Russia\u2019s failed drone attack on a German airport was part of a dangerous pattern of escalation that, experts and officials said, risks sparking an open confrontation with NATO \u2014 whether the Kremlin wants it or not.<\/p>\n
German officials declared this week<\/a> that the Russian state was behind the attack, in which one explosive drone hit a parked Ukrainian cargo plane and another appeared to collide with a plane taking off. Both drones failed to detonate. If successful, the attack could have killed or maimed people and led to unpredictable consequences, officials said.<\/p>\n It was the most dramatic in a spate of such attacks that includes plots to place incendiary devices aboard DHL cargo planes, blow up railroad tracks in Poland, and burn down warehouses and shopping centers all over Europe.<\/p>\n Such attacks began occurring shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, part of an effort by President Vladimir V. Putin to bring the war to the West. But they have recently increased in frequency and intensity, Western security officials said. The attacks, along with recent reports citing Western intelligence services suggesting Russia could be planning some kind of military incursion or provocation along NATO\u2019s eastern flank, have frazzled Europe and left officials there casting about for solutions.<\/p>\n \u201cEuropeans are faced with the hard truth that this is the new normal,\u201d Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Union\u2019s executive arm, said on Wednesday. \u201cWe have to step up, and that means being ready to respond to Russia\u2019s recklessness better and faster.\u201d<\/p>\n The uptick in attacks appears to be driven in part by Mr. Putin\u2019s frustration with the situation on the battlefield, experts said. Progress is slow and casualties are enormous, while Russia\u2019s economy has been strained by a Ukrainian campaign of long-range strikes against e-commerce warehouses, oil refineries and military logistics hubs. In Mr. Putin\u2019s mind, Russia is not just at war with Ukraine, experts said. It is also battling what he calls the \u201ccollective West\u201d that he blames for providing the weapons, intelligence and technologies that have kept the Ukrainians in the fight.<\/p>\n Mr. Putin has always denied Russia\u2019s involvement in European sabotage and suggested that the German authorities had planted evidence of Russia\u2019s involvement in the Leipzig attack. But he referred to the West this week as \u201cthe sharks of imperialism\u201d and suggested Russia\u2019s enemies would get what they deserved.<\/p>\n \u201cIf anyone tries to drag us down the food chain and gobble us up, devour us, they might get a punch in the teeth,\u201d Mr. Putin said at a news conference. \u201cAnd Russia is ready to do this, despite the rapidly growing appetites and teeth of these sharks.\u201d<\/p>\n The German authorities also opened investigations into possible sabotage attacks on a defense contractor in Munich and two electrical substations; a fire erupted at a drone factory in Poland that officials said was most likely caused by sabotage; and Denmark\u2019s intelligence service said Russia was recruiting Danes to attack defense firms.<\/p>\n That was only this week.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia is both planning and carrying out acts of sabotage against defense companies and the defense industry in Europe,\u201d the Danish intelligence service, PET, said in a statement. \u201cRussian intelligence services are actively preparing acts of sabotage directed at the defense industry in Denmark.\u201d<\/p>\n No one has been killed or seriously injured in the attacks, but any bloodshed would present a profound crisis for NATO, which was created to deter and fight a land invasion and lacks the tools to respond to a slowly escalating conflict. Already it has struggled with how to adequately respond to Russia\u2019s aggression.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia has gotten pretty lucky,\u201d said Julianne Smith, the former U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Biden administration. \u201cAt some point, it is going to go off the rails and somebody is going to get hurt and it\u2019s going to present a different dilemma for the alliance.\u201d<\/p>\n In response to the attack in Leipzig, Germany announced the closure of a diplomatic mission and additional travel restrictions on Russians, among other measures. Publicly accusing Russia in connection with such activities is rare, in part because it can be hard to draw a direct line between the perpetrators and the Russian state.<\/p>\n