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<\/p>\nThinking Beyond the Baltics for Deterring Russia<\/p>\n
A rebalancing of the NATO Alliance should not involve Europe replacing US capabilities on a like-for-like basis.<\/p>\n
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In spite of reassuring words in the most recent NATO summit communique<\/a>, there is still considerable debate over how Europe should prepare for reduced American involvement in European defence, given the focus on \u2018rebalancing\u2019 the Alliance. This often begins by asking how European allies might replace the capabilities<\/a> the US would contribute to NATO\u2019s existing plans. But it should also ask how the wider strategic context that reduces US involvement changes the problem Europe is trying to solve. For example, a crisis or major war between the US and a near-peer China would not simply reduce the American military resources available to Europe<\/a>; it would fundamentally reshape the conditions under which Europe would have to deter Russia.<\/p>\n Discussion of European defence remains largely regional in character. Rather than treating deterrence in Europe as one component of a wider global strategic competition, it continues to revolve around a relatively narrow set of contingencies. This has encouraged a conception of European defence that may be difficult to resource without sustained American support and whose suitability for shaping the wider strategic balance is open to question.<\/p>\n