ASML Holding N.V. recently reported second-quarter 2026 results showing higher revenue and earnings versus a year earlier, raised its full-year 2026 net sales guidance to between €43.00 billion and €45.00 billion, confirmed third-quarter guidance of €11.00 billion to €12.00 billion in net sales, and declared an interim 2026 dividend of €1.88 per share payable on August 5, 2026.
Alongside these results, ASML highlighted that Intel Foundry has entered high-volume manufacturing of select Intel Core Ultra Series 3 “Panther Lake” processors on Intel 18A using ASML’s High NA EUV systems, underscoring early real-world deployment of the company’s next-generation lithography technology.
We’ll now examine how ASML’s upgraded 2026 sales outlook, underpinned by High NA EUV adoption at Intel, feeds into its investment narrative.
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ASML Holding Investment Narrative Recap
To own ASML, you generally have to believe that EUV and now High NA EUV remain essential for leading-edge chips, and that AI-driven capacity investment stays supportive enough to absorb the company’s growing tool output. The immediate upside catalyst is execution on High NA ramp and conversion of the raised 2026 net sales guidance into orders and shipments. The biggest risk is that foundry and memory customers moderate capital spending, which this guidance upgrade does not eliminate.
The Intel Foundry announcement looks especially important here: Intel is already in high-volume manufacturing on Intel 18A using ASML’s High NA EUV systems, with production yields matched to the existing NXE platform. That puts real-world proof behind ASML’s High NA roadmap and directly links the upgraded 2026 sales outlook to concrete customer adoption, rather than just lab milestones. For many investors, this is the clearest sign yet that High NA is moving beyond R&D into…
Read the full narrative on ASML Holding (it’s free!)
ASML Holding’s narrative projects €60.9 billion revenue and €22.2 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 21.8% yearly revenue growth and a €12.2 billion earnings increase from €10.0 billion today.
Uncover how ASML Holding’s forecasts yield a €1838 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives 
ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Some of the lowest analysts were assuming ASML’s revenue would reach only about €42.8 billion and earnings €14.7 billion by 2029, which is a far more cautious view than the recent guidance and raises fair questions about whether High NA uptake, geopolitics and AI spending will evolve in line with the optimistic or pessimistic camp, inviting you to compare these very different paths before deciding where you stand.
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Form Your Own Verdict
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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