bbc.com<\/a>.<\/p>\nAccording to some reports, the visit to Moscow this week by U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe may have been connected, among other things, with warning the Russian authorities against attacking a NATO member state.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Western officials believe that Moscow\u2019s latest threats do not indicate a fundamentally new approach. These include statements about possible strikes against British military personnel or defense-industry facilities.<\/p>\n
Russian rhetoric as a tool of pressure<\/p>\n
In the officials\u2019 view, such statements are consistent with Russian military doctrine, which involves applying psychological and political pressure on Western countries. The Kremlin is seeking to weaken the allies\u2019 willingness to support Ukraine and make them act more cautiously by exploiting fears of further escalation.<\/p>\n
The aggressive statements may also be a reaction to Russia\u2019s domestic problems. Putin is facing growing pressure because of the slow and extremely costly advance of Russian forces in Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian long-range strikes against targets deep inside Russian territory.<\/p>\n
Putin himself and his representatives have repeatedly dismissed warnings of a possible Russian attack on NATO countries as \u201chysteria.\u201d U.S. President Donald Trump also said this week that the Russian leader \u201cis not going to attack NATO territory.\u201d<\/p>\n
At the same time, Western countries are taking past experience into account. Shortly before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Putin publicly denied any intention of attacking a neighboring country, even though U.S. intelligence already had compelling evidence of large-scale preparations for war.<\/p>\n
The risk of miscalculation<\/p>\n
Western officials believe that Russia\u2019s intimidation strategy is intended to undermine Western unity and its continued assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, this policy carries the risk of a miscalculation that could lead to a direct military confrontation.<\/p>\n
Drone incidents in various NATO countries are a particular source of concern. Earlier this month, a drone carrying explosives reached the runway at Leipzig Airport in Germany, an important logistics hub for transporting military equipment to Ukraine.<\/p>\n
There is no evidence of a direct link between the incident and Russia. Moscow denies any involvement. Russia is also suspected of a series of other drone incidents involving sightings over European airports and military bases since last year.<\/p>\n
We must take into account the possibility of direct and more aggressive hostile actions on our territory.<\/p>\n
\u2013 head of the French intelligence services<\/p>\n
Following the incident in Leipzig, one of the heads of the French intelligence services urged people to consider the possibility of more direct and aggressive hostile actions. At the same time, Western officials emphasize that NATO allies need to remain calm without losing vigilance.<\/p>\n
The British government has already made clear that Russian threats will not change its position or force it to abandon its support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n
The war is exhausting Russia<\/p>\n
According to Western officials, the war in Ukraine has intensified this year as Moscow and Kyiv have made greater use of long-range weapons. Despite this, Putin has not abandoned his maximalist war aims.<\/p>\n
At the same time, signs of growing discontent are emerging in Russia. Fuel shortages are already affecting public sentiment and the level of support for the war. Political pressure on the Russian president is increasing, but it does not currently pose a critical threat to his power.<\/p>\n
Russian forces continue to advance slowly in the eastern Donbas, but are suffering significant losses. According to Western officials, the monthly number of Russian military personnel killed and wounded exceeds the number of recruits by approximately 6,000.<\/p>\n
Thus, Moscow continues to use threats and harsh rhetoric to pressure the West, but a direct confrontation with NATO likely does not serve Putin\u2019s aims. At the same time, the increasing intensity of the war and the risks of sabotage are raising the danger of an unpredictable escalation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Behind Moscow\u2019s harshest warnings, Western officials see a calculated attempt to frighten allies without crossing the line into…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12493,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5036,54,7463,7462,1456,7464,7465,7466],"class_list":["post-12492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-nato-security","tag-news","tag-putin-nato-tensions","tag-putin-nato-tensions-russia-nato-conflict-russian-threats-ukraine-war-escalation-western-intelligence-nato-security","tag-russia-nato-conflict","tag-russian-threats","tag-ukraine-war-escalation","tag-western-intelligence"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}