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ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) is back in focus after reporting first quarter results ahead of expectations and raising its 2026 revenue outlook, while at the same time flagging softer near term guidance and China related headwinds.
See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.
The share price reaction to the Q1 update has been mixed, with a 1 month share price return of 4.45% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 122.45%. This suggests strong longer term momentum despite recent volatility around export control risks and guidance.
If AI driven chip demand has your attention, it may also be worth scanning other enablers of this trend through our 38 AI infrastructure stocks
With ASML now trading around €1,244 and sitting near parity with many U.S. peers despite its unique EUV position, the key question for you is simple: is there still mispricing here, or has the market already baked in future growth?
According to the leading narrative, ASML’s fair value sits at €864.91, which is well below the recent share price of €1,244.
Valuation metrics also underpin the strength of ASML: with a forecast FY25 EPS of €22.20 and a forward P/E of 39 (5-year average), the intrinsic value for the company is more than €865, representing substantial upside for long-term investors. Notwithstanding geopolitical risks, ASML has monopolistic power and technological advantages that place it at the heart of the semiconductor industry, making it impossible for any investor to resist the company.
Curious how a company viewed as a monopoly supplier can still be priced above its own fair value estimate? The narrative leans heavily on robust earnings expectations and rich profit margins, plus a relatively high future multiple that assumes a lot has to go right.
Result: Fair Value of €864.91 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on export controls and China exposure not tightening further, and on global chip capex remaining strong enough to support ASML’s high multiples.
Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.
That user narrative leans on a fair value of €864.91, which implies ASML looks expensive at €1,244. Yet on a simple P/E basis, the picture is softer. ASML trades on 47.8x earnings, compared with 55.8x for the wider European semiconductor group and 70.9x for its peer set.
The fair ratio sits at 50x, only slightly above today’s 47.8x. In practice, that means the share price is already in the same ballpark as where the regression model suggests the market could move, so any mispricing may be more about your expectations than a clear gap in the numbers.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
ENXTAM:ASML P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026
Given how split the signals are so far, it makes sense to look at the full picture yourself and decide where you stand. If you want a clear snapshot of both the concerns and the upside investors are focused on right now, check out the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
If ASML is already on your radar, now is a good moment to widen your watchlist with other ideas that fit clear, high conviction criteria.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASML.AS.
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