{"id":8553,"date":"2026-07-22T15:12:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T15:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/8553\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T15:12:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T15:12:09","slug":"trumps-f-35-gamble-with-recep-tayyip-erdogan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/8553\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s F-35 gamble with Recep Tayyip Erdogan"},"content":{"rendered":"

On July 7, on the sidelines of the NATO summit<\/a> in Ankara, US President Donald Trump met the media together with Turkey\u2019s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.<\/a><\/p>\n

Trump used the occasion to announce that the US would be lifting the sanctions that had been imposed on Turkey in December 2020 under the CAATS (Countering America\u2019s Adversaries Through Sanctions) Act.<\/p>\n

Turkey had been sanctioned because Erdogan, in defiance of Washington\u2019s express warnings, had gone ahead and purchased the Russian S-400, a long-range surface-to-air missile system specifically designed as a defense against aircraft such as the F-35<\/a>, the advanced multi-role stealth fighter that has become the cornerstone of America\u2019s tactical air power.<\/p>\n

Trump was then asked whether Turkey would be allowed to buy the F-35.
\u201cTurkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that we thought would be loyal,\u201d he replied, \u201c\u2026so it is something we definitely would consider.\u201d<\/p>\n

That was an astonishing response, given that Turkey is still deploying the S-400 system.<\/p>\n

\"TurkishTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes US President Donald Trump ahead of the 36th NATO Heads of State and Government Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on July 07, 2026 (credit: JONATHAN ERNST\/REUTERS)<\/p>\n

It was Erdogan\u2019s decision to acquire the S-400 that got him ejected from the F-35 program in 2017. As soon as he announced his intention to do so, Washington made it clear that any attempt to fly US F-35s and simultaneously operate the Russian S-400 defense system was an absolute non-starter. It would effectively turn the S-400 into a live intelligence-collection platform on the F-35\u2019s stealth and mission-system profile.<\/p>\n

What was obvious then remains obvious today. If F-35s routinely flew within range of an operational S-400, the Russian-designed radars could collect enormous quantities of data about the aircraft\u2019s radar signature, flight profiles, electronic emissions, and tactics. Highly classified information about the F-35\u2019s stealth characteristics could be exposed.<\/p>\n

That concern explains why Congress enacted legislation barring the transfer of F-35s to Turkey while it retains the Russian S-400 air defense system.<\/p>\n

It has not prevented continued low-level negotiations between Turkey and the US about the possibility of Turkey rejoining the F-35 program. On December 10, 2025, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack<\/a> wrote on social media that the US was in ongoing discussions with Turkey \u201cregarding their desire to rejoin the F-35 program and their possession of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system<\/a>. As laid out in US law, Turkey must no longer operate nor possess the S-400 system to return to the F-35 program.\u201d<\/p>\n

By April 2026, Barrack\u2019s stance had hardened. Speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum<\/a>, he expressed confidence that the long-running dispute over Turkey\u2019s Russian-made S-400 air-defense system was nearing resolution. \u201cI think you\u2019re going to see the S-400 [problem] solved soon,\u201d he said. \u201cFrom my boss\u2019s point of view, acceptance into an F-35 program is fine.\u201d<\/p>\n

There may be political and practical reasons for Trump\u2019s change of heart.
Deteriorating relations with Iran has made Turkey\u2019s strategic value to Washington considerably greater. Turkey controls NATO\u2019s southeastern flank and borders Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Trump may judge that rebuilding the alliance with Ankara is now a priority.<\/p>\n

Moreover, a confidential understanding may have been reached over the S-400. Although nothing has been announced publicly, media reports suggest that there have been discussions about deactivating the system. Reuters notes that transferring the system to a third country is another proposal under discussion.<\/p>\n

Congress has not changed the statutory restrictions of the sale of the F-35, meaning that any proposal to do so could face a significant legal and political battle. Trump may be prepared to challenge Congress. But all he may be signaling is intent rather than a settled policy. All he said was that he will lift sanctions and \u201cconsider\u201d F-35 sales.<\/p>\n

If Erdogan ultimately wins the F-35 struggle, then either Turkey has to remove, export, or permanently deactivate the S-400; or Congress has to agree to relax or amend the legal restrictions despite the continued presence of the S-400.<\/p>\n

Currently, there is no evidence that the first has occurred, while there is substantial evidence of bipartisan resistance in Congress to the second. That is why, despite Trump\u2019s dramatic shift in tone, the path to restoring Turkey\u2019s F-35 status remains uncertain.<\/p>\n

The Greece precedent complicates the debate<\/p>\n

Speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on April 17, Barrack threw in a casual remark that raised a few eyebrows at the time, but has not been followed up.
\u201cGreece has S-300s and F-35s,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Greece, like Turkey, is a NATO member. Could it possibly be deploying the advanced US fighter and the Russian anti-missile defense system at the same time \u2013 the very situation that Washington totally vetoed in the case of Turkey?<\/p>\n

An examination reveals a complicated but innocuous situation that has little in common with Turkey\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Barrack was entirely accurate when he spoke of the S-300, an older version with significantly more limited capabilities than the S-400. Moreover the S-300 system operated by Greece was not a Greek purchase.<\/p>\n

In 1997, Glafcos Clerides\u2019s government in Cyprus ordered two S-300 PMU-1 batteries from Russia. Turkey threatened military action if the missiles were deployed in Cyprus. After a major diplomatic crisis involving the US, Britain, and NATO, Cyprus agreed not to install them. In 1998-1999, the missiles were transferred to Greece.<\/p>\n

So Greece inherited the S-300, designed during the late Soviet period and delivered more than 25 years ago.<\/p>\n

US officials have consistently argued that Turkey\u2019s case is fundamentally different. Despite repeated US warnings, Turkey deliberately negotiated a major strategic defense contract with Russia in 2017, and it bought the far newer S-400 Triumf, one of Russia\u2019s most advanced strategic air-defense systems.<\/p>\n

As for the F-35s, in January 2024 the US State Department approved the sale of 40 Lightning II aircraft to Greece.<\/p>\n

On July 8, following the NATO summit in Ankara, Greece\u2019s prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, told Greek journalists: \u201cGreek pilots will begin training on the Greek F-35s in 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n

Greece\u2019s situation may indeed be different from Turkey\u2019s, but a convincing case could be made for a precedent having been set.<\/p>\n

Could this be the chink that leads to opening the door for Turkey\u2019s acquisition of the F-35?<\/a><\/p>\n

The writer, a former senior civil servant, is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. Follow him at: www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On July 7, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump met the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8554,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[932,57,2336,290,4051,7,20,4140,466],"class_list":["post-8553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-defense-tech","tag-donald-trump","tag-erdogan","tag-f-35","tag-greece","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-s-400","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8553\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}