Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (Alexander KAZAKOV/Getty Images)
U.S. intelligence reports say Russia could conduct a limited assault on a NATO ally in the next few years, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The new assessments warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt anything from a cyberattack or deployment of unmarked armed groups to a small-scale incursion along NATO’s eastern flank, according to U.S. officials.
The potential window for Russian action stretches from this fall through 2029, the Journal reported Thursday night.
Intelligence officials consider a land incursion the least likely scenario, but believe the risk could increase over time.
The assessment represents a shift from the previous U.S. view that Putin would avoid directly provoking NATO while Russia remains at war with Ukraine.
Officials now worry that a cornered Putin, facing mounting Ukrainian attacks and pressure to demonstrate military success, could become more dangerous.
The concern follows what officials see as Moscow increasingly testing NATO’s defenses.
Russian missiles and drones have crossed into NATO territory, including in recent incidents involving Poland and Romania.
NATO has bolstered its eastern flank in response to repeated Russian airspace violations.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said the recent incidents were deliberate Russian attempts to pressure NATO into reducing support for Ukraine.
“This was no accident,” Wicker said in a statement Thursday after a Russian cruise missile struck Polish territory and armed Russian drones entered Romanian airspace.
“These tactics were a deliberate escalation aimed at coercing NATO to end its support of Ukraine.”
Wicker argued that “Putin only understands strength and cost imposition,” and called for maintaining credible NATO conventional defenses while European allies increase military spending.
The warnings come as Ukraine increasingly strikes targets deep inside Russia.
Kyiv said Thursday it struck oil refineries hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border as part of its campaign to weaken Moscow’s wartime economy.
Russia said its defenses shot down 605 Ukrainian drones overnight.
The intelligence assessment also comes amid concerns about U.S. weapons inventories following years of military assistance to Ukraine and expenditures during the conflict with Iran.
The Journal reported that stocks of some critical missiles and air-defense interceptors have fallen, although the Trump administration strongly disputes suggestions that the U.S. is unprepared.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the military maintains a “deep, ready arsenal,” warning that adversaries who mistake reports of shortages for American weakness “will discover the truth the hard way.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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