\u0101m izmai\u0146\u0101m l\u012bdz gada beig\u0101m. FRS un ECB, visticam\u0101k, turpin\u0101s monet\u0101r\u0101s politikas m\u012bkstin\u0101\u0161anu, kas var\u0113tu uztur\u0113t likvidit\u0101ti, bet \u0123eopolitika un recesijas riski rad\u012bs savus riskus. MI sektors var\u0113tu s\u0101kt r\u0101d\u012bt re\u0101lu \u201ctaust\u0101mu\u201d atdevi vai izrais\u012bt korekciju, ja izr\u0101d\u012bsies, ka uz\u0146\u0113mumu pe\u013c\u0146a neatbilst milz\u012bgiem kapit\u0101lieguld\u012bjumiem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Akciju tirgos 2025. gads izv\u0113rt\u0101s par paradoks\u0101lu pseido \u201camerik\u0101\u0146u kalni\u0146u\u201d braucienu, kur\u0161 vair\u0101k bied\u0113ja, nek\u0101 re\u0101li tirgu satricin\u0101ja.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94916,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[23,57,869,77,870,28,29,867,32,33,22,30,31,35,39,38,36,37,34,871,868,40,20,26,27,24,25,54,55,56,21,58],"class_list":{"0":"post-94915","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-zinas-no-arvalstim","8":"tag-aktualitates","9":"tag-arvalstim","10":"tag-biznesa-zinas","11":"tag-bizness","12":"tag-bizness-latvija","13":"tag-breaking-news","14":"tag-breakingnews","15":"tag-dienas-zinas","16":"tag-featured-news","17":"tag-featurednews","18":"tag-headlines","19":"tag-latest-news","20":"tag-latestnews","21":"tag-latvia","22":"tag-latvian","23":"tag-latviesu","24":"tag-latviesu-valoda","25":"tag-latviesuvaloda","26":"tag-latvija","27":"tag-latvijas-biznesa-zinas","28":"tag-latvijas-zinas","29":"tag-lv","30":"tag-news","31":"tag-popularakas-zinas","32":"tag-popularakaszinas","33":"tag-top-stories","34":"tag-topstories","35":"tag-world","36":"tag-world-news","37":"tag-worldnews","38":"tag-zinas","39":"tag-zinas-no-arvalstim"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/lv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}