Vladimir Putin‘s sabotage campaign in Europe risks a “miscalculation” that could accidentally trigger a confrontation with Nato, Western officials have warned.
Intelligence sources believe the Russian leader does not want a direct military clash with Nato, but does have an “appetite” to conduct “hybrid operations” against the alliance.
The Kremlin is suspected of being behind covert attacks on several sites in Nato member countries in Europe, including a warehouse in Britain, a weapons factory in Estonia and a railway in Poland.
One official said: “The appetite of Russia to conduct … sub-threshold or hybrid operations against Nato countries, whether this is sabotage or cyber, is very clear. President Putin absolutely wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Nato. However, in all of this, there is the risk of miscalculation.”
The comments come after a week of sabre-rattling by the Kremlin, in which Russia threatened to attack British factories after the UK gave Ukraine the blueprints to build Storm Shadow missiles.
Western sources have also revealed that Russia launched a fresh wave of attacks on European armaments factories. The Kremlin is said to be recruiting local gang members to sabotage defence manufacturers, giving it plausible deniability.
In 2023 a group of criminals, recruited by the Kremlin, set fire to a warehouse in east London owned by a Ukrainian business.
Pro-Russian saboteurs tried to sneak a parcel bomb on to a DHL logistics plane in Leipzig, Germany, in 2024. A DHL depot in Birmingham was targeted in a similar attack. Russia has also been accused of sabotaging a Polish railway.
The Kremlin has grown increasingly frustrated by Ukraine’s use of British drones to conduct deep strikes across Russia, which have destroyed oil refineries and warehouses.
Putin is under increasing domestic pressure after Ukrainian strikes caused oil production to fall to its lowest level since 2005. Russia is also suffering huge numbers casualties in the war in Ukraine, with estimates indicating that its army is losing 6,000 more troops a month than it can recruit.
A second Western official said: “Putin’s been frustrated by the failure of Russian forces to achieve the goal he sent them at the beginning of this year to seize the rest of the Donbas by the summer.
“Putin’s response to this has been to target civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine … it’s clear Moscow intends to try to break Ukrainian morale by destroying its energy infrastructure this winter.”
John Ratcliffe, the director of the CIA, visited Moscow this week to share his bleak assessment of the state of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.
Credit: X/Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Speaking to Aleksandr Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s FSB intelligence service, Mr Ratcliffe urged Moscow to cut a deal before their military and economic situation worsened, according to a report by the New York Times.
On Thursday, Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry spokesman, warned that the UK would face “catastrophic consequences” for its support of Kyiv.
She said: “We have repeatedly warned that any British military installations and equipment in Ukraine and beyond its borders could be targeted in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory carried out using British weapons.”
Officials have attempted to downplay the remarks, brushing them off as a typical tactic by Moscow to try to force Ukraine’s allies to reduce their support for Kyiv.
‘We do need to remain vigilant’
One official said during a briefing with journalists: “There’s nothing particularly new in the rhetoric. The pressure on Putin, particularly in his leadership, has grown.
“And in that context, we shouldn’t be surprised at the rhetoric that’s coming out of Russia. We do need to remain vigilant, particularly around these hybrid threats. And we shouldn’t forget Russia has killed citizens on British soil in the recent past.”
It also emerged on Friday that Chancellor John Healey’s first budget in October will not commit to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence by 2030. The Treasury said a “pathway” to 3 per cent would be set out in the 2027 spending review instead.
In June, Mr Healey resigned as Sir Keir Starmer’s defence secretary over the issue, saying that hitting the target was vital to keep Britain safe from Russia.