They have both also been working to drastically increase their access to the region through planned expansions of their icebreaking fleets. Russia possesses the world\u2019s largest fleet of icebreakers, at around 41, eight of which are nuclear-powered, and while currently only operating five conventional<\/a> ones, China has announced the start of its own nuclear icebreaker program.<\/a> Contrast this with the only three icebreakers the United States currently operates, one of which is almost completely devoted to servicing the Antarctic; the capability and accessibility gaps in the region are widening.<\/p>\n This matters significantly. Not because the Arctic is the likely place a war will start, but because it\u2019s the place that can be used by the adversary of NATO to help generate dilemmas that don\u2019t have good solutions. In the case of the Arctic, Russia hosts a great deal of its nuclear deterrent with its Northern Fleet based around the Kola Peninsula. This includes several nuclear-capable submarines and missile cruisers capable of launching nuclear missiles. Now, let\u2019s imagine a realistic scenario on why this matters.<\/p>\n \u2018The primary concern isn\u2019t that Russia or China will strike the US with nuclear weapons from the Arctic. What matters most is visibility and access\u2019<\/p>\n Realistically, while we need to be prepared, the primary concern isn\u2019t that Russia or China will strike the US with nuclear weapons from the Arctic. What matters most is visibility and access. If Russia and China coordinate to make strategic gains in their respective regions, they can jointly exploit our current capability gaps in the Arctic to cause headaches for the US and NATO. For example, in a scenario where Russia, China, and even Iran were to decide to coordinate together, taking advantage of NATO\u2019s capability in the Arctic, Russia could start disrupting NATO\u2019s eyes and ears in the Arctic and their communications in the region.<\/p>\n Taking advantage of their superior access, Russia could begin systematically disrupting essential NATO undersea communications cables and networks while simultaneously starting massive military exercises involving its nuclear-capable submarines and other craft. Slowing communications and creating a potential blind spot in NATO\u2019s ability to monitor Russia\u2019s Northern Fleet would cause genuine panic, and NATO nations would be forced to divert resources to try to determine immediately where they are. <\/p>\n This would be especially concerning if communications and NATO eyes on the critical Greenland\u2013Iceland\u2013UK (GIUK) Gap were disrupted\u2014the principal maritime gateway between Russia\u2019s Northern Fleet and the North Atlantic. It is the very same choke point that, until recently, experienced systemic budget cuts and saw Russian submarines breach it in 2019<\/a>. Then, Russia dispatched roughly 20 per cent of its submarines to take part in the exercises, forcing more than 40 NATO aerial missions and untold numbers of undersea missions to try to track and identify the Russian submarines and other naval assets that spread out through the North Atlantic. Imagine this happening again while Russia simultaneously launches a limited military operation against a NATO member, designed not to defeat the Alliance outright but to test its political cohesion and response.<\/p>\n In utilizing the Arctic, the goal will be to force NATO to simultaneously confront a series of coordinated crises. This will open a window for Russia, China, or any other potential adversary to begin conducting major stress tests of the alliance or pursue strategic objectives. Whether it be Iran starting a renewed Suez Canal or Strait of Hormuz crisis threatening NATO access to energy, China choosing to test the waters of the Taiwan Strait, or Russia beginning to probe NATO air defenses or wage hybrid warfare, and more.<\/p>\n Beyond the use of applying pressure and causing dilemmas at the worst possible time for NATO, its also important to note the increasing usage of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). With changing global temperatures opening new shipping routes in the Arctic and continued geopolitical strife at major choke points for current trade routes through the Suez and the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and China have been busy modernizing and investing in critical infrastructure to open and exploit potential new trade routes.<\/p>\n Meaning that Russia\u2019s continued Arctic dominance and China\u2019s rising influence undoubtedly give them not only significantly more military options but also very real political and economic leverage. The point should be clear: NATO cannot afford to continue to treat the Arctic as a peripheral or low-risk area. In a new study<\/a> conducted by the Danube Institute, Danube researchers lay out in more detail how, if things remain the same, the Arctic can be used by competitors to try to weaken and degrade NATO while staying under the threshold of war.<\/p>\n \u2018The point should be clear: NATO cannot afford to continue to treat the Arctic as a peripheral or low-risk area\u2019<\/p>\n The solution is not simply to put more troops in the Arctic. NATO needs to make the region harder to use as a source of strategic ambiguity. That means improving persistent Arctic domain awareness, expanding undersea infrastructure monitoring, strengthening allied icebreaking and logistics capabilities, and, most importantly, integrating the Arctic and North Atlantic into a more coherent strategic framework.<\/p>\n As geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the self-proclaimed 2027 deadline set by China to be ready and capable of invading Taiwan approaches, NATO nations now more than ever need to close the capability gaps in the Great White North. Great strides have been made, but there\u2019s much more work to be done if we wish to deny potential adversaries any opportunities to weaponize our planet\u2019s poles against us.<\/p>\n Related articles:<\/p>\n \n At a time when public debate is increasingly polarized and superficial, Hungarian Conservative remains committed to depth, intellectual honesty, and independent conservative thought.\n <\/p>\n \n Producing high-quality journalism requires resources. 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