A senior NATO official separates the danger Russia represents from the immediate risk of another major warfront opening in Europe.
Russia remains a threat to NATO member states, but because of its war against Ukraine, it does not have sufficient resources to open a new large-scale front against the Alliance. This assessment was voiced by Jānis Sārts, Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, in a podcast.
Russia is and will remain a threat to us, but that does not mean it is an immediate threat.
– Jānis Sārts
The war against Ukraine limits Russia’s capabilities
Jānis Sārts stressed that Russia’s main military forces and resources are engaged in the war against Ukraine. To attack NATO countries, Moscow would need to be capable of conducting a separate large-scale military operation, but it currently lacks such potential.
At the same time, NATO has already developed defense plans for potential threats. According to Sārts, there are no signs that Russia is preparing to launch a war against Alliance member states while hostilities in Ukraine continue.
As long as the war in Ukraine continues, Russia is unable to open another military front against NATO countries, and there are no signs that it intends to do so.
– Jānis Sārts
NATO urged to assess risks based on facts
Sārts suggested that Russia would continue increasing its weapons production and stockpiles. At the same time, experts differ in their assessments of how quickly Moscow will be able to restore its capacity to wage a large-scale war.
He warned against emotional claims that a Russian attack on the Baltic states is supposedly inevitable. In his view, defense decisions should be made based on the actual security situation, existing threats, and confirmed facts, rather than by fueling panic.