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Recent share performance and business scale
ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) has drawn investor attention after a mixed short term share performance, with the stock down 4.4% over the past day but slightly higher over the past week.
Over the past month, the stock is up about 5%, and over the past 3 months it is higher by roughly 9%. Year to date, the return stands at about 32%, while the 1 year total return is close to 99%.
Over longer horizons, ASML Holding reports 3 year total returns around 109% and 5 year total returns around 155%. At the last close, the stock traded at €1,306.60, giving the company a market value of about €502.8b.
On the fundamental side, ASML Holding reports revenue of about €33.7b and net income of roughly €10.0b from its core activity of developing, producing, marketing, selling, upgrading and servicing advanced semiconductor equipment systems.
See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.
Recent trading has been choppy, with the 1 day share price return down 4.42%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 98.83% and 5 year total shareholder return of 155.07% point to strong longer term momentum from a relatively high starting share price of €1,306.60.
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With ASML Holding reporting revenue of about €33.7b, net income of roughly €10.0b and a market value near €502.8b, is the current share price offering value, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 51.1% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, ASML Holding’s fair value of about €864.91 sits well below the recent share price of €1,306.60, which frames the current debate around how much optimism is already in the stock.
Valuation metrics also underpin the strength of ASML: with a forecast FY25 EPS of €22.20 and a forward P/E of 39 (5-year average), the intrinsic value for the company is more than €865, representing substantial upside for long-term investors. Notwithstanding geopolitical risks, ASML has monopolistic power and technological advantages that place it at the heart of the semiconductor industry, making it impossible for any investor to resist the company.
Curious what drives a fair value well below where the stock trades today? The narrative leans heavily on long run revenue growth, rising earnings, and firm margins, built into a detailed cash flow path that may surprise you once you see the exact assumptions behind it.
Result: Fair Value of €864.91 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this upbeat view could be challenged if export controls tighten further or if new competitors narrow the lead of ASML Holding in advanced lithography equipment.
Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.
Another view on valuation multiples
That fair value of about €864.91 suggests ASML Holding is overvalued, but the current market multiples tell a slightly different story. At a P/E of 50.2x, the stock trades below both the European Semiconductor industry average of 58.2x and a peer group average of 68.3x, and only slightly above a fair ratio of 49.6x.
In plain terms, the share price is high, yet not out of line with how similar companies and the fair ratio are being priced. This raises a simple question for you as an investor: is this a premium that still feels acceptable for the quality and growth on offer?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
ENXTAM:ASML P/E Ratio as at May 2026 Next Steps
With sentiment clearly split between valuation risk and quality arguments, it makes sense to review the data yourself and decide quickly where you stand using 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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