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ASML Holding’s fair value estimate has been updated from €1,463.42 to €1,482.76, a modest uplift of about 1.3% in the implied value per share. This shift sits alongside a cluster of upward price target revisions from analysts who are focused on lithography demand, exposure to memory and North American customers, and sector supply conditions. As you read on, you will see how these moving targets feed into the broader analyst narrative and what to watch as it continues to evolve.
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What Wall Street Has Been Saying 🐂 Bullish Takeaways
UBS lifted its ASML price target to €1,900 from €1,600 and highlights what it sees as a unique position within European semiconductors, which supports a higher implied valuation range than before.
UBS points to sustained lithography capacity demand, together with ASML’s exposure to memory customers and North America, as key pillars for its risk and reward view at recent share levels.
BofA raised its ASML price target to €1,886 from €1,868 after increasing its calendar year 2026 to 2028 EPS estimates by 4% to 6%, citing expectations for tight Foundry and DRAM supply.
A series of upward price target revisions from firms including Berenberg, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital, Susquehanna, Citi, Wells Fargo and Barclays signals broad analyst support for ASML’s execution and product positioning.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Even with higher targets from UBS and BofA, investors face the risk that Foundry or DRAM supply conditions or lithography spending plans evolve differently from current analyst assumptions, which could challenge these valuation frameworks.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
We’ve flagged 1 risk for ASML Holding. See which could impact your investment.
What’s in the News
Big technology companies are increasing spending on AI related infrastructure, and ASML is seeing higher demand for its chipmaking tools as part of that trend, according to the Wall Street Journal.
TSMC’s deputy co COO stated that TSMC will not use ASML’s newest chipmaking machine, which puts attention on how quickly the latest tools are adopted across different customers, Bloomberg reported.
SK Hynix plans to buy €8b of chipmaking tools from ASML, pointing to continued equipment orders from a major memory customer, based on Bloomberg coverage.
Story Continues
How This Changes the Fair Value For ASML Holding
Fair value updated from €1,463.42 to €1,482.76, a change of about 1.3% in the implied value per share.
Revenue growth assumption adjusted from 16.07% to 16.44% for long term euro denominated sales.
Net profit margin revised from 34.30% to 34.51% of euro revenues.
Future P/E moved from 38.0x to 39.8x in the updated work.
Discount rate moved from 8.69% to 9.15% for future cash flows.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect a company’s business story with analyst forecasts and a fair value framework, so you can see how assumptions, risks, and earnings expectations fit together. They update as new research and news flow through, keeping the core thesis current.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on ASML Holding to stay up to date on:
How EUV and High NA platforms, including the NXE:3800E, are expected to support lithography adoption, productivity, and cost of technology reduction over time.
Analyst expectations that AI related semiconductor demand, High NA system ramp up, and Installed Base Management services could support future revenue and earnings.
Key risks around tariffs, geopolitics, High NA adoption timing, macro conditions, and order variability that could challenge the forecasted growth path.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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