What to buy?
The war in Ukraine as well as the US-Israeli war with Iran have demonstrated that the future of warfare likely lies with drones, electronic warfare, and AI, rather than simply artillery and missiles.
In the short run, traditional weaponry is certainly still needed. Ukraine asked for a licence to build US Patriot missile interceptors specifically because these are still the best defence against Russia’s ballistic missiles.
But if warfare becomes smaller, cheaper and more nimble, Western powers will need to adapt.
It makes sense to use a Patriot interceptor to bring down a ballistic missile. But it clearly makes no economic sense to use a Patriot missile, which costs about $4 million, or a THAAD missile with a price tag of $12 million to $15 million, to shoot down an Iranian or Russian Shahed drone, which costs between $20,000 and $50,000.
Many European militaries may still be stuck in an outdated mindset, however. The Kiel Institute recently warned that spending on new-paradigm weapons like drones accounted for just 12 per cent of total procurement spending in 2024-2025.
While Poland, one of the European Union members most at risk from any future Russian aggression, has been increasingly focusing on cutting-edge military technology, Germany and Britain have seen their share fall over time.