{"id":9914,"date":"2026-08-07T11:01:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T11:01:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/9914\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T11:01:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T11:01:13","slug":"putin-may-test-nato-this-fall-us-intelligence-releases-new-assessments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/9914\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin may test NATO this fall: US intelligence releases new assessments"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/images.cnscdn.com\/0\/b\/9\/d\/0b9d3d54bebac647692acf2774a6a4c5\/original.jpg\" class=\"top_img_loader\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1786100473_39_300x173.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"173\" alt=\"Putin\"\/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>U.S. intelligence agencies have revised their assessments regarding the likelihood of a direct conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/europe\/u-s-intel-finds-putin-could-test-natos-resolve-with-limited-incursion-e3b02e2c\" target=\"_blank\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a>, citing new reports from U.S. officials, the Kremlin may resort to a limited provocation against one of the NATO countries without waiting for the war in Ukraine to end, reports <a href=\"https:\/\/censor.net\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Censor.NET<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"related-news\">Read more on our <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/censor_net\">Telegram channel<\/a><\/p>\n<p> Details <\/p>\n<p>According to analysts, the window of opportunity for possible Russian actions opens this fall and extends through 2029.<\/p>\n<p>The main objective of a potential attack is to test the effectiveness of Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense and to attempt to provoke a rift within the Alliance.<\/p>\n<p>Various scenarios are being considered\u2014ranging from large-scale cyberattacks and the deployment of unidentified armed groups to occupy specific areas to a limited ground invasion on NATO\u2019s eastern flank.<\/p>\n<p>The likelihood of the most extreme scenario\u2014a localized ground invasion\u2014is currently assessed as relatively low, but analysts note that it is increasing over time.<\/p>\n<p>Facing pressure due to significant losses on the front lines and systematic strikes by Ukrainian drones on military and oil infrastructure, the Russian leader may seek &#8220;successes&#8221; in other areas.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, the WSJ notes that this threat arises against the backdrop of a shortage of certain types of weapons within the United States itself, specifically long-range precision-guided missiles, tactical systems, and Stinger man-portable air defense systems. This complicates the task of deterring two potential adversaries\u2014Russia in Europe and China in Asia<\/p>\n<p class=\"related-news\">Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/censor.net\/en\/news\/4017246\/ukraine-plans-new-sanctions-targeting-russia-s-military-industry\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zelenskyy instructs officials to prepare special sanctions operation plan to restrict Russia\u2019s military industry<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"U.S. intelligence agencies have revised their assessments regarding the likelihood of a direct conflict between Russia and the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9915,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[7,20,130],"class_list":["post-9914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9914\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/nato\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}