A Russian strike hit a football stadium in Ukraine, just hours before it was set to host a major match. At least one person, a 29-year-old woman, was injured as a result of the attack, according to regional governor Oleh Kiper.
The attack came as fresh US intelligence reportedly warned Vladimir Putin could seek to test NATO’s resolve with a limited military incursion or cyberattack, raising fears the Kremlin may look beyond Ukraine as the war grinds into its fifth year. Chornomorets Stadium in the Black Sea port city of Odesa suffered damage to its roof, windows and stands after the strike on Friday, Ukraine‘s State Emergency Service said. The 34,000-seat venue had been due to host a Ukrainian Premier League match between Chornomorets and Kolos on Saturday, although officials have yet to confirm whether the fixture will go ahead. The warning over NATO stems from a reported US intelligence assessment cited by the Wall Street Journal, which said Russia could seek to probe the alliance’s willingness to respond to a limited attack sometime between this autumn and 2029.
According to the report, possible scenarios range from a small land incursion to a cyberattack, with officials assessing the likelihood of such a move as low but increasing over time.
NATO spokesperson Colonel Martin O’Donnell said the alliance was prepared to respond to any potential threat.
He said NATO was “ready to deter and defend as necessary”, adding it was “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios”.
The reported assessment follows separate warnings passed to Poland by the United States about the possibility of Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank.
Western security sources fear any such move would be designed to expose divisions within the alliance while avoiding a full-scale confrontation with NATO.
According to Polish outlet Onet, US officials have repeatedly briefed Warsaw on potential Russian plans, with scenarios said to include drone or missile strikes against critical infrastructure, cyberattacks or a limited ground incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops crossing into alliance territory.
A source close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki reportedly said the US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”.
The source said the alleged aim would be to increase tensions within NATO and pressure Western allies into reducing military support for Ukraine.
Another Polish defence source and a diplomat from another NATO member state reportedly said a provocation against Poland or one of the Baltic states was being treated as a serious possibility.
However, Western security officials believe Russia currently lacks the capability for a full-scale conflict with NATO while its forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine. Instead, security sources fear Moscow could attempt a smaller operation, such as a cyberattack or limited border incursion, while remaining below the threshold of a wider conflict.
NATO has repeatedly insisted any attack on one member state would be treated as an attack on the entire alliance under Article 5 of its founding treaty.
The reported intelligence assessment said any potential Russian action could come between this autumn and 2029, with the risk of a limited land incursion assessed as low but increasing over time.