Recent reporting says Russian leader\u00a0Vladimir Putin\u00a0is considering testing the resolve and combat responses of the\u00a0North Atlantic Treaty Organization\u00a0(NATO) over the next couple of years. Despite being outgunned in defense spending and seemingly having its hands full in\u00a0Ukraine, the\u00a0Russian Federation\u00a0already appears to be probing the alliance.<\/p>\n
An explosives-carrying drone ended up on a runway Aug. 4 at the airport in Leipzig, Germany. (Russia denies any connection to the weapon.) Around the same time, a Russian cruise missile landed more than 50 miles inside the Polish border, detonating in a field. Coupled with reported U.S. intelligence about Moscow\u2019s designs on NATO, the incidents paint an ominous picture.<\/p>\n
When I served as supreme allied commander of NATO from 2009 to 2013, we had a reasonably cooperative relationship with Moscow. We worked together on counter-piracy, counter-narcotics and counterterrorism, especially in Afghanistan. But Putin\u2019s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 revealed the Kremlin\u2019s real intent: conquer Ukraine for its vast wealth and 44 million citizens, then use those resources to pressure Europe into subservience.<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s scheme is different. Putin knows he is losing in Ukraine. From Moscow\u2019s perspective, the key to getting back on the front foot is simple: cut off aid to the Ukrainians.<\/p>\n
While the U.S. has already backed off the robust support it once provided, fortunately the Europeans have stepped up. So Putin reckons that if he can peel off some number of the Euros, he can split the alliance and succeed in his ambitions.<\/p>\n
Think of Putin as a burglar who has been battering Europe\u2019s front door by attacking Ukraine. The door hasn\u2019t broken, so he\u2019s going to try the windows and back entrance instead.\u00a0He will likely amp up his already active cyberattacks, perhaps targeting institutions that have the potential to frighten or intimidate civilian populations (fuel delivery systems, food processing and delivery, medical facilities). Additionally, while European and\u00a0U.S.\u00a0financial institutions and military systems are reasonably well protected, our industrial infrastructure (electric, water, data centers and natural gas) is more vulnerable.<\/p>\n
Also expect more nuclear threats. Putin has been rattling that saber for the past four years. He may shift nuclear weapons around western Russia or in Belarus as a display of his capabilities.<\/p>\n
Most aggressively of all, Putin could send special forces, probably not operating in uniform, into the small Baltic nations of\u00a0Estonia,\u00a0Latvia\u00a0or\u00a0Lithuania. Such \u201clittle green men\u201d might conduct unconventional operations like the physical sabotage of transportation and power networks, perhaps using dramatic means like car bombs. They could unleash small, AI-powered drones connected through commercial networks.<\/p>\n
NATO\u00a0would be wise to take these threats seriously now, before the situation demands a major military response.\u00a0The North Atlantic Council\u00a0should hold public hearings in\u00a0Brussels\u00a0concerning the threat and direct the supreme allied commander to present detailed plans for countering Russian activities. This should include a significant, alliance-wide exercise that fuses American intelligence with European ground forces. A powerful defensive cyber campaign should be part of it.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the alliance should draw up plans for proportional retaliation. It\u2019s particularly important that\u00a0NATO\u00a0demonstrates its cybersecurity capability, so that Putin realizes his own vulnerabilities and sees there is no \u201cfree punch\u201d he can land on the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0or\u00a0Europe.\u00a0NATO\u00a0certainly has more combat capability than its opponent and can reply forcefully in the field as well. The Russian enclave of\u00a0Kaliningrad\u00a0is a tempting location for direct retaliation given the confluence of vulnerable military power located there. It is also geographically proportional to any attacks on the Baltic states.<\/p>\n
Above all, Putin must be made to see that the alliance will respond with force if he continues down this dangerous path. Exercising NATO\u2019s major operational plans for defending the Baltic states would send a direct signal.<\/p>\n
The bottom line: If the Russians probe with a bayonet and encounter mush, they will likely keep going. If they find steel, they will withdraw.\u00a0NATO\u00a0has plenty of military steel to resist an adventurous and risk-taking Kremlin. But it must find the resolve to use its muscle before Putin decides it\u2019s mush.<\/p>\n
James Stavridis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former supreme allied commander of NATO and vice chairman at Carlyle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Recent reporting says Russian leader\u00a0Vladimir Putin\u00a0is considering testing the resolve and combat responses of the\u00a0North Atlantic Treaty Organization\u00a0(NATO)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10836,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2480,241,4523],"class_list":["post-10835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-latest-headlines","tag-opinion","tag-opinion-columnists"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10835\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10836"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}