A shifting assessment in Washington has raised fresh fears about how far Moscow might go while facing pressure on multiple fronts.

The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. intelligence reports, says that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may attempt a limited attack on a NATO-allied country within the next few years.

Previously, U.S. officials assessed that Putin would not provoke NATO countries while the war in Ukraine was ongoing.

That assessment changed at the beginning of this year, as Putin has come under increasing pressure both on the battlefield and at home to secure victory.

Potential Scenario and Timeline

According to U.S. intelligence, Ukrainian drones are increasingly damaging both the Russian army and its oil industry, while Russian forces are suffering significant losses on the front line.

U.S. officials believe that Putin’s goal in a possible attack on NATO during the war with Ukraine could be to break up the Alliance.

U.S. intelligence sources are analyzing whether Moscow intends to escalate its aggressive actions against European allies in the near future, while Putin seeks to secure his desired gains in Ukraine.

According to U.S. officials, the concern is that Putin could become more dangerous when he is backed into a corner.

Possible threats from Russia range from cyberattacks against NATO countries and the use of unidentified armed formations to occupy territories, to a limited ground invasion of the alliance’s eastern flank.

U.S. intelligence estimates that the timeline for any Russian move extends from the autumn of this year through 2029, while the likelihood of the most extreme scenario – a limited ground invasion – increases over time.

According to Latvian intelligence, Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including the use of drones to pressure NATO countries into ending their support for Ukraine.

In summary, experts note growing tensions around NATO’s eastern flank and possible actions by Moscow that could lead to an escalation of the conflict and shift the balance in Europe.